Are there any 'Portillo moments' to look forward to?

[missmousemouth]

Listening to 'The Rest is Politics', they predicted that Jacob Rees-Mogg was a possible Portillo moment in July. God I'd love that. Those of you who crunch numbers, are there any others?

Gove's seat is particularly vulnerable - less than 1% in it with the Lib Dems according to current polling. The Best for Britain MRP polling from a few months ago (before the local elections) showed there were no truly safe seats for the Tories at that point, so there may be quite a few Portillo moments.

I think Mordaunt might be vulnerable down in Hampshire?

Give is being mentioned as one, but I think that would be a surprise. Surrey Heath seems very Conservative - Gove had twice as many seats as Lib Dems last time.

What about Jeremy Hunt t?

Yes, looks like it: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=PO6+1UN

I’ll be staying up to see Rees-Mogg ousted.

Sunak is another possible.

Looking at the election calculus website there could potentially be quite a few:

Rees-Mogg
Grant Shapps
Gillian Keegan
Penny Mordaunt
Claire Coutinho
Tobias Elwood
Mark Harper

I've just come across that website too, but haven't yet got my head around it.

The one I've heard mentioned, I think on Electoral Disfunction, was Alex Chalk. Apparently his majority was only in the hundreds.

I would bloody love for smug Mogg to get ousted. And anyone else closely associated with Bozo.

There was an article online earlier this week listing several MPs, some because of boundary changes (eg Jeremy Hunt). John Redwood was on the list and has apparently already announced that he's not standing. Will try to find the article.

It's The Telegraph so behind a paywall. Although sometimes opening the link and quickly clicking Airplane Mode keeps the text visible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/jeremy-hunt-cabinet-mps-lose-seats-general-election-tories/

According to the article, 11 Cabinet Ministers are at risk, plus Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood (who isn't going to stand).

Cabinet ministers:

Jeremy Hunt - Godalming & Ash
Penny Mordaunt - Portsmouth North
Grant Shapps - Welwyn Hatfield
Victoria Prentis - Banbury
Gillian Keegan - Chichester
Alex Chalk - Cheltenham
Simon Hart - Caerfyrddin
David TC Davies - Monmouthshire
Johnny Mercer - Plymouth Moor View
Lucy Frazer - Ely & East Cambridgeshire
Alister Jack - Dumfries & Galloway

Members of Parliament:

Iain Duncan Smith - Chingford & Wood Green
Sir John Redwood - Wokingham

I didn't realise Redwood was still an MP 🤷‍♀️

Hoping for a Leadsom one in South Northants. That may be a bit of a stretch but given boundary changes you never know.

I'd stay up if this was likely in my constituency. He's such a smug camera loving twat.

I assume Sunak is safe, but actually he might be better off losing his seat, rather than having to do the embarrassing calculus of how long he reasonably has to stay in Parliament and doing constituency surgeries before standing down and buggering off to join the wife and kids in Santa Monica.

I'm staying up. Can't miss that if it happens. Nanny might produce a handkerchief to wipe his tears.

Maybe Sunak can set up a nice bit of political theatre for the Tories where his is the first by-election of the next Parliament and the Tories win it with an increased majority as disgruntled Tories switch back to them. Then he packs his possessions into a handkerchief on a stick a la Dick Whittington (or the cat) and it's hi ho for California.

Alas - Gove out.

Gove not standing, Leasdom not standing, Redwood not standing. Just three candidates who are "frit" of a Portillo moment it seems.

However, on a positive note - good riddance to all three.

I bet most potential Portillos will stand down, they aren't so keen on poor odds.

Mordaunt's apparently getting money chucked at her by her lunatic supporters who think she's the next messiah Tory leader. Dafties, the lot of them.

I almost hope she wins to see the real, actual annihilation of the Conservative Party happen this side of the next decade.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/24/tory-donors-pour-cash-seats-big-names-risk-losing-gove-mordaunt

How will pouring cash into these seats help? Are they planning to pay people to vote for the likes of Mordaunt and Fox?

Pouring cash in will help to provide literature, and also pay for it to be delivered, since it's thought that the number of Tory activists are a bit thin on the ground.
Media campaigns generally will help.

Rishi's PR team must really hate him ... the Titanic museum today? Who thought that was a good idea - especially with the Tory rats MPs leaving the sinking ship

Hopefully hateful Gullis will get his arse handed to him on a plate.

And yesterday's "Things Can Only Get Wetter" debacle 😂

For all of you staying up to watch, if you fancy some easy money contact your local council and apply to do the count.

It's great fun and the panicking people/politician watching when you're inbetween ballot boxes is hilarious 😆 .