What will happen between the US and Canada?

[SpidersAreShitheads]

I’m in the U.K. but have been following events in the US with mounting disbelief at Trump’s behaviour.

I see today Trump has increased the tariffs on Canada to 50% and is threatening to stick tariffs on car imports from Canada that will “shut down” their industry. Trump has also reiterated the fact that Canada WILL become part of the US.

Canada has reacted strongly so far and has again today said that there will be a response to the latest tariff announcements.

I have to be honest, much as I understood the U.K. attempt to flatter Trump to try and ease global tensions, there’s a large part of me that’s cheering on Canada’s refusal to back down.

What do people think is likely to happen? Can Canada sustain their “fuck you” response to Trump or will they eventually have to back down? Is there any genuine chance that the US will be able to annexe Canada?

I’d appreciate hearing people’s thoughts as this is all fascinating, albeit awful.

Yes lots of comments about how his 'bone spurs' are! He has also mocked veterans a fair amount, so I think if he was going to invade Canada he'd have to rely on the same MAGA idiots he got to try and overthrow the government last time. I wonder how well they would do faced with the Canadian (and I'm presuming NATO) armies?

What actually happens if one Nato member launches an attack on another Nato member? I can't believe I'm actually typing that.

Well... war. It's seen as an attack against everyone else, that's the whole point.

I don't think Trump will be that stupid, because wars cost money.

It’s never happened so no protocol but if one NATO member were to attack another, the attack would likely be considered an attack on all, and the attacking member would be seen as the aggressor, subject to potential sanctions or military response from other NATO nations.

Yes, I agree with this. He even said the Zelensky spat was 'great TV'. He doesn't care what he says because it's just for effect, and will be yesterday's news soon... but that's not how global politics works.

Meanwhile the people he's put into positions of power are getting on with the real reason Trump has been allowed to get where he is... Project 2025.

I don't think Trump would dare tell the US armed forces to invade Canada, because the likely outcome would be the end of him and anyone associated with him (Vance, Don Jnr etc). But what he is doing is destabilising everyone, thinking they will just fold and agree to do what he wants. As if Canada is going to just say ' OK well just give up being an independent country just because you've put 50% tariffs on goods Americans will either have to pay, or be short of!'

It’s more complicated than that because to protect one nato member you would have to attack another nato member and there is no precedent and seemingly little protocol for that situation.

Weird times.

@Abra1t Yes... very complicated. But ultimately it was set up so that no-one would attack each other, because the consequence would be everyone attacking back.

Obviously in reality there would initially be a democratic response, and sanctions, and everyone would try to avoid war as much as possible. But the whole point of NATO is that an attack on one is an attack on all. And Trump clearly doesn't care about democracy or sanctions.

The absolute insanity of it all is the fact that he;s only been in power for two months!

What I appreciated the most about Biden was the quietness. I didn't have to worry every day about what was going to happen in the world.

Literally it gets to about 4pm and then i have to avoid the news, basically because Trump has woken up, so what madness has he got planned for the day

DH went to the football last night and I pointed out to him that the whole 50% tariff stand off had happened while he was gone.

Canada is in a completely different situation to UK. Our government had to use diplomacy because peace in Europe affects us hugely.
Tarriffs are not the same thing although obviously still part of president fart’s bully tactics.
I agree and also love anyone who stands up to bullies but of course KS had to take the line he did, whilst still supporting Ukraine and President Zelensky, in the interest of Ukraine, Europe and us.
I pity King Charles having to invite fart to Balmoral. Imagine having to put up with his rudeness in your own home?!
I still remember when he pushed in front of the late Queen. It was such a clear display of his ignorance.
If I was Charles I would want Balmoral fumigated and exorcised as soon as the presidential helicopter lifts off.
I am sure King Charles and KS would both love nothing more than to tell the orange psycho to fuck off.
I hope Canada continues with a strong line. Feeling is running very high there from what I read in the news.
Perhaps crashing the US economy will shake the maga mob’s adoration of he who has been tangoed but probably not as there is none so blind as those who don’t want to see.

Mark Carney is supremely intelligent, calm and unflappable. I suspect Canada will be just fine. The US, on the other hand …..

@sleepwouldbenice as a dual Canadian and British citizen. When heading to Seattle from Vancouver saw the peace arch and thought I cant imagine the usa and Canada be at war again. But I also got why my Canadian nan worm her Canadian flag badge around London so noone thought she was American haha. We are not the same country.

There is no precedent, but NATO is predicated on mutual defence, so what would likely happen is Canada, as the victim of aggression, would invoke Article 5, and Trump would therefore be pitching the US into a war with the entirety of NATO.

Automotive tarriffs between the US and Canada would be spectacularly self defeating as most of the cars (trucks...) built are exported to the US, and the two biggest Canadian car plants are owned by Ford and GM, which in case he hadn't noticed, are US companies 😂

So Trump is bitterly complaining about the US spending so much of their GDP on the military... but apparently he also wants to increase their military spending with pointless vanity projects and extreme willy-waving by posturing to potentially attack a safe, peaceful, developed western democracy like Canada?!

I can't remember who made the dig about other NATO countries wanting to spend money on health rather than defence. Just imagine, eh, the horrors of a Tony Benn-like world where we all spend our money on helping people rather than killing them.

Just further to the NATO question -

I'd imagine that in Trump's tiny, deranged mind, he looks at the map and believes there is no way that NATO, minus the US, could pose any serious threat to the US militarily, and therefore it's entirely without consequence if he sabre-rattles and threatens a nearby neighbour which also happens to be a NATO member with annexation.

This is a little bit delusional, because while NATO is almost entirely reliant on US logistical capability to do much of anything anywhere in the world, and mounting any sort of credible defence of Canadian territory would be next to impossible, Article 5 being invoked with the US as the named aggressor would not come without catastrophic consequences for the US itself.

First of all, all US assets in NATO territories would be frozen, trade would cease, US citizens in NATO territories could be interred, the US has a military presence in many NATO member states, and these sites could, theoretically, become active combat zones, overrun, liquidated, and the personnel taken as POW's. All US Commercial aviation could be denied transit through NATO airspace, and both US Commercial shipping and the US Navy would be denied port across a good part of the world, and become a legitimate target for NATO navies. There is also the pertinent fact that should the situation disintegrate entirely, there are non-US NATO members with their own independent nuclear strike capability, and while this is currently underpinned by US technical support and intel, they are, in theory, just as capable of targeting the Continental USA as they are Russia and China.

If he thinks there would be little to no consequence for the US if it did mount a military invasion of Canada, then he's an even bigger moron that previously thought.

I was in a touristy city recently and noticed a small group of people with Canadian baseball caps. I hadn't twigged then but probably wanting to show that they weren't American.

no tourism allowed until the lunatic is removed

This is horrific.

German tourists’ ordeal reportedly ending as they are returned from US detention | Germany | The Guardian

He sees the world as 3 empires , China , Russia and his own (North America).

Good summary. I can’t believe this is even something we are talking about.

British tourist detained by US authorities for 10 days over visa issue | UK news | The Guardian

Wish I didn’t live so close to the US border!

It is utterly ridiculous and beyond belief, but then the US has become utterly ridiculous and beyond belief.

It's rather silly talk about invading Canada. Trump likes to troll and bully others and talk absolute bollocks. The press shouldn't give it any air time