Page 33 | Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 5

ofwarren · 2023-02-08T20:38:30+00:00

A new thread about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley in St Michael's on Wyre, Lancashire.

Justmeandthedog1 · 09/02/2023 15:02

itsnote · 09/02/2023 14:56

"I watched a video today of a spaniel just going through the fence next to the gate. It's just a normal wooden fence."

Is that a recent video @ofwarren or from when the fence was broken? The gaps in that fence are half an A4 sheet of paper, so 15cms. Willow is a stocky dog, it's impossible to know whether she'd attempt to squeeze through there. As I've said before, way too much onus on what a dog might or might not do!

A Springer would go over that wooden fence easily. Mine could clear a 6 ft solid panel.

Magnoliasunrise · 09/02/2023 15:02

Sugarfree23 · 09/02/2023 14:15

Thinking about the comparisons to when the boy went into the same stretch of river 45years ago. People saying that was before the weir was built.

When was the weir built and what was it built for?

My limited knowledge of weirs is they seem to be old and built to channel water towards mills or turbines. I can't think what you'd use one for in modern time for.

weir

noun
a low dam built across a river to raise the level of water upstream or regulate its flow.

itsnote · 09/02/2023 15:03

"A Springer would go over that wooden fence easily. Mine could clear a 6 ft solid panel."

Could. Not would. As earlier pps with similar dogs explained they're all different and nobody even knows where she went or if the dog saw anything.

confounded234 · 09/02/2023 15:04

HaggisBurger · 09/02/2023 14:51

An intelligence officer. Really? Jesus wept.

Full time mortgage advisors with two young kids based in rural Lancashire are often intelligence officers - yes.

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Don't you get it? That's exactly what They want you to think! Open your eyes! Duuurh </sarcasm>

Bluebellwood129 · 09/02/2023 15:05

AndysAudi · 09/02/2023 14:52

Tying a dog with a string seems.... bizarre to say the least.

If there was compelling evidence that Nicola is nearer the open sea by now I would have thought that PF would help with the search. He does not believe she is in the water, not near the bench nor anywhere nearer the open sea.

The case is as confusing and bizarre as it was 2 weeks ago.

PF has stepped away from the case though. There's no compelling evidence, it's simply the length of time that has passed since Nicola disappeared and the fact that all other searches have proven negative to date.

confounded234 · 09/02/2023 15:05

schloss · 09/02/2023 14:43

I have read this thread, and the previous ones, I do not usually comment on such things however I would like to give some insight into how "witnesses" to events are not always correct in what they report. My job can involve asking a number of people about certain events, it is a known issue that people differ in what they saw and report, there is no malicious action involved, it is purely how people behave.

I have been in the situation of asking very professional people to describe an event, I can receive very differing reports, to the point when it becomes almost impossible to know what is correct. Added to that, some people are easily influenced by the people questioning them, therefore providing the answers they "think" those people want to hear.

So in this situation, the differing narratives as to where the mobile phone was, could purely be the witness or witnesses, believing it was on the bench, but if a police officer then asks "are you sure it was no on the floor?" a witness then may answer " thinking about it, the phone may have been on the floor".

This scenario is a know issue when gathering information, so unless there are photographs or CCTV to confirm a situation, it is known that witnesses do not always provide 100% correct information as to what happened. It could be what it happening to cause the differences in reports as to the timeline and what happened?

Moving on the the police actions (this is not a criticism of Lancs police), they are only human, some humans will stick very to an initial opinion and not deviate from that opinion no matter what, others will be more open to outside help. The situation with the other search team, is it a case of the police had their feather ruffled and only allowed a small amount of "help" from him, with opinions differing as to if a body was in the water and if so, if it would be found?

A different force may have been more open and appreciated an external opinion and help? The sudden departure of the search team may explain the situation being the former rather than the latter?

In many professional environments having information means you can control the situation, if you do not have the information, sometimes behaviour is affected to the extent outward actions come across as though information is being held back, in order to protect the belief in only one scenario and the lack of proper information to confirm it. It can almost be an act of self protection.

I have certainly come across many professionals who will stick like glue to a scenario rather than allow others to assist or provide an alternattive narrative, on the other hand I have worked with many professionals who will consider anything and are very much a "say what you think, no matter how ludicrous it sounds, as it may help".

Moving on, I have looked at the latest available ONS stats on suicide - for women 45% are by hanging or similar, deliberate drowing is only the 4th most common method of suicide and is a very low percentage.

Finally, add in the media and I am not surprised there is an element of differing information being available and sometime Lancs police looking like they are witholding information (they may be for good reasons). I think the statement "we believe the most likely scenario is this was an accidental slip into the water with subsequent drowing, the reasons for this are X,Y,Z. We will pursue that opinion because of X,Y and Z but of course will always keep an open mind to other scenario, but the information we have means other scenario are unlikely" would have been better received and caused less speculation.

Thanks, this matches what i've been thinking but you've managed to articulate it much better than I could.

Original poster

ofwarren · 09/02/2023 15:06

confounded234 · 09/02/2023 15:04

Don't you get it? That's exactly what They want you to think! Open your eyes! Duuurh </sarcasm>

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I really want to put a laughing emoji on this but I'll get called names again...

OP posts:

Sugarfree23 · 09/02/2023 15:08

Magnoliasunrise · 09/02/2023 15:02

weir

noun
a low dam built across a river to raise the level of water upstream or regulate its flow.

Show quote history

I know what a weir is, every one I have ever came across has been used to hold back the water and funnel it towards some sort of watermill or turbine, even if the mill is long gone.
I am curious as to why one has been built at any point in the last 45 years.

Nameychangey2022 · 09/02/2023 15:08

Very haunting case. I really hope they find her either way, her poor family, I cannot imagine what they must be going through. Can't get my head around how someone can disappear like that. People don't disappear, there has to be something that has been overlooked.

If they don't find a body in the next week or so I think she will have been abducted. Very pretty lady and an isolated stretch, not hard to imagine some disgusting opportunist took advantage...perhaps someone who had observed her previously if she always took the same route. If they did, isn't it entirely possible that she was still in the area at 9.30 when her dog and phone were found. Albeit unable to talk/incapacitated and in the presence of her attacker, which is a chilling thought? The first finder/witness didn't stick around to find out. In which case there may be further evidence on the ground. Why haven't the police sealed off the area and have forensics using a fine toothed comb, unless they know for sure she entered the water? Is there a route a potential attacker could have taken Nicola unseen or hidden her? It's likely they wouldn't have known the CCTV was not working.. unless there was something obviously visible on it. But all that said surely there would be a sign of a struggle..unless it was someone she knew or they surprised her and knocked her unconscious.

Magnoliasunrise · 09/02/2023 15:13

Sugarfree23 · 09/02/2023 15:08

I know what a weir is, every one I have ever came across has been used to hold back the water and funnel it towards some sort of watermill or turbine, even if the mill is long gone.
I am curious as to why one has been built at any point in the last 45 years.

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to level the water upstream or regulate its flow

2023newyearnewname · 09/02/2023 15:18

The police are telling trespassers to not break into empty buildings and asking people to not speculate on social media and consider the family. No-one listens though.

Diverging · 09/02/2023 15:18

we believe the most likely scenario is this was an accidental slip into the water with subsequent drowing, the reasons for this are X,Y,Z.

Yes quite. The police have never actually given the X,Y,Z. Other than ‘because it’s most likely’.

2023newyearnewname · 09/02/2023 15:24

I agree it is really poor and some appear to be using as some sort of amusement/enjoyment. Very poor taste. Let the police do their job and wait.

2023newyearnewname · 09/02/2023 15:25

Steppedystep · 08/02/2023 21:32

I need to express my distaste for these 4000+ posts speculating and salivating over details. This thread is the worst of mumsnet.

My comment was following your comment at the beginning .. @Steppedystep

User45378754 · 09/02/2023 15:26

Plitvice · 09/02/2023 13:55

What, so you would want them to permanently sit at home with the exhausted/emotionally drained adults getting anxious? I wouldn't.

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I am sure Emma White on a TV interview last week said that they had continued with planned school disco and sleepover for the girls last Friday night.

Plitvice · 09/02/2023 15:28

User45378754 · 09/02/2023 15:26

I am sure Emma White on a TV interview last week said that they had continued with planned school disco and sleepover for the girls last Friday night.

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That sounds absolutely right to me. When my aunt disappeared (whereabouts unknown for months) life carried on for the children. I can't think why you would take their routines with their friends and close family away from them.

dawngreen · 09/02/2023 15:35

What is the point of this thread if only a few are allowed to comment, other than to agree with the police statements on day one? And if ppl cannot be bothered to read the news articles which stated drones above and below water were used.

Who the heck are you to comment on my writing skills, and make lame comments because you did not listen to the same news articles as me? Your attitude says more about you! @User45378754

lifeturnsonadime · 09/02/2023 15:38

TimeForMeToF1y · 09/02/2023 14:54

Im an intelligent woman and was actually discussing this with one of my children this morning

Going missing is actually pretty difficult without leaving footprints

Where do you go?
How do you get there?
How do you ensure no one saw you leaving?
How do you manage for money?
How do you stay hidden?

Unless you have an accomplice or have saved huge amounts of cash and can find places where cash is taken exactly how would you do it?

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Well at least 4 of those can be meticulously planned if you don’t want to be found, the other well that’s down to finding a window of opportunity.

which would be the same window of opportunity an abductor would have to find.

FantasticButtocks · 09/02/2023 15:39

suspect that the police have private, sensitive, personal information which it is not appropriate to share with the public as it is confidential - which they may have had from the start and/or has been built on as they have looked into her personal life over the last two weeks.

Yes, I agree that's likely.

Her partner immediately calling the police on hearing about the dog and the phone being found, suggests that he, for whatever reason, immediately thought the worst.

The police saying at the beginning they believed there was no third party involvement would be consistent with if they'd been informed by the partner or family member of some recent fragility, upset, row, crisis, threat to harm herself or mental struggle.

If a person intended to take their own life, but didn't want their children to ever know they'd done that, they might try to make it look like they'd accidentally fallen in the river. And perhaps go elsewhere and use a completely different method to actually take their life.

Leaving phone logged into silent call, sending messages just before, leaving dog, harness and phone near river, could all be ways to point everyone in the direction of an accidental event.

It may be that the family members, friends and partner all have differing opinions about her state of mind, they may not be in agreement.
Some of them might be closer to her than others.

SirVixofVixHall · 09/02/2023 15:39

Sugarfree23 · 09/02/2023 14:15

Thinking about the comparisons to when the boy went into the same stretch of river 45years ago. People saying that was before the weir was built.

When was the weir built and what was it built for?

My limited knowledge of weirs is they seem to be old and built to channel water towards mills or turbines. I can't think what you'd use one for in modern time for.

Flood mitigation measure.
The boy didn’t go in at same spot as the bench, he was thrown into a flooded tributary, but was then carried down into the Wyre and past the area where the bench is now, and on towards the sea.

SirVixofVixHall · 09/02/2023 15:42

FantasticButtocks · 09/02/2023 15:39

suspect that the police have private, sensitive, personal information which it is not appropriate to share with the public as it is confidential - which they may have had from the start and/or has been built on as they have looked into her personal life over the last two weeks.

Yes, I agree that's likely.

Her partner immediately calling the police on hearing about the dog and the phone being found, suggests that he, for whatever reason, immediately thought the worst.

The police saying at the beginning they believed there was no third party involvement would be consistent with if they'd been informed by the partner or family member of some recent fragility, upset, row, crisis, threat to harm herself or mental struggle.

If a person intended to take their own life, but didn't want their children to ever know they'd done that, they might try to make it look like they'd accidentally fallen in the river. And perhaps go elsewhere and use a completely different method to actually take their life.

Leaving phone logged into silent call, sending messages just before, leaving dog, harness and phone near river, could all be ways to point everyone in the direction of an accidental event.

It may be that the family members, friends and partner all have differing opinions about her state of mind, they may not be in agreement.
Some of them might be closer to her than others.

My DH would definitely call the police if my phone and our dog were reported found, over two hours after I had left for my walk.
Also he might have called them after arriving at the spot to collect the dog ?

Peverellshire · 09/02/2023 15:46

FantasticButtocks · 09/02/2023 15:39

suspect that the police have private, sensitive, personal information which it is not appropriate to share with the public as it is confidential - which they may have had from the start and/or has been built on as they have looked into her personal life over the last two weeks.

Yes, I agree that's likely.

Her partner immediately calling the police on hearing about the dog and the phone being found, suggests that he, for whatever reason, immediately thought the worst.

The police saying at the beginning they believed there was no third party involvement would be consistent with if they'd been informed by the partner or family member of some recent fragility, upset, row, crisis, threat to harm herself or mental struggle.

If a person intended to take their own life, but didn't want their children to ever know they'd done that, they might try to make it look like they'd accidentally fallen in the river. And perhaps go elsewhere and use a completely different method to actually take their life.

Leaving phone logged into silent call, sending messages just before, leaving dog, harness and phone near river, could all be ways to point everyone in the direction of an accidental event.

It may be that the family members, friends and partner all have differing opinions about her state of mind, they may not be in agreement.
Some of them might be closer to her than others.

Agree, it seems a shame if so, we can't (?) respect her wishes.

IMO he problem is many of the public don't really understand about the police having private information that changes things a bit so just see incompetence, inertia and anger builds as incompetence, imagined. This puts pressure on the force and on the spokesperson. Being very succinct and very clear in that case likely best. Having a strong boundary with no long press conferences?

It can be the same over misunderstandings where emotions run high around children and medical treatment,.

People can spot inauthenticity too, even with the noblest intent.

MaMisled · 09/02/2023 15:51

If Nichola has taken her own life, the team call, play date arrangement, continuing normal routine etc weren't necessarily to make loved ones believe it was an accidental fall into the river. She may have been fighting the desperate urge to end her life, each of those mundane actions may have been her forcing herself to carry on just a little longer, keep putting one foot infront of the other, in the hope things would improve. I truly hope she's just taken off through the bushes and out to find peace of mind.

User45378754 · 09/02/2023 15:52

FantasticButtocks · 09/02/2023 15:39

suspect that the police have private, sensitive, personal information which it is not appropriate to share with the public as it is confidential - which they may have had from the start and/or has been built on as they have looked into her personal life over the last two weeks.

Yes, I agree that's likely.

Her partner immediately calling the police on hearing about the dog and the phone being found, suggests that he, for whatever reason, immediately thought the worst.

The police saying at the beginning they believed there was no third party involvement would be consistent with if they'd been informed by the partner or family member of some recent fragility, upset, row, crisis, threat to harm herself or mental struggle.

If a person intended to take their own life, but didn't want their children to ever know they'd done that, they might try to make it look like they'd accidentally fallen in the river. And perhaps go elsewhere and use a completely different method to actually take their life.

Leaving phone logged into silent call, sending messages just before, leaving dog, harness and phone near river, could all be ways to point everyone in the direction of an accidental event.

It may be that the family members, friends and partner all have differing opinions about her state of mind, they may not be in agreement.
Some of them might be closer to her than others.

I think this is a possibility.

davegrohll · 09/02/2023 16:03

But apparently the police wasn't called until 11am? So her partner didn't immediately call the police did he ? Or does it mean the lady who tied the dog up left it that long to notify anyone?