Euro elections results

[policywonk]

Here's one prediction www.predict09.eu/default/en-us/state_analyses.aspx#united

Cheeringly, it reckons that the BNP won't win a seat. Here's hoping.

Is that just a feeling in your water RG or do you have something more substantial (but please, no odds)

...I would dearly love to claim inside knowledge.

However it is indeed just a watery feeling.

...I voted Green, and have always been Labour previously.

(even as an idealistic yoof in 1983)

...and so did my (resolutely working class, Bingo playing) mother. Though she still played the same trick on the Tories as she has done every election since attaining pensioner status..

(phoned them for a lift to the polling station, on the grounds that it stops them taking someone else who will actually vote for them)

...it's an outside bet, I confess.

The remarkable thing is that it is possible

I've been surprised by how many people on here are voting Green - I know it's hardly a representative sample, but nevertheless.

at your mum's tactics. Very sly.

Dp and I are lifelong labour voters and activists and we voted green. Almost everyone at work voted green ( defectors from labour and tory)

I voted Green but I always do for the European elections.

Oh, like those tactics, retiredgoth

I voted Labour but have voted Green in previous Euro elections

I am another lifelong Labour voter who voted Green this time. So is DH.
But the fucking Tories are now in control of our previously Lib Dem county council so I am feeling a bit guilty over my vote in the local elections. And will feel even more guilty when the inevitable cuts start to bite.

No getting rid of the tories here.

Strong Labour hold here usually and am a lifelong Labour voter myself.

I voted Green.

Will be interesting here.

Blardy BNP would never get a seat here.

Here here here

Ah didn't notice the second post, you did say 1/5 first though . Anyway, with regard to that post, 2/5 actually means the BNP would be expected to win 5 in 7 elections, not 3 in 5.

Which is better odds than 1/3 indeed, but the opening 1/5 price was too short, as they've never traded below 1.25 (which is the same as 1/4) on betfair). And also Betfair is still trading, whereas William Hill have closed their book, so when William Hill were offering 2/5 it's not clear what you could have got on Betfair.

Of course sometimes with these political markets the bookies can be a good place to go because whereas a single game of football can get about £20 million wagered on betfair alone, most political markets struggle to get to six figures, which can lead to very little liquidity.

SomeGuy - is it anything to do with pipping the post?

Please explain (erm - no don't). LOL

[head spinning emoticon]

NW result expected some time after 11.30 tonight apparently. Guardian website today was talking about possibility of BNP winning two seats in the NW. Aaargh.

I voted green as well, after a life of Lib Dem voting (and almost candidacy). Seems to be an awful lot of us on here (DH did the same).....

I would be amazed if BNP got anywhere here, really shocked. I'd be similarly surprised if green got in as well however, simply as there are a great many older people here who vote for the same person as a matter of habit

Peachy - out of interest why did you switch from LD to green?

I did the same. Am in the SE and preferred Caroline Lucas to either of the LD candidates. Last time I voted LD as I liked Chris Huhne and Emma Nicolson...they seemed stronger LD candidates to me.

11:30pm
blimey I can't wait up that long!!
Count faster count people, count faster!!

(would hate to be counting with that many different parties. Do they have to make 15 or so different piles? I can imagine I'd make all sorts of muddles if I had to do that)

Is Wales one big constituency, Peachy?

Looks like tonight is going to see 'good' results for far-right parties across Europe, bad results for centre-left parties and good results for green parties (predicted to come third in France at the moment).

Tweet from Martin Wainwright (Graun's man on the spot in the NW): 'North West turnout 31.9 % Highest in South Lakeland 49.9 and Pendle - BNP target - 44.6 Burnley, also target - 36'

Why are fascists so keen on voting

I take your point about needing to engage with BNP voters, SWC. But it is, quite blatantly, a fascist party. Presumably those who vote for it don't see that as a bad thing.

how do people have any idea what the numbers are if the votes haven't been counted yet?

womble, these figures are coming from people who are watching the counts (which are taking place now)

Wainwright reckons current votes in NW would result in 4 Cons, 3 Lab, 1 LD and 1 UKIP MEP. Don't suppose this means much at the moment though.

Policywonk- I had a conversation with someone on Friday (actually was lecturing them for not voting ) and I am not sure that it is people not seeing the BNP as a fascist party being a bad thing, it is that they have no idea that they really are.

I was horrified at having to discuss some of the BNP's lesser known barbaric policies to someone who 'just thought it was nice that they were looking out for British jobs'

thats a bit naughty policy! - I've always been told you can't tell anyone what is going on inside the count.

sorry who is wainwright..am I being dumb?!