By all accounts, the news today suggests all is not going to plan...
First of all Putin clearly expected that the Russians would take Ukraine easily and quickly. It was being reported before it even started that soliders stationed in Belarus were not being properly supplied with food, and were having to buy their own. Many didn't have any money either, so either were relying on other soliders helping them out, or locals helping them.
This seems to be holding out, with troops 'running out of fuel' (maybe real or a good way to avoid the front line) and looting/asking for food from Ukrainians.
There's a video doing the rounds on twitter;
twitter.com/aliostad/status/1497519061554630658
In it there is an exchange between the russians and a ukrainian. The Russians state they don't know where they are going and they ask for news on how the war is going - they don't seem to be particularly motivated to say the least.
news.yahoo.com/russia-used-beatings-tricks-forcibly-191116730.html
Russia Used Beatings and Tricks to Forcibly Send Rookie Troops to Ukraine, Rights Group Says
Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.
The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.
“They are switching entire regiments to contract [soldiers,] although the guys did not submit any formal requests for this, and took no such initiative. There are instances of physical violence, and beatings of those who refuse to become contract soldiers. And after that it’s completely unknown [what happens to them], because they take away their phones,” Andrei Kurochkin, the deputy chairman of the group, told Takie Dela.
“We've had a flurry of calls from scared mothers all over Russia. They are crying, they don’t know if their children are alive or healthy,” he was quoted saying, adding that it’s a “complete catastrophe” when military service is performed “under duress.”
Again, I get a sense of this lack of conviction and basic supplies combined with the idea that Russia has sustained more casualties than expected is hitting moral hard. And its being taken seriously by Ukraine as a weakness because they've decided to do this:
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress
This evening, Ukraine will open a hotline for mothers, fathers, wives of the Russian occupiers who came to Ukraine with weapons but were captured or killed. The line will be called "Come back alive from Ukraine!" - Adviser to Internal Ministry reported
Which is bloody excellent propaganda.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian President is leading by example inspiring his fellow citizens and should he now die, is effectively going to be a martyr. Which, isn't a particular great scenario for Putin. The Ukrainans have a clear cause and reason to fight.
This does mean Putin is probably likely to throw the kitchen sink at things and it will get even uglier with human rights violations and citizens suffering because he's on the back foot and Russians start to ask more and more questions.
Mikhail Matveyev (CPRF) and Oleg Smolin (CPRF) are members of the State Duma and have now stated they oppose whats happening. They believe they had voted to recognise the independence of the Eastern territories (Donesk, Lugansk), not for a military invasion of Ukraine. Matveyev has said explicitly he voted for peace not war and there is a sense of being mislead. Seeing Kyiv being bombed isn't going down terribly well (which also suggests that there is a crumbling in the facade of the pretext of the war too).
If the Ukranians do manage to hold the line, then Putin's going to start having a domestic problem - as he looks weak. Indeed, its being reported by Al Jazeera (significant that its not an American or European news agency) that Putin is pretty pissed that the plan it is not going to plan and is too slow.
China abstained on the UN vote but has since said that it recognises Ukraines soverignty and one of Russia's closest allies Kazakhstan has reported refused as request for troops to help support Russia.
So its not exactly looking like a walk in the park or as if Putin would have the military ability or manpower to do a ground assault further West. He is trying to maintain the strong man pose with lots of hot air, and may well yet succeed in taking Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine, but he's going to face issues controlling the situation there from hostile locals and he still could lose a lot of credibility domestically, with the war being perceived as a failure in other ways.
The American experience has very much been the case that wars have been lost on the domestic front due to the body bags and loss of moral cause. The Soviets got bogged down in Afghanistan with a guerilla war.
Putin is in danger of cocking it up, even if he wins in Ukraine, if he's not careful and may have over played his hand. (But dictator backed into a corner, is also not a good scenario either).
He's now holding a chalice thats poisoned.