Is there a thread about the poisoning of Skripal? [title edited by MNHQ]

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I've not seen a thread about it at all, but surely there must be?

Given how powerful novichok is, my guess is that the police have had to reconsider how it was administered and where. Given that the victims were found alive and are still alive now and the fact that the policeman at least partially recovered fairly quickly suggests that it wasn't the case that someone smeared it on them or put it in their food and drink, for example. If there is no trace of the nerve agent in the house then they are still looking for the source/where it was administered.

Most CCTV pictures are less than useless from what I've seen gluteus.

'some old Russian bloke' and upwards of 35 others as collateral damage, using a chemical weapon.

At this rate we won't be going to war, it feels like a little kid throwing a few pebbles against a bear at the moment.

Russian Embassy are trolling us again.

Mature.

So as the UK can identify this chemical agent, by formula and origin, certainly enough to be 100% sure its from the Kremlin, then why the delays in Salisbury and the lack of information so apparent

Read an interesting article by Craig Murray. He alleges there is no sample of Novichok in the international database. He is unsure that it could be identified in the way uggested. I am wondering why we don’t supply a sample to be analysed under supervision.
The article says the novichocks were being developed in the Ukraine. They were designed to be able to be made anywhere, down your local chemist for instance.

www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/03/the-novichok-story-is-indeed-another-iraqi-wmd-scam/

The reason it seems more believable OYBBK is because it is.

The Blair dossier was based on assessments, based in information from sources whose veracity was good enough - but at the end of the day claims such as that could never be verified. And Blair, when asked if it has been 'sexed up' (ie too much weight placed on the parts of the info that supported what he wanted to do in the first place) ignored the actual question and instead started to deny the government had fabricated intelligence. Which tends to show it was all about spin and getting your way.

In this case, the government is saying 'We have this material in our labs and we have analysed it, and we can see actual scientific evidence of what it is. We (and everyone else) are unaware of anyone other than the Russians who have ever made this stuff. We have invited in OPCW to verify (and they either arrived yesterday or are arriving today)'.

So, if Porton Down have made a mistake in the analysis, it will be discovered. If, as I believe, scientists that specialised, looking at something that is international political dynamite, will double and triple and quadruple check everything and it is therefore vanishingly unlikely that a mistake has been made. So this isn't assessment and spin. It's fact. This is the substance.

No-one else has ever been known to make it. That doesn't of course mean no-one else ever could. But there really doesn't seem to be any suggestion whatsoever that anyone else has, or (aside from US or China) actually could.

"I am wondering why we don’t supply a sample to be analysed under supervision"

Because it's fucking dangerous stuff, and OPCW are coming to it, not taking it out of secure lab.

Craig Murray's reputation is mixed (to put it kindly)

“ i don't think we should be giving residence to double agent spies.”

The idea is that double agent spies work for us. Have done a good job for us, in this case identifying over 300 Russian agents causing potential havoc for the UK. The kind of people who could ultimately be the intelligence resource for a major cyber attack or interference in our elections... or referendums, for example.

"I am wondering why we don’t supply a sample to be analysed under supervision"

There will be only trace amounts found - once you’ve run what you have through a mass spec or whatever you’ve used there may be only the tiniest amounts of anything left. In blood there may only be metabolites or breakdown products left.

A third party that’s impartial needs to look at what they have I suppose

Kochab.
Yes I think it would only strengthen our international support if we had an independent body look at it and verify, if they can, that it is Russian in origin. The more facts we have the better as will stop Putins Russia denying and pointing the finger at others.

I completely agree with you Meditrina.

It would be pointless supplying a sample to Russia - it has to go to a third party.

If Novichok were so easy to make, why on earth would there be no samples in in an international database? That isn't logical.

Dunno Bad kitten. Why would anyone want to make it outside a military facility? Apart from getting some facts to actually pin down the Russians with hard evidence I would like to know exactly what this is. Correct me if wrong but it’s a sort of concentrated organophosphate? I know there has been a long association with farmers who used this chemical in sheep dip having increased rates of Parkinson’s and other neurological problems. It’s long been banned except in very low levels in Europe. We need to know what it is so that we can monitor people who have been exposed and perhaps seek compensation for them via ICC. That’s one of the reasons why we should have these hard facts imo

I suspect they need to keep some things secret at the moment while they deal with the OPCW. They will know much more about the agent than they are letting on.

agent = nerve agent, not the spy!

'If Novichok were so easy to make, why on earth would there be no samples in in an international database?"

Nerve agents aren't that easy to make - because of the need for the highest level containment needed and because for most nerve agents, the precursor chemicals are controlled. Novichok is known about because of defector information (that's a good reason to offer resettlement!) and that scientist has been giving interviews to the press (now resident is US). If (big if!) I understood the interview I saw correctly, the precursor chemicals for Novichok are not (all?) subject to controls. But you still need considerable expertise and securely contained facilities to make it safely (after all, you don't want to kill your own scientists).

Whether any NATO CW research labs have reverse engineered it based on the defector information is unknown. The consensus does seem to be that the chemistry would work. But as it's never been either declared or used, there are no actual samples of it.

Presumably, in this case they have analysed the chemical at Porton Down, have compared its structure to that described by the defector and concluded that it is indeed of the Novichok family. OPCW experts will now have the chance to check those findings. That should satisfy the French (who have also been asking for the evidence) but probably make one jot of difference to the Russian stance (which I saw described somewhere as 'implausible deniability')

Well this stuff is obviously easy enough to transport into the UK and deliver it to Salisbury.......

I believe after the collapse of the soviet Union, many defectors came across to the West, this is possibly why we know so much about Russia's chemical weapons, who is to say where the formula (or the chemical) of this NA went to? even within Russia.

I think its a very valid question to ask how we can be sooooo sure that this stuff and the assassination order came from the Kremlin/Putin, the consequences of getting this wrong are huge, far more than a regional war in Iraq.

I suppose it would be 'easy' (as in achievable) if you assume a secure facility somewhere - to make and test it, and to work out if it can be transported as precursor chemicals. And then devise a way to carry out final mixing and train someone to do that. And train someone in how to deliver it to target without poisining themself. That's quite an extensive manufacture and supply chain.

Yes, there were several BCW defectors, and a lot is known. Looking online will give you a lot of information. You could start with Wiki

Jasjas.
I agree. May said “ We can be almost certain” that this stuff is Russian in origin but I would want it absolutely verified if possible. A sample independently analysed with observers from all sides would be my way. That way we are above reproach and it gives less credence to all the distortions that Russia might try to spread

I don’t quite understand my self about the “signature” which identifies the origin. How verifiable is that? It it contaminants in the lab or the proportions used.
Anyone?

@Squishysquirmy
raglansleeve I'm a Russian mumsnet sleeper agent. I was triggered by the phrase "penguin bollard"

This made me laugh - no idea on context but appreciate the laugh

Need a bit of levity 😂😂

Everytime I read a thread like this what comes to mind is you gotta understand psychopaths. They don't care about their country, despite what they say. Who stands to make money/power from this awful incident:

• Putin - manipulating Russian public opinion in forthcoming elections and plus he wants instability in UK - he and his cronies have a huge vested financial interests in the UK. He's funding Brexit as he wants to break up the EU - his only real opposition to his expansionist ideals.

• Many conservatives and ultra right (Farage/Johnson/Gove etc) are complicit because they accept huge donations from them- they won't bite the hand that feeds them - more of a nip - hence the rather toothless response. They want Brexit to protect their power and financial interests.

• Trump won't speak out as he's in Putin's pocket due to his business interests in Russia.

• The EU are the only real security against Russian expansionism

• Corbin is walking a tightrope - he's torn between having to support his working class base who voted for Brexit, being Brexit leaning himself and keeping the young vote who don't want Brexit. I don't like the guy as I believe he's no friend of women, but I acknowledge he's in a tricky position. But he totally screwed up his response - why would he not want to criticise Russia - what's he stand to gain other than standing by his principals? Makes him look naive and stupid I think

tl;dr I don't know why people aren't looking at who's funding Brexit - the psychopaths are manipulating public opinion via all media - don't believe a word of it - read between the lines - money and power - that's their motivations and their thinking is "screw the bewildered herd" who think they care about them and the country

• Corbin is walking a tightrope

I don’t think he came across well in Parliament but he is not a good parliamentary performer.
I do think he is right to question the Russian money supporting the Tory Party. I think he is also right to say that we should follow the agreed protocols in this. We have to be whiter than white.
I don’t buy this, you can’t ask these questions now stance we get. Same in the Iraq war. It’s used to bury any pertinent questions.

I think it's safe to say the danger has passed. Russia has been firmly put in its place this morning by our Defence Secretary, who looks about 12, who has warned the Russians "they should go away and shut up".
That should do it!