Immunity Case going poof?
(From WaPo)
Thursday’s argument suggests Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. will be in a familiar role — the swing vote in a 5-4 decision.
“The chief justice was very coy during the oral argument,” said Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin. “I think it became pretty apparent pretty quickly to everyone, including his colleagues, that he is the median vote in this case.”
Justice Amy Coney Barrett can also be hard to read. But she elicited what Vladeck referred to as the “most important moment in the whole argument” — when Donald Trump’s attorney, John Sauer, conceded that some of the former president’s actions around Jan. 6 would not count as “official” acts.
But, he said, “Even if this ends up with a 5-to-4 decision allowing the January 6 prosecution to go forward at least in part, it’s pretty remarkable that it would be that close.
And even that decision could come slowly enough, and with enough work left to be done, that it makes it impossible for Trump to go on trial before the election.”
Mike Davis, a former Neil M. Gorsuch clerk and Trump ally, made a similar prediction, saying in a statement the case will probably be sent back to the trial judge, Tanya S. Chutkan.
“The case will not get tried before the election,” he wrote. “This will be a historic win for President Trump — and the presidency and our country.”
That said, a trial before the election is still possible if the court rules quickly and articulates a test for what conduct is and isn’t subject to prosecution that Chutkan is able to follow. “If Chutkan is just following the instructions she got from the Supreme Court,” five justices might not agree to keep the case on hold any longer, Vladeck said.