Ukraine cannot win.

[Benmac]

I am so moved by the Ukrainians opposition to the Russian invaders.
However, without other countries assisting with troops on the ground it is inevitable that Russia will overcome Ukraine.
Europe and the USA cannot do that without starting WW3 and Putin knows that
So how much longer do we encourage Ukraine to hold out?
Should we not be making arrangements to get the president and his government out, let Russia take the country but leave all the sanctions against it in place.
They can have the land. Aid can be given to assist the refugees.
The sanctions will hit Russia hard when they get going. Let Putin then try to run Russia and Ukraine with no hard currency.
EU countries must take the hit and stop buying Russian gas which will slow money transferring in.
In an ideal world Ukraine would hold out long enough to force Russia to withdraw. In this real world thousands of civilians will be slaughtered from now and the end game will be the same

Nope, according to Putin's speech, he wants to reunite the Russia = Russia +Belarus +Ukraine, all Slavic nations, to one Great Russia.

I can't find a link saying the Snake Island soldiers were definitely killed, just slightly old reports saying they may not be. Can anyone confirm?

@BoredZelda

I heard some expert or other saying Putin has 190k troops. That’s enough to take Ukraine with a fair wind behind him, but it is nowhere near enough to occupy it for any amount of time.

He had 190k troops massed on the border before all this started. The Russian army is nearly 1.5m strong.

I think it’s a reasonable request for Ukraine to be a neutral country and not join NATO

Requesting is reasonable. Invading a country and murdering their children because the democratically elected politicians say, ' no thanks' is not.
It rather proves the point of why Ukraine wanted the protection of joining NATO in the first place. They knew Putin wanted their country as a land corridor to Crimea and it was only a matter of time till he tried to take it.

Have you seen Chechnya on a map, OP? It's tiny, 30 times less population than Ukraine. It took Russia 2 years to conquer, than a second war few years later, and up to this day it's a troubled region that costs Russia a fortune to keep under control.

Russia might win this fight, but they'll never be able to keep Ukraine.

By the way, I used to work with a woman who fled Idi Amin's regime. She, her mum and her gran managed to get asylum in England, two brothers went to Greece and two sisters went to the USA. That family were completely split up, over three countries when they used to live within walking distance from each other. Imagine that. Not your choice, someone else decided you had to leave or die so you end up in countries that you have no ties in, no roots and no family other than one or two people who came with you. Her gran couldn't speak English and had seen atrocities you hope you'd never see in your life. Getting help for her was hard because of her language barrier on top of everything else.

Being a refugee isn't as simple as being given a home and possibly a job and all the pain goes away.

Where do 44 million people go?

@donquixotedelamancha

Can they not just suggest a treaty that agrees they won't consider joining Nato until 2100 (in 78 years time) - or some other time frame, but that Russia needs to pull away immediately and leave them the fuck alone?

That was part of what Russia wanted but Ukraine didn't want to be told what to do. Russia will want a lot more than that now.

It's not at all clear giving in to a bully like Putin would work but (given we had no intention of allowing Ukraine into NATO) I do think the west dropped the ball a bit by not engaging with Russia years ago over NATO expansion.

I saw a suggestion (before the invasion) from two analysts that a potential solution would be for NATO to place a moratorium on accepting new members for a set timeframe, but Ukraine joining the EU on the condition that it would never join a (hypothetical) EU military alliance were one ever to exist in the future. There were other conditions they suggested that would, potentially, address both parties' security concerns. I'll try to find the article. It was quite interesting and they emphasised that finding a solution that was acceptable to both would take massive creativity.

Sadly not, they were blown up 😢

CNN begs to differ.

edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/snake-island-ukraine-russia-survivors-alive-intl/index.html

Russia can't win either. If the Ukrainians switch to guerilla war while Russia is being suffocated by sanctions, it will be a disaster for the Russians.

I also think we'll see a huge swing towards a hard right foreign policy with more hawks in power

Hmmm not so sure about this. It seems the entire western world is against this. And this is a different war to any other.

Is the leader of Ukraine a Millenniall? The Millennialls are a global generation. I suspect it’s them hacking into all the Russian info. And Millennialls will be rising into further positions of power.

Putin’s war just looks like an old fashioned ‘Cold War’ thing. It looks and feels out of date. I think we are moving towards more global politic not a right wing one. This war is the first war fought on social media. And this is what’s uniting everyone.

What do you think will happen to the Ukrainian people who have taken up arms, they will be shot or imprisoned.

@SpiderinaWingMirror

Where do 44 million people go?

This ^ Spiderina!

That's a country population that's just a little smaller than England's or 8 times the population of Scotland! Imagine all the English having to leave England!

So where would they go @Benmac?

Zeldaonadreamcloud no other world power would accept what they consider a threat to them though. The USA and it’s allies literally destroyed a whole country based on false intelligence. There isn’t going to be a peaceful solution unless both sides are considered.

@Ninananna

I like to think that the SAS and the USA equivalent are planning to assassinate Putin. I would gladly put a bullet in his head given the chance. I am in awe of the brave Ukrainian people. My heart breaks for them.

Putin has spent more than 2 decades (since before the frickin millenium), delibrately and carefully choosing who he has close to him, there will be no assasinations, unfortunetly.

The population of Ukraine is 44 million, most of which don't want to leave. While a lot have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, most have chosen to stay, or been unable to leave. Even if they could leave, or wanted to, where has housing and infrastructure for 44 million people?
Ukrainians have a right to their national identity as well.

And where will you re settle 44 million people?

I don’t think sanctions will touch him, it’s the general population of Russia who will suffer

I agree. Despots seem not to care one shit about their own people. Look at North Korea. Huge sanctions against them for decades, their people are starving. Fat Kim doesn't give a shit.
By thinking sanctions will work the European leaders are STILL treating him like a rational leader who thinks like they do.
And he's clearly not.

We either let him conquer and murder in as many countries as he likes, opening the door for other dictatorships to do likewise, or we join the fight. I don't see that there is a middle way.

He has overstepped a massive boundary in the world order and the democratic leaders are still cowering, covering their eyes and trying to respond like he hasn't.

@Lubeyboobyalt

YABVVVU - Russia cannot win and will not win

Russian soldiers are mostly young unmotivated lads who were lied to to get them over the border. They are tactically inept, running out of food and fuel. Their country is entirely bankrupt, currency worthless and now even China has cut them off.

This shit show cannot compete against the unified and motivated Ukrainians, now boosted by droves of extra soldiers from all over the world volunteering for them.

Slava Ukraini!

Thank you for this post @Lubeyboobyalt - I am not normally an anxious person and reading things like this helps me to realise there is at least a smidgeon of hope.

Ukraine can and will win and retain their independence. The rest of the world, almost, is against Russia and realise the importance of backing Ukraine. Do you not realise the implications of not defending Ukraine? Do you seriously think Putin will stop with Ukraine? The Russian people need to read the room, accept that they have been compliant with a despotic dictator for years. Ukraine will win.

Why the fuck should the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people just roll over and say sure Vlad can have my country, no worries, I'll get a hammer and sickle tat too, starting speaking Russian, hell I'll start wanking to pictures of Vlad, start calling him daddy Vlad and tickle his balls. No.

😂 😂 😂

On a serious note, how do we help the Ukrainians? Who do we send money to?
I would gladly take in some Ukrainian refugees. I really want to help in some way, what is the best way to do this?

@DenholmElliot

Ukraine, is in front of us. He won't stop at Ukraine, he'll keep going, and then he'll reach the UK.

He won’t need to actually get here.

He will have dominion over a quarter of the world’s grain production. Plus incredibly rich mineral resources in Ukraine and the oil and gas he already has.

He can effectively hold us under seige from his own EnormoTable.

Ukraine is the second most corrupt country in Europe, ahead of Russia. It will take many, many years and steely self-regulation to make it anywhere near ready to apply for the membership ofNATO.
Russia knows this🙄

@Benmac would you just capitulate when the result is that you will have to live under a dictator where there will be gurilla fighting for years to come, persecution of civilians in their own country and have you life forever changed and restricted to fit in with Putin and the Kremlins idea of the life you should have?

The thought of war and the thought of living like the above is making people leave everything they have to run to be free. Can you really say they should just cave?

Can you imagine leaving behind everything execpt the clothes you are wearing? Your home, your money, your career, posessions, family, friends....

Yesterday, I saw Imran Khan president of Pakistan did a new gas deal with Russia. There was a photo of them cosying up together. I am furious that the UK is paying Pakistan foreign aid that will end up in Putin's pocket. That foreign aid should be diverted to Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of food. They will be starving before long. We should be sending food urgently. I feel so sorry for those poor people. I see Poland offered every child refugee that enters Poland a place in a Polish school for the duration of time they are there. I think that is incredibly generous of them. We should accept more refugees from Ukraine even if it meant offering a temporary place. I have 2 spare bedrooms and would happily offer to a mother and child from Ukraine. I think others would do so too.