Are there any 'Portillo moments' to look forward to?

[missmousemouth]

Listening to 'The Rest is Politics', they predicted that Jacob Rees-Mogg was a possible Portillo moment in July. God I'd love that. Those of you who crunch numbers, are there any others?

I just can't choose..

Loads of people haven’t made their mind up on who they are going to vote for, lots of people are planning to spoil their ballot paper, many say they can’t vote Labour because of the “transgender issue” quite a number are thinking about dipping their toes into reform and there may be a low turnout. There may be no Portillo moments, it’s far from a done deal.

I am sure that it's not a done deal, but I don't think the transgender issue is the big issue that Tory voters would like it to be.

Totally agree, I’m mainly worried about a low turnout.

I hope there are LOTS of these moments, but I also hope there's enough of them left for a reasonable opposition. It's better for the country in the medium to long term. I don't think we'd be quite as fucked as we we now, if Corbyn hadn't been leader of Labour, for example. I also think it would be better if the Tories could see the benefit of moving to the centre not pandering to the extremists.

Sorry, not really the point of the thread but my current musings. Anyway...

I'm in Runnymede and Weybridge. Used to be Philip Hammond's seat and now we have a bang average replacement who really only bothers with topics that affect the die hard blue brigade. Last time he got 54%, LDs 23% and Lab 17%, but one of the tactical voting websites based on polling reckon Lab are in with a chance. I REALLY can't see it happening, but it's making me think twice about whom to vote for...

looks to be a close run thing. Electoral Calculus currently predictsTories with 33.4%; Lib Dem 39.9%; Lab 20.3%. In context no seat in England last time round was won with less than 35% of the vote. Highlights the risk of the progressive vote being split and Tories hanging on in seats like this.

SurreyMumofOne - who if anyone has been sending literature through the door, or even better been out canvassing? That is a clue to whether the parties think the seat is winnable. I don't think there has been any formal agreement, but I think there are informal agreements on the ground. I am in a LibDem seat. Labour and Tories have put through one leaflet each, and I have seen no Labour or Tory signs up. Lib Dems have sent 3 leaflets round plus loads of stakeboards up. They intend to hang on to the seat.

Also have a look at this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/03/what-constituency-am-i-in-map-uk-general-election-2024-boundary-changes-votes-postcode

Additionally have a look at how many seats are held by the parties in Local Government. I recall that Surrey used to be absolutely true blue, but I think now has a lot of Lib Dem councillors. I don't know how many Labour has.

I suspect it's a seat that the Lib Dems are targetting, but I wouldn't know.

So many potential Portillos have decided not to run. Can't think why...

I have booked the next day off work so I can stay up. I work for myself so the boss was very accommodating!

Who's campaigning? That's often the best indicator.

@boys3 @Peregrina @verdantverdure We've had leaflets from the Tories and LibDems. Until I saw that website I wouldn't have thought for a millions years Labour would have a hope. I would fully expect it's one they've decided not to target.
Loads of LDs on the local councils.

But I have a real issue with their stance on women's rights, more so than I do with Labour's. And much as I think the sitting MP isn't great, and I really, really, really, really do not want the Tories in, I think he is someone who I would prefer in the Tory ranks than Rees-Mog et al. I really don't know what to do.

(Sorry, I know I'm now massively straying off topic)

It's really difficult for you. It's a pity you don't have a Lord Buckethead or someone similar standing - always useful for a protest vote. I see there are both UKIP and Reform candidates standing. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

Back to general matters - the real upset I think would be if Rishi Sunak lost his seat - which seems unlikely, but I think it would be the first time a serving PM has lost.

He'd probably be very grateful if it happened. Yes, embarrassing, but he could skulk back off to California asap rather than have to sit it out on the back benches for the foreseeable, until a window to step down arises.

Jacob Rees-Mogg losing his seat won't be a true Portillo moment because if the polls are correct he's already toast. What made Portillo's defeat surprising is that everyone thought he was safe, even taking into account the standard swing. On current polling JRM will get about 27% and the Labour candidate 41%. Even at the last election which overall was a big Tory win his majority was OK but only because the remainder of the vote was equally Lab / LD split.

I'm looking to see whether people like Braverman, Badenoch, Sunak or Truss hang on. They all had massive majorities at the last election but even they don't look particularly safe.

I'm fascinated by this.

There are three big beasts I can think of who appear likely to keep their seats just because they each got such a huge vote at the last election: Badenoch, Patel and Braverman. But they're all very much on the right of the party.

I think Patel and Braverman have done their dash. That leaves Badenoch who, if elected, will surely try to absorb the Reform vote over time.

I agree with the pp who has stated the Portillo moment was because no one would have said his seat was under threat at the 1997 election. The scale of Labour's victory then was bigger than anticipated.

Be interesting to see what happens where we are. We're in a marginal seat, High Peak. Both Labour and the Tories have been canvassing and leafletting. Interestingly the Tory incumbent candidate's literature distances him from the Conservative party. He also bangs on a lot about his achievements which, as far as I can see, he may have supported, but has bugger all influence over. His majority in 2019 was 590.

In the time we've lived here we've had Tory, Labour then Tory MPs. The first Tory was voted out in 2017 - perhaps as reaction to Brexit - the referendum result here was 51:49% in favour of Brexit.

My prediction is a Labour victory here.

My Tory candidate has just put out a leaflet, with bold splashes of Red (i.e. pretending to be Labour) but saying, Stop the Lib Dems.

Jesus wept, we don't need the sorting hat to know she's a Slytherin.

That photo just needs a caption 'Mortal enemy of Harry. Daughter of Voldemort is on the move.'

Sorry, I'm getting carried away now.

Ha ha is this the delightful Robert? He's another smug bastard who I should like very much to be ousted. Unsufferable and has never done anything useful that I can see. He just turns up for photo opportunities and toes the party line like a Very Good Boy. Idiot.

www.buxtonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/high-peak-mp-remains-tight-lipped-on-whether-boris-johnson-should-resign-3715653

Patel is rapidly reinventing herself as the closest thing to a One Nation Centrist on offer. She's done her sums and worked out that after the election the centre of the parliamentary party is almost inevitably going to swing back slightly to the left, and that being the designated centrist should guarantee you a place on the membership ballot. Gives credence to the Dead Ringers theory that she was paying Braverman all along to make her look reasonable by comparison.

Of course this does all depend on all the footage of her dancing with Farage being lost.

Ian Duncan Smith was marginal but the Labour candidate was deselected and is now standing as an independent thus splitting the vote so don't know

Portillo did quite well out of his 'moment' probably more so than if he had won the seat

@purser25 People I know in the civil service say a former party leader had to be kept away from young women, relied on his wealthy wife's family to buy him jobs, And then had the cheek to think he could teach other, better, men how to be good husbands.

250 Tory MPs all becoming unemployed at once don't have the same cachet in the market though will they?

Especially the ones whom we couldn't pick out in a line up.

I'm not sure I could cope with 20 odd notable ex Tory mps doing shows about various transport methods on the bbc.

My 3 are

Rees Mogg
Braverman
Jenrick

Sweden 99 I had heard that someone said she felt she was being mentally undressed.