Scared about a poll I read where Reform wins outright in First Past the Post????

[fixingmylife]

I guess we are years away from a General Election, but I am scared about the rise in populism and the seemingly popular Reform. I think it would be unthinkable to have Farage as our Prime Minister. I don't want a small state, private NHS, racist far right populist, Trumpist in charge of the country.

I know MN is generally fairly anti Reform, Brexit etc, but where are all these Reform voters. I don't know anyone personally who has admitted they would vote for them? Is it the all the disenfranchised young men?

Where is the poll you are referring to?

Important to start with reviewing the poll itself.

Which poll? I know there is one which put Reform at 33%, but its methodology is at odds with other polls and the pollster is a big Reform fan.

But we mustn't be complacent.

Under FPTP they could ( and will) get a majority with 20% of the votes.
That's why we need to switch to PR now.

I think (and will) is a bit strong.

Also on just 20%? How are you splitting the other 80% in this scenario?

We had a referendum on AV and voted no.
You can't just change the voting system to stop a result you don't like.
We are a long way from a general election, how people vote in council elections or by-elections can be different from general elections (they protest vote and know it won't change the ruling party).
Maybe the other parties need to step up and explain why Reform's policies are wrong and their policies are better.

The reason you don’t know anyone who’ll admit to voting Reform is presumably down to what you think and say about them.

You might find this piece today in the Times interesting:

Voters are sick of lectures from the lanyard class

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e20cdcf4-5339-4d11-a746-3a1a9a0f11cb?shareToken=fafff15640a1853f29e71c59a43a5524

Even if that were true, it very much depends on the distribution of voters, as we saw in the GE. Reform might win more seats under PR than FPTP

I presume you mean this one, a BMG poll for The I. (It’s behind a paywall.)

And yes, we need PR.

Thanks. That is a different poll to the one I was thinking of. It is really worrying.

Yes, this is the poll.

You would think if Starmer v Farage in the next election. If Starmer did the right thing and went in on a ticket against Brexit and with a move to rejoining, at least some of the Brexit madness, he would do better than he is at the moment. Surely it would be the answer if he were to be against Farage?

I'm not surprised the AV Referendum was lost. I'm only surprised the Libdems agreed to it as opposed to PR by single Transferable vote. PR is a necessary condition of modern democracy. But not a sufficient one - it is not a magic bullet. It is fair though - 20% of the = 20% of the seats near as possible.

I meant to say 20% of the electorate so if 60% vote, they would get 33% of the vote.

I’m not the person who wrote this, but I guess what the person is referring to is that a very large % of people simply don’t vote. So say 50% don’t vote, then suddenly 20% of the adult population with the right to vote voting reform will equate to 40% of the votes cast, and there will be no catching them.

It’s like you often hear what a very low % Keir Starmer got - scarcely 20% of the popular vote.

PR is more likely to give coalitions, which I perceive (but don't have the stats) to be less stable than majority rule governments.
It also gives minor parties potentially more 'power' than they merit.
We had all this with the Lib Dems 'go back and prepare for government' etc.

Pretty much everyone in my street voted reform.
I did as there are no SDP candidates in my area ( they are my preferred party) and I did it as a protest to Labour. The Tory candidate looked about 12 and didn’t live locally.

I'm not saying any party is above / better / worse than the other but proportional representation is a fairer way of doing it . Whichever party does it , then they are the favourite and rightly deserve to win .

In the local elections or GE?

I'm in Ireland. As far as I know we haven't elected a single party government since the late 1970s. Most of our coalitions tend towards boring centrism and are not - 2008 excepted - characterised by instability. Proponents of FPTP say it leads to strong government. Too often it leads to charlatans like Johnson being given God like powers when most people voted against him. If he had had to assemble a coalition he wouldn't have made such a pig's ear out of Brexit , perhaps.

I know quite a few reform voters. I have family who live in the midlands and both them and many of their friends admit to being so with no shame. They are pensioners or nearly there and think Farage will bring the UK back to the good times. I’m very concerned about the next GE as I think if things stay as they are he’ll be in.

Oh yes, you are correct that a strong majority can be secured with a low percentage of all eligible (rather than cast) votes.

We need to stop equating reform voters=bad. It's getting old.

FPTP encourages broad parties. Everyone wrongly assumes we'd have exactly the same parties under PR. We wouldn't! They'd fragment in to other parties. So you may end up with something like this:

5% Monster Raving Loony
5% BNP
5% Revolutionary Workers Corbynite Party
7% Gaza Freedom Party
10% Libdem
13% Labour
15% Green
15% Tory
25% Reform

How is that going to lead to any form of stable, desireable government?

There are multiple viable potential coalitions in there that would result in a government that reflects a broader base of voters than our current system does.