I think the tories will lose

[ethanrayne]

I actually thought they would win, and there was nothing anyone could do. Now I think they will lose.

I want them to lose so badly op. I hope you're right for all our sakes.

Well yes it is pictish (and my jaw fell open!) but that's kind of my point. This is the stuff that sticks. She's a perfectly intelligent and lovely person but that's the first thing she thinks of when someone mentions Jeremy Corbyn.

It's the Miliband bacon sandwich stuff all over again 'look at this weirdo, not credible, not fit to lead' etc etc

A hung Parliament?

Now that would be interesting.

The Guardian have just shown the Tories with a 3 point lead

Trump, and then Brexit were populist movements. So is Corbyn's set up at the moment. Clinton was the presumed president, May was/is the presumed PM. But it's not politics as we knew it, anymore.

@Straponsally, my economic knowledge is limited but papers have reported a fair few leading economists have said they think some of Corbyn's suggestions for the economy are good solid ideas, particularly the creation of a National Investment bank to boost investment across all areas of the UK and for small businesses.

Someone I know who is doing a PHD in economics shared at the height of the global economic crisis most of the wealthy countries in Europe to get their economics back on track employed exactly what Corbyn is proposing now - essential investment in infrastructure, higher public spending, sound investment in health care and education. They are are majorly out performing us in terms of shrinking their deficit.

Despite Osborne implementing austerity we are being out performed by the peseta other economies who did not take the austerity route. As a nation we are being conned into thinking the budget of a country needs to be run like a household- just tighten up in tough times.

Wages for low to middle income have stagnated which means foreign investment is not as high as it could be even with our extremely low corporate tax. Multi national corporations want to know a country has a healthy, educated population with disposable income. All I can observe is that our economy under Osborne and now Hammond has not grown as much as other European countries and the national debt has doubled since Labour lost in 2010. Only the highest earners have enjoyed an improved standard of living and even higher wages.

The person I know gave these figures on expenditure with comparable economies who are outperforming us despite higher expenditure.

Austerity hasn't worked. I am ready to see Corbyn's fiscal policies successfully adopted in other European countries being tried here in the UK.

CURRENT EXPENDITURE ACROSS COMPARABLE ECONOMIES

Health spend
Germany 11% (8.3% public)

Sweden 11.9%
UK 8.5%(7% public)

Social spend
Germany 25.8%
Sweden 28.1%
UK 21.7%

Unemployment Benefit
Germany 60-67% of claimants previous salary for a year up to £4000 pm
Sweden 70-80% of claimants previous salary for 14 months up to £6100 pm
UK £282 pm regardless of previous salary

Higher Education
Germany -Free university education
Sweden - Free university education
UK £9,000 per year

Public Spend on research
Germany 2.88%
Sweden 3.28
UK- 1.63%

Employment protection legislation
Germany 2.68
Sweden 2.61
UK 1.10 (lowest job security in the EU 15 countries)

Nationalisation
Germany 80% nationalised Railway cheeper and more efficient
UK - 90% Privatised- comparatively very expensive and inefficent

GDP per capita
Germany 46,900 USD
Sweden 46,900 USD
UK 41,200 Mil USD

Financial Balances
Germany +.2%
Sweden 0.8%
UK -4.1%
US -4.6%

Unemployment Rate
Germany 4.5%
Uk 4.9%

Global Competitiveness Ranking
Germany 5th
Sweden 6th
UK 7th

Lets hope so op. Labour for the win!

I want her to just win, with a majority of 3 or 4. So that she is seen to have wasted time and money on a pointless election and throwing away a workable majority unnecessarily. Then she or whoever the Tories replace her with, still have to clear up the mess they caused.

As a lifelong Labour Party member and activist when I can, of course I’d love to see a Labour government, but I don’t think it’s going to happen this time. I see what’s happening in this campaign, with the new (and growing quickly) Progressive Alliance, as a real chance to start forming a vision of the kind of society we so-called ‘left-wingers’ want to see. Those old descriptions of left- and right-wing are just that, old and out of date. I’m hoping for results good enough for non-Tories to see that we have to work together to formulate and articulate a coherent vision of a society, and an over-arching economic and social policy and principles to build that society with. This is something that would take us up to the following election with a real chance of defeating the Tories, to the extent that they realise that their mean, nasty, impoverishing neolib view of the world is dead and gone, and never coming back.

Four times Europe has been through austerity, with the same results every time which include two world wars and many millions dead; we have to collectively say ‘Never again’ and consign neoliberalism to the dustbin of history.

This realisation is growing all across Europe too, it’s not just in UK, so I’m hopeful. I’m 70 now but the women in my family are very long-lived, seven out of the eight women in the previous two generations of my family have lived to 100+, healthy and sharp of mind, so I’m optimistic I’ll live to see it.

Times/YouGov regular weekly poll shows Tory lead down to 3 points:

I'm a 'shy conservative'. Most people I know are. My fb feed has been pretty empty of election stuff - apart from a small number of labour people who post really aggressive stuff. I don't enter into debates about politics on mn 'cause I don't really like being attacked in a way I would never attack labour supporters. What some people don't realise is that some of us vote Tory because we think it would be better for the whole country. I think lots of JCs ideas are lovely- yay!!! Give people stuff!!! But I think if we implemented them we'd bankrupt the country and be in a much worse position than we are now - and able to afford less NHS / social care. I do think it's right that free school meals are taken away from those who can afford to pay - it's a daft policy! I do think education needs more money. I do want to care for disabled people. I'm not particularly fussed about immigration. I don't agree with a lot of Tory policy, but overall I think they are the better option out of two (sorry lib dems) rather dismal options. I can't see Corbyn, Abbott, thornberry etc running the country successfully. And in my line of work I have met lots of entitled people who really don't fancy the idea of working. Does that make me selfish? Basically I want a new center ground liberal non-socialist party!

I wouldnt be mad if we had a lab/lib/snp coalition as long as iyt included Lucas, Id like Wood in there but I dont think shes running for a westminster seat if im wrong on that feel free to correct me

Would love to see a Labour victory but don't think it will happen this time sadly. Unsure the Conservatives will get a majority though.

I called the result of the last election and the ref correctly

My money is still on the tories this time, im afraid.

It's the baby boomers (not all of them obvs) - they are determined to send this country to the dogs.

I do think education needs more money. I do want to care for disabled people.

Do you expect the Tories to deliver? I went on a demo about cuts in education back in 1992 after Major's surprise win. Someone was holding up a placard saying "This isn't what we voted for." To which I could only think that if they voted Tory, that was exactly what they voted for.

Sittin - just picking up on one of the points you made (more investment in education), how do you reconcile your vote with this, from the IFS:

Taking account of forecast growth in pupil [numbers], this equates to a real-terms cut in spending per pupil of 2.8% between 2017–18 and 2021–22. Adding this to past cuts makes for a total real-terms cut to per-pupil spending of around 7% over the six years between 2015–16 and 2021–22

@sittinonthefloor, I appreciate some voters are fearful Corbyn will trash the economy. My post above discusses corbyn's fiscal policies have worked for other economies such as Germany since the global crash. Austerity has not worked.

Peregrina - if you read my whole post you'll see that I don't agree with all the tories policies - but I don't agree with JC either! It's not just about schools / NHS.

Lass genuine observation - I can't understand how anyone can be committed enough to be a member of a political party yet decide to vote for a different party with such wildly opposing principles? Aren't you voting for party policies, not the party leader?

Well first of all I don't support policies like re-nationalisation. Secondly if Labour wins he will be PM.I do not think he is fit to be PM and McConnell and Abbott are not fit to be Chancellor or Home Secretary either. Compare them to Brown or Darling or Johnstone- it is 50% laughable and 50% terrifying.

Thirdly I am also a Unionist. Always have been. I voted no in both devolution referenda and the independence referendum. Corbyn as PM would not work to keep the Union.

I have been a not particularly active member on and off. Membership had lapsed and I rejoined to vote against Corbyn.

I wish we could get shot of the fave football team mentality of voting 'Oooh supported Tory all me life, and always will!' and believing all the misrepresentation of Corbyn.... I will hope n pray Corbyn gets in...

I'm not happy with ANY of our voting choices. But I don't think JC, Abbott etc are competent - his own MPs don't support him! I was anticipating voting lib dem this time but they haven't really nailed it either. It's all v depressing.

I do want to care for disabled people

Really?

Really?

Because I can't square that with voting conservative.

Do you know, seven years ago a lot more disabled people and children had a secure income, support, access to the NHS.

In the last seven years, due to Tory cuts, restructuring, changing allowances and entitlements to the point where no one knows who can get what any more:

A) How many people have died (yes the fucking bolding function is overused, but it's warranted there)

B) How many are shitting themselves waiting for the brown envelope of doom every month - will this be the month I need to go to a food bank?

C) Just how much fucking money has been wasted on tribunals (overturning wrong decisions - which is the majority of them)

It was a fucking insult to see amber Rudd say how much more they have paid in disability benefits.

She forgot to say where that money was going.

To the expensive tribunals needed because the torys decided a medical professionals opinion wasn't good enough.

No, instead they pay millions to private companies to 'vet' disabled people and get bonuses if they cut the number down, whether or not they are due to die in a few weeks or can't work without their mobility car.

So no, I don't believe anyone who can bloody read can vote conservative and say they want to help the disabled. It's bollocks.

I also think JC will lead to us waving goodbye bye to Scotland, selfishly I think we are better off together! Also I'm still p**d off at corbyn for not supporting Remain with any effort - he easily could have made the difference if he'd wanted to.

'Trickle down' austerity economics are a disaster. They've proved it.

Food banks, NHS on its knees, anyone noticed all the homeless reappearing in our streets, cuts in education.

Poor Britain.

I wouldnt be mad if we had a lab/lib/snp coalition

And how do you imagine that would work? The only point of the SNP is to break up the UK. The Lib Dems is unionist party and is campaigning hard in Scotland on that basis- as was Kezia Dugdale for Scottish Labour until Corbyn undermined her.