Mumsnet could do better (la quatrième partie): cheese wars and chickens

[79Helene]

Merailers assemble! The doors are open for part 4!

Thinking of all of you who are in Israel...and those with family and friends there... hoping you all stay safe and that there are better days ahead xx

Thank goodness we have bomb shelters/ safe rooms in our apartments. There were sirens yesterday so my nephew and friends went into their safe room when they heard massive loud booms. After the all clear sounded they left the safe room to discover that their flat had been severe damaged by the impact of a rocket fired from Iran. Without the safe room they would all, without doubt, have been killed.
We have had sirens throughout the day and night with civilian areas, nowhere near so called military or legitimate targets, being directly fired upon. As you can imagine it is beyond stressful.
i hope that all of you who are in a similar position to me keep safe and that we enjoy quieter times ahead

@gingergran and @EllaDisenchanted Sending love to you. We can't do much from here except send donations to Magen David Adom💝

@gingergran terrifying!how are they doing? Just dreadful 🫂

It’s quieter where we are, last few days we have still been getting lots of pre alerts, but somehow our area doesn’t get the siren. we hear the booms and can see the missiles and interceptors overhead because we’re not in shelters.

my husband and sons were praying in the car park of our building yesterday evening (not permitted to go to shul atm) and the interceptors were flying overhead while they were praying. My son took these pics directly overhead (no siren again). Edited by MNHQ

Actually I’ve asked for the pics off. I don’t think it’s at all identifiable but I’m not sure what kind of pics we’re allowed to post

@EllaDisenchanted they are struggling. Luckily they have been able to move into a friend’s flat but this has made things very real. They live in the centre of a city which has been targeted many times over the last few days

And then this morning we are woken up by yet another siren and the news that Soraka hospital has been hit by an Iranian missile. Don’t they realise that this hospital treats all religions within Israel and also Palestinians - or maybe they do and choose to ignore that.

It’s horrendous 😞

we were woken by the pre alert, but then didn’t get the siren. I’m in the weird strip of the country that didn’t get this morning. The booms were extra loud, I think because there were impacts. Interceptions are a bit quieter.
I saw the hospital was hit 😞 thank Gd that floor of the hospital was evacuated yesterday

Shabbat shalom to everybody. Let’s hope for a quiet one for all of us in Israel

Shabbat shalom. I just wanted to let you all know that you're in my thoughts and prayers. Over the Sabbath, I'll post any military news I think would be of interest.

A great many US military assets are converging on the Middle East. Israel is not alone in this struggle.

Amen 🙏 Shabbat shalom 🇮🇱🕍

I just thought I'd add a bit of commentary.

You've likely heard that Trump has announced a two-week time period to make a decision about getting directly involved in the conflict, i.e., attack Fordow with bunker buster bombs. Time works for us in the current situation and against the Iranians.

This is because of what's called a firepower asymmetry. The IAF is attacking Iran at will with gravity bombs, which are much cheaper and more powerful than the missiles Iran is firing at Israel. Israel has effective air defenses with a lot of US air defense assistance. Iran has almost no air defenses left at this point. Every day that goes by allows the IAF to destroy more Iranian missiles and missile launchers.

If and when the USAF attacks Fordow, we'd expect the Iranians to retaliate by firing missiles at the US troops in the Middle East. By waiting as the IAF attrits Iran's ability to retaliate against us, we lower the risk to American forces in the area. Time also allows us to move more ships and aircraft into the area. More here on that:

https://www.twz.com/air/major-u-s-middle-east-focused-buildup-confirmed

Fordow is not going anywhere. I think Trump will decide to attack it, but it's not a certainty. Israel would not have started this campaign without a plan to at least disable Fordow, which they can do by bombing the access tunnels, ventilation shafts, and power supplies. A special forces raid is another option as a last resort. One way or another, it will be dealt with.

We’ve attacked Fordow and two other nuclear sites.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-latest-news

All US aircraft have safely departed Iranian air space.

Damage assessment will take a day or two, and there may be further attacks.

Thanks @MissConductUS

You're most welcome, @EllaDisenchanted.

Well, it's been a busy last 24 hours, innit? 😁

My instincts on Trump attacking Fordow were correct. The raid was bigger than I expected, though. In retrospect, it make sense. If you're going to do it, go big. If your interested in the details, here's a summary of a briefing the Pentagon gave this morning:

https://nypost.com/2025/06/22/us-news/inside-operation-midnight-hammer-us-dropped-14-bunker-buster-bombs-on-irans-fordow-nuke-site-in-biggest-ever-b-2-raid/

The question now is what's next. Iran is making noises about closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is possible, but not a great choice for them. The US gets almost no oil from the ME these days, it would greatly piss off China and hurt Iran economically by stopping their oil exports—sort of an own goal situation. They would also lose what little naval forces they have.

They could fire missiles at US forces in the region, but that carries the risk of getting the US involved in the conflict at a much higher level, which Trump warned them of. I think they've got to be a bit scared of Trump now. And we have a lot of air defenses in place to protect our troops.

Whatever Iran does, be assured that the US has plans and assets in place to deal with it.

In any case, this is all very good news for Israel, and I am very pleased and proud that my country has stood by our Israeli sisters and brothers today.

I hope you lovely ladies are doing well. You are in my prayers, and may Gd protect you all. Please keep the American service men and women in yours.

I haven’t slept much to be honest but that’s party because my 5 year old is anxious and has a bad dream and literally climbed on top of me in the night so I gave up and read the news most of the night.

In any case, this is all very good news for Israel, and I am very pleased and proud that my country has stood by our Israeli sisters and brothers today. i am* *enormously grateful 🙏❤️

I hope you lovely ladies are doing well. You are in my prayers, and may Gd protect you all. Please keep the American service men and women in yours. Thank you, truly. Amen, and yes, they are in our prayers and thoughts ❤️

I thought Trump would ok the bombing of nuclear facilities. He had a once in a generation chance to cut the Islamic Republic’s ability to seriously attack israel and took it. Iran’s leadership is a threat to Israel, the Middle East and Western society.

I do find it intriguing that the general commentary about ‘what next’ doesn’t discuss Russia (too busy with Ukraine?), China (maybe will be involved covertly?) and terrorist cells /assassination attempts in Israel and western countries. @MissConductUS I’d be interested in your view.

I'm glad to chime in, @BeretInParis. Russia has tossed Iran aside like a used tissue for the simple reason that Iran is no longer useful to Russia. Russia is now making its own drones and is buying missiles and artillery ammunition from China, so it doesn't need Iran for that. Iran was once a major regional power in the Middle East, and now can't even defend itself. Russia has its hands full in Ukraine and the last thing they want is a possible military conflict with Israel or the US. And they have never been great friends. The Soviet Union invaded Iran during WWII and that has not been forgotten.

Similarly with China, there is simple no benefit to them to get involved. Iran offers them cheap oil, nothing more. They'd like to keep that if possible, but it's not that big a deal if they don't. A worldwide recession due to an increase in the price of oil would be very damaging to them economically. China is also always a little standoffish with Muslim countries, possibly due to not wanting to attract attention to how they treat their own Uyghur and other Muslim minorities.

I think both countries are hoping the the US raid is the peak of the conflict and that it de escalates from here.

Terrorist cells may be the one way Iran can strike back, but for the Regime, their world is collapsing. They have broken the social contract with their people and revealed themselves to be profoundly weak and vulnerable. That will limit their ability to focus on terrorist reprisals, as will their worry about the reaction. If they cause a mass casualty event in the US, Trump would go after Khamenei and the rest of their government, and they know that. I think that right now, they are just hoping to survive all of this.

That’s so interesting @MissConductUS. I appreciate your speedy insight! I am intrigued whether there’ll be any violent reprisals. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is an own-goal as much as it’d impact the rest of the world.

@BeretInParis, this article goes into more about why Russia won't lift a finger to help Iran, including an aspect I hadn't considered - Ukraine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/russia-watches-on-as-ally-iran-is-pummeled.html

“Iran has massively supported Putin’s war against Ukraine with weapons and technology. On his trip to Moscow, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi may now ask Moscow to return the favour,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a note Monday.

“However, Putin has probably little to offer beyond some words. He needs his weapons himself for his continued aggression against Ukraine,” he noted.

Russia also has to tread a fine line between placating and assisting ally Iran and keeping the U.S. sweet, as it looks to re-establish ties with Donald Trump’s Russia-friendlier administration.

“If Putin were to annoy Trump over Iran in any significant way, Trump may change tack and impose new heavy sanctions on Russia and/or weaken Putin’s position in other ways,” Schmieding said.

The whole article is worth a read, by the way.

I need to offer a correction to something I posted earlier. Russia is now sourcing missiles and artillery shells from North Korea, not China, as far as we know. I think I just had China on my mind as I was getting ready to write about it and Iran.

I find it interesting that there's been no response from Iran yet to the American strikes. It makes me wonder if their options are so unattractive that they can't pick one.

I've just seen this. China has warned Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz or interfere with shipping.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/china-voices-concerns-about-impact-of-conflict-on-shipping-AM8sNtP6dVLd7kQLiOhS

Hi all, I'm a bit late with this. The Iranian missile attack on Qatar, which they warned them of ahead of time, was clearly de-escalatory. That and the fact that all of the missiles were shot down means that I think it's very unlikely that Trump will hit back. It was clearly the minimum they could do other than doing nothing.

I think the IAF will continue to hit targets in Iran, but at a lower operational tempo. The high priority targets have been neutralized at this point.

So the situation seems to be stabilizing, at least as far as Israel and the US are concerned. I expect things inside Iran are quite chaotic and that that will continue for quite a while.

I think you’re right. Interesting about China @MissConductUS. So great to have your insights here. Thank you.

You're certainly welcome, @BeretInParis. I don't get to put on my military thinking hat very often these days, so it's a bit of fun for me. China's economy is not great these days, so they don't want anything that would hurt their exports, like high oil prices or a global economic slowdown.

You have probably heard this already, but Trump has announced a cease fire in the conflict, to start a few hours from now.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/trump-says-israel-iran-agree-to-cease-fire-aA95JjDgRgPcgWnlcMnB

Yes I just read about it. Israel - and the US - must have damaged Iran more than many commentators have thought. Though this could just give the ayatollah more time to work out what next from his very limited set of options.

I agree. If there were any important targets left to take out in Iran, Israel would not agree to the cease fire. And the only way to stop the ayatollah from thinking about his next move would have been to kill him or remove him from power.

I thought this was a fair summary of where things stand now.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-regime-change-donald-trump-qatar-base-israel-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-0d4de9fa?st=v684qP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink