When Eurozone collapses, what next? (feels more when than if)

[Hamishbear]

Posted on Chat but felt this may be a better place.

So, the bailouts can't continue indefinitely, what happens next?

What's the best case scenario and how will it affect us in the short term and long term?

meaning, privacy of identity, and from that, your choices as an individual

liberty - freedom

• in our choices, purchasing power, education choices, work choices,

but also, as I mentioned before, in what to believe, as media will still try to push information to the masses, who wont always have a filter to decide what is real or hype/spin

Cameras everywhere, Google, mobile and.email not private...

As much as I would love to, Claig, I am afraid I with MoreBeta and don't share your optimism. I don't see how this rosier/positive Euro scenario is sustainable long term.

My interpretation of the original OP is what will the Macro-economic effect of the Eurozone collapsing (rather than what the underlying political agenda is and the political outcome). I don't know the answer but am interested in what others think it will be.

In my mind the following things are likely to happen if one of the PIIGs leaves the Eurozone (in no particular order!)

• inflation levels get to unmanageable levels due to the amount of cash printed as through easing (in both the UK and the rest of the Eurozone) - this will happen / is happening anyway

• inflation in the UK and Eurozone further weakens currencies

• export business from UK and Eurozone countries improves due to weakened currency

• Import costs increase, due to weak currency, so things such as fuel and food start to feel very expensive

• Euro strengthens to some extent following the exit of a weaker country (to recognise a stronger set of core constituents) this is counteracted by the uncertainty in the market around the future of the Euro

• the country that leaves the Eurozone will go back to their pre-Euro currency and find banks / governments reluctant to lend to them so their cost of borrowing will increase

• that country will either accept they have no way to finance future infrastructure projects necessary to boost the economy and don't invest so recovery takes a long time OR they print more money to invest but see extortionate levels of inflation following this

• in the very long term that country will benefit from outside investment as a result of their weakened currency

• In the longer term the remaining Eurozone countries too will see increased exports which in turn will improve the economy and eventually return the Euro to return to a stronger equilibrium (if they / we can ever recover from the impact of the huge amount of cash injected into the system from quant E)

Any economists out there than can point out the errors on my assumptions or add to the list of future outcomes?!

It will be worth listening to the news next week. It is going to be historic, and it will lift the doom and gloom.

'Eurozone leaders vowed to plough on with the Robin Hood tax plans alone yesterday as they declared that a Brussels summit next week will be a ?defining moment? in EU history.'

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163461/Britain-spared-EU-bank-tax-European-leaders-push-ahead-plans-drop-demands-nations-included.html

Agree that computers are not private and never will be.
Heck,even i know a hacker,and I am sure I could be led to several more.
Its pretty rife imo.

Look at LinkedIn.All 6 and a half million users got hacked,and it didnt matter if you had the safest password in the land!