This migrant problem is going to let Reform in isn’t it?

[EvangelicalAboutButteredToast]

Honestly it’s such a bloody nightmare. Reform are making a total hash of local government from what I’ve read, putting teenagers in charge of whole departments with no relevant experience. What are they going to do if they are elected to run a country!!!! I’m honestly terrified. Labour need to be seen to be actively doing something to quell the far-right momentum that’s gaining traction from ordinary folk. I’m amazed at the average, usually pretty sensible people around me who are now telling me they are going to vote Reform.

there was an interview I saw yesterday where the minister said that thousands of people were being deported regularly. The interviewer asked why there were no videos of this and she said there could be. Well let’s see it! It would absolutely help.

Do you mean the pp who said that it doesn't take a genius to deduce that the groups of non-English-speaking men who suddenly appeared in her village of 2000 people, and are now hanging around their local park all day with nothing to do are asylum seekers?

Um.. that's quite a lot easier than knowing whether your pizza delivery driver or your building firm's labourer are legally employed. Yes.

And they can be identified as dangerous and not genuine?

Genuine progress would be significant, verified reductions in numbers of:
1.legal immigrants (further drops after the ones from the changes the Conservatives brought in before losing power)
2.small boat arrivals
3.housing of asylum seekers within communities
4.successful asylum claims (total, not percentage)

Each assault against women or children by an illegal immigrant will mean that the numbers would need to drop further and faster in order for it to be considered progress. Not fair (individuals are responsible for their own actions, not a group) but true.

The pp did say that not all would be dangerous. But some are, as seen by the assaults.

There are documented differences in rates of sexual offending by nationality. Not a pleasant fact, but a fact nonetheless.

It's a numbers game.

Do you have a link those documented differences in rates?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/sexualviolenceintheukbyethnicity

Here's an (editorialised) overview if you don't want to wade through the data

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/10/foreigners-commit-up-to-quarter-of-sex-crimes/

Aren’t these stats about victims?

That's what I thought

When I can access my laptop I’ll download the data and have a proper look.

I looked for this a while ago actually, I’m sure they said that they don’t publish or always collect ethnicity data of perpetrators.

Both victims and perpetrators are in there. Checking that data set again though, that one is just ethnicity rather than nationality, which is too broad for understanding immigration.

The telegraph link breaks down conviction rates per 1000 population for different nationalities, based on FOI requests.

<spoiler alert> Afghans and Eritreans had more than 20 times more sexual offence convictions than British citizens per 10000 population of that nationality.

Over a 2 year period, from that FOI request, Afghans were convicted of sexual offences at a rate of 59 per 10,000 of their population versus 2.66 per 10,000 Britons.

So with the pp's 180-man hostel, they could expect an average of 1 sexual offence conviction every 2 years on average by an asylum seeker in the hostel.

Compared to 1 sexual offence conviction every 4 years by anyone else (1800 people) in the village.

That one hostel - 10% of their village population - triples the risk of sexual assault for women in the village.

That's not OK.

And it's what people are seeing played out. Then people on here and politicians try to gaslight them that it's all in their minds - racism and bigotry - when it evidently is not.

A village with a hotel near us had 40 men and two sexual assaults on local women. The hotel shut after 16 weeks. I've read where women get grabbed in the street in broad daylight recently. One man grabbed a second person when the first escaped.

That's sex mad in my book.

Which hotel? Do you have a link please? I vaguely remember something, but can't quite recall the details.

It didn't get into the media. God forbid. There was also a knifing. Our local rural police officer and there's only one covering a huge patch which includes towns, villages and Hamlets.

So how do you know about it?

I am surprised the convictions for sexual assault didn't at least make the Welsh news. Can you name the hotel? I know were a lot of rumours being flung around about one in North Wales, but I can't remember the name of it.

Well if the Jezbollah party gain enough traction to divert a significant number of votes from Labour to them, and Reform take a good piece of the Conservative vote, it’s going to be an interesting election.

Was it this one @justasking111 ?

www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/rubberneckers-coming-stare-scared-young-25497669

Because I live here. It did get onto some social media too. Caused a lot of upset.

Thanks for doing the maths. I was thinking of but thought everyone knows this, and as others say it’s an unpleasant fact so I don’t want to dwell on it to long and didn’t want to pick a specific nationality to single out.

But it is bold when you put it like that. That is a completely unacceptable level of risk to women and girls.

And talking of different nationalities I wonder whether asylum seekers are housed together. As in you have a boat from x they all come clustered together as would have met at Calais and grouped based on common origin? If that’s the case and you have a cluster effect on nationality then it’s no wonder some say their hotel is absolutely fine, and others say it’s really awful in terms of effect on safety in their village/ town.

Another point I want to make about your statistics. Is it’s actually worse than that in real life. Because let’s make this now a hypothetical village where it is in fact nearly all afghan and Eritrean men. In these circumstances the resident population is not transient, and I am going to propose that it’s not a case of each and every man having an equal risk of being a sex offender which refreshes every year. So a village of 2000 residents who are largely homeowner, long term rent and social housing is not having a risk of one sex offence every 4 years. Here you need to figure out the turnover of the town of new British residents. A village of 2000 could in fact take decades to produce one of the 2 in 10,000 sex offenders as the turn over of residents is low. With the hotel having the opposite effect of multiplying this already high risk as it turns over much quicker.

Well I'm voting reform. Labour have just fallen straight back into give out sweeties to their voters and expect the few to pay for it. The Conservatives are barely any better. Farage will come in and cut spending and tax. We can't keep the cycle of spend more and tax more going forever.

How will he cut tax when he wants to create an expensive new insurance based healthcare system which will cost billions.

How exactly will he control borders?

The Reform controlled councils are already costing tax payers more!

You all have a friend in Trump and the likes of Tommy Robinson when it comes to anti immigration sentiments.

He'll handover the cost if healthcare to one of the big boys eg BlackRock. The pension funds etc have the money

We're getting two new reservoirs one in the fens Norfolk, one in Abingdon. Theyre being built with overseas investment money. Thames water to administrate one, Anglia water the other. And that's under labour.