Trump (Part 4)

[claig]

Continuing discussion of the Trumpquake and populist rebellions

It will also hurt the US working classes, as everything they buy will be 45% more expensive, but their wages will continue to stagnate.

Or more, as they'll have to buy goods produced with American salaries.
They will no longer be able to afford all the clothes or electronic goods.

Or alternatively:

"people think that fascism arrives in fancy dress
worn by grotesques and monsters
as played out in endless re-runs of the Nazis.

Fascism arrives as your friend.
It will restore your honour,
make you feel proud,
protect your house,
give you a job,
clean up the neighbourhood,
remind you of how great you once were,
clear out the venal and the corrupt,
remove anything you feel is unlike you...

It doesn't walk in saying,
"Our programme means militias, mass imprisonments, transportations, war and persecution.""

Or they'll have to get loads of cheap immigrants.

It seems a well thought out plan.

It all adds up for someone, but not for American workers.

Great quote Kaija!

And I agree, it works out for those who own the factories, 0 tax and they can sell everything they currently make at a 45% mark up to match everyone else's price rises.

'There's no way that US companies can match Chinese companies when it comes to the price of their products.'

They can if there is a 45% trade tariff on Chinse goods and there is a trade war with boycotts etc. The Chinese won't want to "go there" and will make a business deal with businessman Trump.

'85% of manufacturing job loss has been due to automation, not offshoring.'

That's the spin our teams put out. Ford and Carrier were moving factories to Mexico to employ people on $3 an hour instead of the US rate. They weren't using robots. And the Apple factories in China are using Chinese people, not robots.

'So even if every factory came back from China they wouldn't hire the same no. of US employees, they would automate.'

No because they are not automated in China or Germany. Technology will evolve in the future but so will society and that is a problem for the future. For now Trump intends to put "America First" and he will do it by as he said "being the greatest job creator in US history" and he didn't mean for robots, because robots can't vote, although it does make you wonder when you look at Blair someties.

I'll refer you to the now extinct benevolent right wing regimes of Chile and Argentina, even Brazil. All for the good of the people. To save them from communism.
The other side in Cuba and Venezuela.

That's what the extremes and populism do.

I can see Trump running 2 or more hour long rants on TV like Chávez did.

'I can see Trump running 2 or more hour long rants on TV like Chávez did.'

Let's hope so. A Trump rally and the rollicking laughs are great fun.

Have you realised, claig, that Trump's plan means American workers will be producing goods they won't be able to afford?

Let's hope so. A Trump rally and the rollicking laughs are great fun.

You really have no idea, do you?

"They can if there is a 45% trade tariff on Chinse goods and there is a trade war with boycotts etc. The Chinese won't want to "go there" and will make a business deal with businessman Trump."

If there is a 45% trade tariff, all goods will be 45% more expensive as that is how high tarrifs will have to be to get American goods competitive with Chinese goods. That's not good for the working class.

"That's the spin our teams put out. Ford and Carrier were moving factories to Mexico to employ people on $3 an hour instead of the US rate. They weren't using robots. And the Apple factories in China are using Chinese people, not robots."

And if they can't employ people at $3/hr thereby avoiding massive capital expenditure, they'll bit the bullet and automate. 85% of manufacturing jobs have been lost due to automation. Manufacturing will never employ the same numbers it used to.

Apple, Carrier, they all have automation. They will all have more automation if they can't move. Carrier is still moving over 1000 jobs to Mexico btw despite all the corporate welfare Trump is handing them.

They aren't automated in China because it's more expensive to automate in the US than it is to hire cheap labour in China. That dynamic is changing, and lots of firms are already coming back to the USA and hiring miniscule work forces (sometimes under 100) and automating the rest, because it's cheaper than hiring people in China.

Are you watching this tonight claig?

"The automation myth
Robots aren't taking your jobs— and that's the problem

Over the past five years, American politics has become obsessed with robots.
...
The good news is that these concerns are wrong. None of the recent problems in the American economy are due to robots — or, to be more specific about it, due to an accelerating pace of automation. Moreover, even if the pace of automation does speed up in the future, there's no real reason to believe that it will be a problem."

www.vox.com/2015/7/27/9038829/automation-myth

The automation myth is the spin of the elites, and their trusted servants, New Labour and the Blairites. It is spun by their teams to fool people into accepting less worker rights and lower wages under the pretence that otherwise they won't get a job at all.

Trump is not a Blairite, he said "I will be the greatest job creator in US history" and he didn't mean for the sake or robots.

Yes, Roussette, I am definitely watching that, I mentioned it either on this thread or the previous one. I like John Pilger because he makes you think.

he said "I will be the greatest job creator in US history"

And that is the Gospel of St. Trump.

Like I said, you'll be so disappointed, claig.

The US looks to become an isolated country. Europe and others will buy from and sell to the emerging economies.
The US will get proudly isolated and a fortress under Trump.
It will feel like 1984, by the likes of it.

It is 10.30 tonight on Channel 4, John Pilger's "The Coming War with China"

I think he has got it wrong. He probably never foresaw the election of Trump or Brexit or the end of the EU or the ending of TTIP by Trump etc.

The elites wanted nuclear war with Russia and wanted Jihadis to take over and destabilise the Middle East, but Trump has now ended both of those plans.

Obama had a strategy of pivoting to Asia to counter China, and obviously Trump needs China to accept to somehow wipe out the huge US deficit that the globalists forced on the United States by their "free trade agreements" signed onto by their puppet politicians like Bill Clinton etc, but Trump is ending all that as well.

Trump will force China to make a deal and help pay down the US debt and I don't think there will be a war over it, because Trump will become friendly with Putin and prevent a Russian-Chinese alliance. We don't yet know what Putin will do and whether he will side with China or stay neutral or go with the West. But I think Trump will win over China by bringing democracy to it if it tries to take America on in a trade war.

So I think Pilger has got it wrong, but it will be interesting to watch what he thinks will happen.

As the article with the Chinese analyst said in the Atlantic

"China has been hurt by Trump, but the Chinese government wants to protect Trump by saying no, he did not place the call, he is just inexperienced, so why do we care?

Friedman: Why do you think the Chinese government wants to protect Trump?

Shen: Because what can you do? Can you really cut off the official relationship with the U.S.? No, you cannot. You [may] hurt yourself more than America. So the Chinese government does not want to hurt China by hurting Trump."

---

There is nothing the Chinese can do but come to a deal with Trump. Trump is not "a career politician", he is not a "puppet", he is not a "servant", he is not a Blair. Trump is in charge, no one pulls his strings and the Chinese know it.

And as Trump always says "I love China. They are great people, smart people. Much smarter than our dummies who sign all these trade deals."

Trump blames the "dummies" and "losers" in our political classes, not the Chinese, and the Chinese will respect Trump because Trump knows how "useless" all the puppets were and they know that he is not a puppet.

The thing is... I think everyone is worried, we have a man due to become the POTUS who is deeply flawed, narcisstic, driven by power, ego and money. There are no reassurances claig that you can give us. He has shown his true colours time and time again, he lies, he changes his mind like the wind, he has no idea about diplomacy, he's Putin's patsy and now he has won he feels invincible and people like you talk about him like he's the second coming. Trump lovers are being sold out already, only trouble is, they don't realise it.

As Llewj says, you are going to be sorely disappointed. DT doesn't get all the fear and stress he has caused because he is driven by an out of control power hungry ego. It's so so easy to blame the MSM, the elites, anyone out to get him, he can't look inwardly and question himself, he is incapable. The only hope is... as he is so so un-selfaware, he can be manipulated through flattery, I think he craves validation and is deeply insecure, he nurses grudges if he feels threatened or disrespected. He probably wants to look after the people - but only if they love Donald Trump.

Let's just hope he doesn't last the 4 years, it's what I prophesied before he won and I'm always right

Trump on China and our "dummies" in our political classes

Exactly Roussette...China are happy because they think they can walk all over Trump.

Also claig that article doesn't say what you think it says.

It just says that automation is actually a good thing for productivity growth. It doesn't say that factories aren't more automated now than in the past. It's saying there ought to be more automation.

One reason there isn't autmoatin is because companies can avoid spending millions on capital investment and relocate to China.

If they can't do that, it will become economic for them to invest in automation, as it will be cheaper than paying US or UK wages.

In high automation fields like car manufacturing it's already the case that factories are still in high wage countries, because they employ far fewer people than in the past.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/manufacturing-jobs-are-never-coming-back/

"Here’s the problem: Whether or not those manufacturing jobs could have been saved, they aren’t coming back, at least not most of them. How do we know? Because in recent years, factories have been coming back, but the jobs haven’t. Because of rising wages in China, the need for shorter supply chains and other factors, a small but growing group of companies are shifting production back to the U.S. But the factories they build here are heavily automated, employing a small fraction of the workers they would have a generation ago."

"Look at the chart below: Since the recession ended in 2009, manufacturing output — the value of all the goods that U.S. factories produce, adjusted for inflation — has risen by more than 20 percent, because of a combination of “reshoring” and increased domestic demand. But manufacturing employment is up just 5 percent. And much of that job growth represents a rebound from the recession, not a sustainable trend. (The Washington Post’s Abha Bhattarai had a great story this week on what the much-touted “manufacturing renaissance” really looks like through the eyes of one Georgia town.)"

'It just says that automation is actually a good thing for productivity growth'

But what these "experts" are missing is that we in teh UK, for instance, are less productive than France, for example, because we have less manufacturing and have more service industries and there is no way to increase productivity by serving cups of coffee faster or making sandwiches faster or running around a warehouse faster.

You need more manufacturing industry to increase productivity.

That is what Trump will do as he returns factories to the US to as he says "provide well-paid jobs for people" instead of just flipping burgers.