What will life be like under Reform?

[Easipeelerie]

I have accepted the likelihood of the next government being Reform. I don’t think the government after that will necessarily be Reform. But in the 4 Reform years, what do people think life will be like for the different groups in our country? Will we see very immediate changes?

It will be shit. End of. No human rights. No NHS. No benefits if you are unlucky to be ill, lose job or become disabled. Rich people will become richer. Less freedom of speech.

It would be another kneejerk voting reaction......Just like the last one.

Reform won’t get rid of the NHS, they said they’d have employer private insurerance working along side it. You won’t need to get a cheque book out to pay for treatment if you can’t afford it.

I think Farage is looking at other EU countries who have a decent healthcare system- I think it’s right to look at other options.

The NHS already has privatisation in it anyway, most GP surgeries are ran by partnerships.

Maybe Reform winning would be a shock to the main political parties and give them the wake up call they need.

Even so it’s a long way off and Reform would need to win a heck of a lot of seats to get into government- well 326 for a majority. What do they have now ? Six or seven ?

They would have to form a coalition government even if they became the largest party and failed to get a majority.

However , the greens may steal votes from Labour , the Lib Dem’s also and the Tories will lose more voters to Reform. And so may Labour.

The days of the two party race is coming to an end. In my opinion.

The demise of the NHS would not be great for us as we are just reaching the age we might need it. The lack of investment in SEN would affect my grandchildren and decimation of public services would affect my daughters and son in laws jobs. I hope it never happens.

DS2 who's profoundly autistic and has LDs might find his school closed, provision withdrawn, and any tenuous adult services currently in place - forget it. They've made that very clear.

Hope none of us get seriously unwell.

We will be so far up Trump/Vance's back passage we'll be stumbling around in the dark.

I assume they'll tank the economy because they're not country runners or experts or even politicians. So the social deprivation that leads people to vote for this rubbish populist parties out of desperation and frustration will further tear the country apart.

Not going to happen. People be dumb but not that dumb

Well... they were dumb enough to vote in Labour. A similarly populist party, with no experience of government and no clue about economics. Actually, Labour has even less clue, with 90% of their MPs never having worked in the private sector - which definitely shows. Reform MPs have experience in the real world at least, so might trash our economy slightly less.

By the time the election comes, even Labour lies won't be able to hide the destruction they've caused. Do you think people will learn from that mistake, and vote for a party which actually thinks through their policies? Conservatives really are the only option.

Or even worse than Reform, will we end up with the crazy Left alliance burning down what's left of our country, with Landlords banished and all drugs legalised?

Tories? Economic competence?

So wasting 11 billion to fraud and spending 29 billion on a railway they then cancelled.. 29bn gone!
A recession in Q3/4 of 2023....

The state of maternity services under their tenure? Brexit costing the country billions and stopping us returning x ch migrants to France - Did we use Hotels pre Brexit? nope.
They did nothing about the 'boats, hence the trade in migrants is now almost impossible to stop, Rwanda cost almost 1billion and returned not one x ch migrant.

None of that strikes me of "Economic Competence" with Badenoch at the heart of all of the above.

But what they cannot ever escape from is that they had 14years to show us how they could transform the country but look at what they did? nothing works, they couldn't even keep the justice system working.

Whatever the faults with Labour, the Tories are never the answer, they'll be gone by the next election.

My guess is most of the reform MPs will have little experience of government or running big businessess and be way out of their depth. , much like all the existing MPs.

Heaven help us...

How can any new Govt, formed from a party which is either new or been in opposition for several years, have "Experience of Govt?"

Just as the Tories didn't in 2010.

Not really sure why running big business experience is a pre requisite, when you consider the Covid fraud was all committed by people running businesses.

There was a big outcry when Reeves hiked businesses taxes, yet people who complain about this, will vote Reform who want to hit business with Health insurance (ie Tax) to fund the NHS.

Funny how neither Reform or Tories are saying they will refuse the NI increases.

I thought people weren’t that stupid until the Brexit vote. Now I know the average person is an idiot

You know the report on covid spending is out, right?

Some errors, which are pretty much to be expected during an unprecedented global emergency when fast action was needed, and millions of lives at risk

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c075vjxyx3no

Most public bodies were unprepared for "a crisis that required spending on such a scale and with such urgency".

"Consequently, some measures to protect against potential fraud were inadequate."

The report acknowledges that the schemes were designed and rolled out at speed, and My Hayhoe paid tribute to public servants who "were working their socks off in really difficult time during the crisis".

However, given the pressure they "did things that in retrospect were not necessarily the right things", he said. The report recommends that fraud prevention should be more embedded into future disaster responses.

No government corruption - it turns out that was the usual Labour lies.

Thank fuck the pandemic didn't happen on Labour's watch!! With their authoritarianism, incompetence and recently-evidenced lack of moral compass, we would have come out of it 10 times worse.

I can't believe you have the gall to blame the failure of the Rwanda scheme on the Conservatives! It's a mechanism which has been proved to work in other countries, and was our best hope of stopping illegal economic immigration. It was blocked and cancelled by Labour! A working solution was handed to Labour, and they threw it away.

Have you seen recent polls? Every day Labour is in power, their popularity goes down as they show - again and again - they can't govern. It's Labour who will never get into government again after this shitshow. Even the Unions have turned against them.

The biggest danger now is where mindless ideologists on the left will place their vote now.

One by one, Labour and the Conservatives are copying Reform policies. It’s just been on the BBC that Starmer wants talks on changes to the ECHR regarding migration.

. Traders are not businessmen. They are about risk and reward, not stability; and playing the market is not the same as building an economy.
Agree trading oil is a million miles away from building an oil company. It is about psychology of people and likelihood f events happening or not.
Good Traders, and he was have to keep their heads in times of crisis and manage money/position size.

So European ministers are now back changes to the ECHR.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g03gv2z6o
Many countries are realising that there needs to be control on immigration.

More sensible interpretation of the ECHR would be good - until we can exit it. It has brought some genuine benefits, but not enough to justify the cost - both financial and social/cultural. It currently mainly benefits foreign criminals and illegal immigrants , and the cost is paid by UK society.

The EHCR didn't protect British children when the courts ruled that although the UK government was indeed harming their human rights, they were allowed to because the mechanism was maliciously targeted taxation and EHCR won't interfere with tax.

It also benefits the immigration industry...but I think their skills and resources could be put to better use: to actually benefit the UK rather than just siphon cash from us.

Bravo to Victoria Derbyshire on news night (apologies for x link!) VD-“ Can I tell you how many times in the last 45 years the ECHR has ruled against the UK when it comes to deporting people from this country?”
Jake Richards -“it’s not many”
VD - “Should I tell you?”
JR - “Please”
VD - “only 13 times & not once in the last 5 years”

Plus only 3 times in 45 years has the ECHR has ruled against the UK regarding its actual immigration policy.

The ECHR protects our basic rights. Don’t believe the right wing hyperbole

https://x.com/peterstefanovi2/status/1999214910887105023

And also don't believe the Left wing deliberate fact-twisting and obfuscation, with occasional outright lies. Have you learned nothing from the BBC fiasco?

Did you bother to check how many times the EHCR ruled against the UK in total, to give context to the numbers they ruled against over immigration?

Did you think about how our judiciary modifies their judgements in anticipation of EHCR rulings? That's where the guidance the EU leaders are proposing would come in, and it can't come soon enough.

Did you not even sense check the "not once in the last 5 years" claim against what you know yourself?. Umm.. Rwanda?!?

I've looked it up for you (spoiler: there aren't many rulings against us, and they're mainly for illegal immigrants/foreign citizens/criminals):

2020:

Unuane v. the United Kingdom, finding the UK breached Article 8 (right to family life) by failing to properly assess the deportation of a Nigerian man with British children, despite applying the UK's immigration rules illegal immigrant

JD & A v. the United Kingdom, decided in 2020, found the UK violated Article 3 (prohibition of torture/inhuman treatment) and Article 5 (right to liberty) for failing to properly investigate alleged torture/ill-treatment by UK forces in Iraq and Article 2 (right to life) for a death in custody, highlighting systemic failures in accountability for serious abuses and impacting detention policies, especially for vulnerable individuals. OK, but not UK citizen. Foreign citizen overseas

Gaughran v. the United Kingdom found the UK violated Article 6(1) (right to a fair trial) due to excessive delays and lack of effective remedy particularly concerning age assessment, meaning the system wasn't providing timely justice for vulnerable individuals; the Court ordered the UK to pay damages, illegal immigrant

2021:

V.C.L. and A.N. v. The United Kingdom where victims (identified as VCL & AN) sued the UK for failing to protect them from exploitation, leading to crucial rulings on state responsibility, especially concerning vulnerable minors trafficked into the UK, illegal immigrant

Mass Surveillance Ruling (May 2021): The ECHR Grand Chamber affirmed that UK mass surveillance programs violated fundamental rights, establishing new rules for bulk interception. !!at lasr, one that protects UK citizens!!!!

Gareth Lee v. The United Kingdom here the bakery refused to make a cake "Support Gay Marriage" since the bakery owners were Christian and said it was against their religion. Arguably not great value for 7 years of legal fight, and arguably bullying the baker. This really isn't a UK society problem. They could very easily have found a different baker

Hammerton v. the United Kingdom was closed because the UK had remedied the breech. Hammerton was denied legal aid during proceedings for contempt - ie disobeying a court order - and he argued that his jail term was longer than it should have been as a result. He got 8400 Euros compensation. The EHCR ruling was that the UK was liable even though the judge had acted on good faith, UK law changed such that individuals can revieve compensation for human rights violations by the courts, even when the judges weren't intentionally malicious. not going above and beyond for a criminal... admittedly a British one

2022

NSK v the United Kingdom The Court granted an urgent interim measure (Rule 39) to stop the planned charter flight deporting an Iraqi asylum seeker to Rwanda, citing risks under Article 3, leading to the temporary halt of the entire Rwanda policy. Many illegal immigrants. Our whole approach to stopping illegal immigration in fact

The UK also received five interim measures in 2022, fewer than many states but significant, focusing on asylum and migration issues illegal immigrants

2023

Wieder and Guarnieri v. United Kingdom: the court ruled that the UK's secret surveillance of individuals abroad, if conducted from its territory, falls within its jurisdiction !!another that protects UK citizens!!!!

2024

Associated Newspapers Ltd v. the United Kingdom: finding a violation of Article 10 (freedom of expression) because the UK ordered the Daily Mail's publisher to pay "success fees" (Conditional Fee Agreements, or CFAs) to successful claimants in privacy/defamation suits, deeming them excessive and a chilling effect on the press, but found no violation regarding After-The-Event (ATE) insurance premiums. The CFA success fees, disproportionately impact media publishers' ability to participate in public debate, eg in one case a publisher paid £822k in costs for an £83k damages award. !!another that protects UK citizens!!!!

2025
Couldn't find any rulings against the UK at all

@circularmadness
The ECHR protects our basic rights. Don’t believe the right wing hyperbole

A bit of hyperbole from you there, perhaps?

It's UK law and practice that protects our human rights, not the ECHR. We've been leaders in human rights ever since the Magna Carta in 1215. We led the abolition of slavery in the early 1800s.

We basically wrote the European Convention on Human Rights based on our own laws and values, and were the first signatory (1950), and the first to ratify it (1951).

And now it's being used against us.

But the UK are adaptable thought leaders. We certainly don't need to stick with something that isn't working - we'll invent something better, as we have so many times before.

I can't believe you have the gall to blame the failure of the Rwanda scheme on the Conservatives! It's a mechanism which has been proved to work in other countries, and was our best hope of stopping illegal economic immigration. It was blocked and cancelled by Labour! A working solution was handed to Labour, and they threw it away

What other countries?

The Tories had 3 years to make Rwanda work, remind me again how many their deported?

How can a party not in Government and with significantly less MPs "Block" Government policy??
The Cons got through ALL their legislation to make Rwanda work.

You re twisting the reality of their failures.

But the biggest issue with Rwanda was that the deal was initially for 500 migrants per year..... up to a max of 5000 over 5 years.

On who people will vote for.... if Rwanda would have been a success, you'll have to explain why Sunak didn't have the GE in October, going to the 'polls with x ch migration halted, 1000s deported to Rwanda... a guaranteed win in the bag....

No, he knew it was a failure, worried about the countries finances and justice system, so bailed out.

Now, people have lost faith in both main parties and are looking elsewhere.

Italy sends people rescued from boats to Albania, and asylum cases are heard from there. Only successful cases are allowed into Italy.

Although they expected to process 36,000 per year (3000 at any one time), they've actually only processed about a hundred so far.

But even with that low number, their illegal migrant arrivals by sea dropped by about 60% in 2024 compared to 2023,

Because it's economic migration. And the potential immigrants change their behaviour in response to policy.

What a surprise that when we welcome illegal immigrants, give them money, accomodation and free electric scooters, turn a blind eye to them working illegally, never deport them, and once they're here open the door to their whole extended family and their favourite neighbour.... they choose to pay people traffickers the money to come here... Who would have imagined?!?

It's so weird the way Labour and their supporters seem to completely ignore the way that people change their behaviour. It happens in all types of policies, but especially immigration, welfare and tax. It's a strange - and very dangerous - blind spot.

Australia's Operation Sovereign Borders policy, which includes offshore processing in Nauru and Manus Island has obviously also been incredibly successful. They have practically no successful illegal arrivals by boat following the implementation of that policy.

Many making the point that the UK's tax system is more heavily weighted upon higher earners than other European countries. None mentioning the obvious reason for this (or at least, reason why it can't be reweighted the other way) - that the UK is much more unequal than those countries. The UK government gets its income tax from the upper middle classes because it CAN - because they can afford to pay substantial tax and still have a decent lifestyle, whereas how do you squeeze more out of people who are barely managing to eat and keep a roof over their heads already? If you want the lower paid to take more of the tax burden, then you need to address factors like extortionate housing costs and energy costs that leave them without the means to do so.

All of which is of course a distraction from the real issue, which is spiralling wealth inequality and the need to rebalance the tax system away from income and towards wealth.

I’ve said this before but maybe Reform winning is what is needed to give the other parties a cold sharp shock.

I have no idea if they would be any good or not but I suppose if they were really that bad they’d be voted out again?

Farage wouldn’t be able to do things as quickly as he said he can , in my opinion, he seems to have easy answers but actually implementing them would be much harder.