Trump has said we are on the brink of WW3, aibu to agree with him?

[Whitenoise1]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/iran-attack-israel-trump-biden-b2622151.html

What he's proposed sounds sensible to be honest. He doesn't want to just leave NATO, but for the US to continue to provide nuclear cover for Europe from it's strategic bases here, but pull back on providing other US military interventions in Europe unless a country really needs it. Lots of countries, ours included, have relied on the US to the detriment of our own defence spending, now there are issues with recruiting and financial challenges including in the US, countries should pull their weight.

Other countries wouldn't need to get involved for another WW to break out - despotic sociopathic leaders (yes, men I'm looking at you) look at what's happening and decide they'll hop on the bandwagon and wage their own wars to satisfy their own power trip. Stranger things have happened.

the link between Iran and Russia for example is extremely worrying ....

I don't like the orange man, I think he usually spouts utter rubbish, but he may be onto something here.
I live in Cyprus so alot closer to all the hot posts than most of you do..and for the most past ,life goes on as usual. Since july we have had two US destroyers, one amphibious assault ship and one aircraft carrier al dock on their way to the hotspots. British troops are also being funneled through our bases here, as are refugees fleeing Lebanon.
Our airports are rammed, our Google maps and Waze have been scrambled, and we often find that instead of downtown Limassol we are being told we are approaching Beirut airport (thanks to US/UK scrambling the signals)
Last night had us a little worried though when the sky was lit up with what appeared to be rockets overhead. So far no news on where they came from,.and they didnt land on Cyprus, so that's good

It's not just about people back in the US though, although I know lots believe the narrative that Jews control everything for their own gain hyperbole. It's wild how many people don't understand why Israel not being wiped from the map is beneficial to us and the US.

Its not the US's nuclear capability that is actually needed to protect smaller NATO nations in Europe, its the ability to comprehensively defeat any conventional act of aggression to the point whereby it would be pointless for Putin to even attempt it.

Most of NATO's conventional capability is the US military and its ability to rapidly deploy large forces. If that's removed, then a conventional conquest of the Baltics and/or Finland becomes a lot more feasible, because as much as NATO articles suggest otherwise, the US, UK, or France is not about to go nuking Moscow because Russian tanks are rolling through Riga due to the fact the Latvian military was unable to stand them up at the border.

The problem is that his stands “against intervention” abroad are usually in the form of arguments against maintaining the security commitments we already have — eg to NATO. These commitments have deterred great powers from making war against each other for many decades, but they only work if they are clear-cut and unambiguous. Ambiguities leave room for mistakes. We don’t want Putin wondering if we’re really serious about going to war to defend Estonia, Poland etc.

The USA has two business sales propositions and business models

1. war - military and weaponry
2. pharmaceuticals

it will do whatever it takes to ensure that it’s profit margins are secure. This is why it meddles so insidiously in the Middle East and south and Latin America. It wants war but not all out war (because that’s bad for business). Why will freak out the US at the moment is that it is potentially running out of their control.

And yes we are involved already and yes it leaves us open to increased levels of domestic terrorism, an economic downturn worse than we could
imagine and political unrest/insecurity and a decrease in foreign good relations in Europe.

i think anyone who doesn’t realise this is not thinking logically or indeed laterally about the situation. One has to critically it.

I do think we are on the cusp, but the US may be good enough at their chosen job to bring us back from it.

The US is the biggest threat to world peace. Let’s hope they do something about it.

Well, to be honest, as a US citizen, I am getting a bit tired of my country carrying such a large financial cost for NATO and the UN. I am also tired of our countrymen being sent out to "protect and die" because we can deploy a larger force.

I guess I am jaded. A horrible hurricane and storm has decimated a part of our country. People are dead, missing, cities without power, roads closed, so help cannot get through quickly. And yet, I am not exactly hearing anything on the news about other countries rushing to help us. Yep, I AM jaded.

I could see China and/or Russia being opportunistic here if it suited them. We’ve already got war in Europe (Ukraine) it could all spread and get tangled up together like in WWII. Started with Hitler then we had Mussolini and the Japanese piling in as well. World war before you know it.

I agree.

Terrorism/suicide bombers surely?

From NATO's own website showing that this is an overly simplistic view.

"The volume of US defence expenditure represents approximately two thirds of the defence spending of the Alliance as a whole. However, this is not the amount that the United States contributes to the operational running of NATO, which is shared with all Allies according to the principle of common funding. Moreover, US defence spending also covers commitments outside the Euro-Atlantic area."

We are the closest we've ever been to world war 3 but it is still extremely unlikely to happen. No world leader is mad enough to want that. Nobody will come out on top. We'd all destroy each other. I'm not saying that to scaremonger. I'm saying it to show why it's not going to happen. You can't be a power mad lunatic if you have been obliterated.

why is Trump so crazy here? The US supplies weapons to Israel.

Well i don’t think he’s far wrong to be honest. It certainly could escalate, let’s hope not

I think there will be a full on war in Middle East.
I think this will make us very vulnerable to terrorist and sabotage attacks.
Plus, we can brace for fuel price rises and even shortage in supply.
I do not think we will get further involved in it. At least, if we do have any common sense.

He might be right, but his reasonng may be wrong.

According to this https://geneva-academy.ch/galleries/today-s-armed-conflicts there are currently 110 armed conflicts around the world. I think the difference is, at the moment they are more individual rather than the two coalitions as existed during WW2, but there is risk that different factions may begin to cooperate with seemingly (to them) a common objective.

And you are absolutely right there.
UK has a large amount of problems too.
I would rather do not send any soldiers to die for a cause that almost nobody fully understands. I think, not even the guys driving it, to be honest.
I am a bit worried that the powers that rule us would see the chance to grab a share in crude oil/ minerals and end up sending troops and repeating history. They really do not care that much how many soldiers or civilians die. There is always this lot obsessed with money!

But I am hoping that common sense will prevail and we stay clear of it.

We are....because the USA can't keep their nose out of other countries business and then the UK will get roped into it.
It's time we stop.interfering and just let them crack on with it ...the middle eastern countries are always going to be fighting each other. It's not our problem.

@ayvasili

, our Google maps and Waze have been scrambled, and we often find that instead of downtown Limassol we are being told we are approaching Beirut airport (thanks to US/UK scrambling the signals)

For info whilst the scale of jamming might have increased it’s certainly not new in your part of the world and I wouldn’t assume it’s the US/UK doing it.

The Russians and their allies have been very keen on jamming GPS over/around the eastern Med ever since they got involved in the conflict in Syria…it’s been causing minor problems for civil aviation over that part of the world for at least a decade.

How about a war on women in Afghanistan. FFS he made a deal with the Taliban.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and Trump is right here.

Israel-Hamas is and has always been a proxy war between US and Iran. Basically, US uses Israel as its tool to do its work in the Middle East of keeping nuclear-armed Islamist theocracies at bay (whether you think this is good work or dirty work is dependent on your political flavour and is irrelevant here: it just is a fact).

With US announcing it will commit troops to support Israel, that proxy war now is close to an actual war.

To PPs scoffing at OP - check your privilege. In fact, we all should. We in Western Europe have enjoyed a long uninterrupted period of peace, safety and wealth since the end of WW2. If we look at the sweep of history, we will see that this is an anomaly, and not our birthright. We have the luxury of taking peace for granted, but that doesn't mean we will always have it, and only the ignorant or arrogant would think otherwise.

Well the phrase makes me tense because what does that actually mean

We are at a terrible time for volatility I agree but it could be contained to ME even if other countries are involved