What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Remainers aren't really being genuine here. They are saying you have 2 choices (media brainwashing?), either a hard border and return to violence or stay in the EU.

But thats not the case. Once we make it clear we are leaving and trade talks start after December, everyone will get around the table and sort out a virtual border.

The ROI, NI & the UK dont want a hard border so its only the EU pushing it. That is one reason why we voted to leave the EU, to stop them dictating how we run our country. So it makes leavers even more determined to leave.

A border in the Irish sea seems stupid. On paper it solves the problem. In practise it means the EU attempting to enforce a united Ireland against the wishes of the people of Ireland. It means the UK enforceing a customs border inside the UK. And who would enforce that? yeah I can really see the UK cracking down on UK trade, its ridiculous.

So sensible people can see throught this fearmongering attempt to stop Brexit and either we start trade talks in December and sort out a virtual border with the ROI or we accept the EU wont let us leave amicabily and we prepare for WTO trade.

FYI anyone who has anything to do with NI knows smuggling in Ireland has never stopped it is going on today and we put up with it. Just like booze cruises are starting from Scotland to England but is anyone suggesting we put up a border between us? (apart from the SNP of course)

FaithHopeCharityDesperation Sun 26-Nov-17 11:20:33
BrokenBiscuit - NI & Ireland are not the Calais Jungle, and I don't see that happening tbh

Are you saying you voted Leave because you were spooked by the thought of non-Europeans entering the UK?

Hear hear Mary. You're spot on as usual. Brexit was only ever about that. The ignorance of the British government is breathtaking. Cameron, Boris & Gove - pass the bucket please. As for that letter to TM saying she was doing a great job, how utterly mortifying for them. Luckily she had the grace to ignore it.

I give TM another 6 months max she looks more frail and petrified by the day. I genuinely dont wish any harm on her personally.

From my perspective living in NI the British government looks like it's in freefall. They think we have problems here in NI. They haven't a clue. The majority of Europe is laughing at them. All they have done is put themselves on an international stage for people to cringe for them.

Boris is doing the work of two men - Laurel & Hardy.

People may forget how much history and how much terrorism the Irish 'question' has caused in over 100 years now and 800 years prior to that. I wouldn't want to be in charge of making a decision on it, that's for sure. The answer was quietly sailing along there for about 20 years until Brexit came up. Maybe the whole lot have disbanded, but I have a feeling that if you poke one group they will poke back. I very much wonder how much Gerry Adams is involved in any talks on the situation. It is very much my own silent opinion, well normally silent, but I do feel he holds sway with paramilitary elements. I know it has never been proven etc. I do feel that he has been particularly quiet on the issue. As has Sinn Fein on a larger scale. They normally are extremely vocal on issues. I haven't seen one statement from them re Brexit which is concerning. I don't follow Irish politics much though.

You're right Who it's an awful mess. It just goes to show how messy it can get when you steal a country from its indigenous population.

Maursh
Also, I do think it is because the UK ministers concern themselves about the unstable situation and history that I cannot see them putting up a border.

'History', eh?

In other words, the UK is staring at a circle that must be squared because not only did Theresa May hand the fate of her government over to Arlenen Foster, the government is afraid of the DUP and its loyalist paramilitary wing.

You have to admit, all of this would be a lot easier if the DUP weren't acting the maggot as usual...

I suspect a lot is going on behind the scenes in terms of talks which none of us will need to be privy to. We will get told on a need to basis.

The Irish government keeps us very informed. Maybe the British government just don't understand it all.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine
So when the EU puts their foot down, and says that Ireland needs to control the border, what can poor Ireland really do?

-Join Schengen, watch the scramble on the northern side to erect a nice big barbed wire fence, barricade 95% of the roads crossing the border, watchtowers, etc.

-Watch NI reduced to penury as Brexit effect kicks in. Redouble efforts to hold a united Ireland referendum in NI, keep on organising and chipping away at the hard Brexit/Unionist position. Brexit is going to hurt NI business and agriculture and the public sector, which is NI's biggest employment sector.

-There will be a referendum anyway due to changing demographics. Ireland can play a longish game here, with the end envisioned by Enda Kenny with the backing of all other Irish parties in sight. It is spelled out in the guarantee Ireland got from the EU that NI would return to the EU in the event of reunification.

-Second prong of the long game is to bolster the campaign for a referendum in the Irish community in the US in hopes of a payoff once Trump is gone.

mathanxiety. I appreciate your intelligence and knowledge but I think you might be ignoring the history entirely. In the click of a pin, violence could restart (from both sides). I think you're looking at a sort of generalised view of NI and Irish and overlooking the individual feelings on both sides. You are probably looking at 20 years of peace in NI. It may not be as stable as you think. Once the feelings of both sides of the border are respected, peace will remain, but if Brexit affects that, all hell will break loose.

FaithHopeCharityDesperation Sun 26-Nov-17 15:06:04
Wrt the UK being able to have a hard border at Calais, but not between NI & Ireland - that's because post Brexit the UK can decide for itself what borders it has, and whether they're hard, soft or non-existent. (Wrt goods & people)

The UK can't do this and also conclude a trade agreement with the EU, which is currently the UK's biggest trading partner.

Any trade agreement with the EU post Brexit will include terms on policing of the UK's border in order to ensure goods are not dumped in the EU, either in finished form or in the form of auto parts made from poor quality steel, etc., or goods originating in countries that are currently sanctioned by the EU.

No trading nation can decide unilaterally what its borders are, whether they're hard, soft or non-existent. How the future UK borders will take shape is up to all future trading partners just as much as it is up to the UK.

Maursh Sun 26-Nov-17 17:57:52
Oh and when I say that the UK leaving EU is terrible for Ireland I am accused of gaslighting and asked for sources - but seems that it must be truth if it is published in the guardian

You are gaslighting if you throw in trade figures that you have 'plucked out of thin air', to be diplomatic about it.
'85% of Irish trade is with the UK', was it?

Are you saying you voted Leave because you were spooked by the thought of non-Europeans entering the UK?

I have literally no idea why you would make up an assertion like that Math.

My comment re the Calais jungle was in response to another poster who made it first.

This is not the first time you have twisted someone's post to infer racist sentiment.

I have been explicitly clear that I am in no way 'spooked' or otherwise by 'non-Europeans' - I never have been.

Stop being goady & dishonest.

And your latest post that referenced me is another deliberately conflated mix of nonsense, math.

LivLemler
The DUP aren't the only ones who wouldn't accept [a border in the sea] - neither would the loyalist paramilitaries. I fear this situation would be as likely to lead to violence as a hard border between ROI and NI. I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but I certainly don't think it's a magic solution.

It is a huge pity that the unconstitutional and illegal stances and threats of Unionists and their paramilitary wings have been enabled since the 1900s by British politicians, most recently by the gross ineptitude of Theresa May.

The Assembly is a dead duck, just as the DUP wanted, and the DUP now wields real power in Westminster. Brexit will be whatever the DUP decides it will be, in part because the DUP doesn't tend to blink, and why would it? In all the history of Unionism the lesson to take away is that saying a firm 'NO' and folding your arms will get you what you want every single time, no matter what contortions the Tories have to twist themselves into as a result, and no matter what the cost to the constitution and UK human and civil rights, or the safety of the ordinary British people, or the international reputation of the UK, or complication in the relationship with Washington.

In the current circumstances, the likelihood of the Tories standing up to the DUP are slim to none - there is the matter of the self inflicted minority government after all, and yyy, this is also in part due to the threat of loyalist violence, which would have the effect of making the UK look like a country imploding on itself.

Successive governments, but especially Tory governments, have made a rod for Britain's back.

Most Brexiteers didn't and still don't get why this is even a Thing. I'm still utterly stunned at how many English (note not British) think that Ireland is just like a sort of Wales but off the coast - essentially British, and are astonished to find out it's an entirely different country.

So if you ask the numpties who voted Leave about this, it's of no more relevance or a problem then say, managing the border into Wales. And on that piss poor basis, nothing will be done. Nothing. It'll be a sort of "wait and see" if JRM's few hundredweight of beef comes over, or things get a bit more complicated.

Julie
A border in the Irish sea seems stupid. On paper it solves the problem. In practise it means the EU attempting to enforce a united Ireland against the wishes of the people of Ireland. It means the UK enforceing a customs border inside the UK. And who would enforce that? yeah I can really see the UK cracking down on UK trade, its ridiculous.

How sure are you that a united Ireland would be against the wishes of the people of Ireland? Ireland has been united in pretty much all but name for the past few years, and despite ongoing petty incidents and displays of tribalism, there has been a peace dividend, tourism has taken off, regional plans have been carried out in areas like healthcare where economies of scale have benefited all, and both sides of the currently non-operative border have managed to get along well, even to the point of Ian Paisley Jr signing applications for Irish passports for his constituents.

The UK is ok, it seems, with NI going its own way on the issues of abortion and gay rights, and for decades NI sorted out its own gerrymandering of constituencies and the installation of a system of sectarian-based apartheid while Westminster held its nose and looked the other way. There is clearly no principled objection to the concept of NI being a law unto itself within the UK and there never has been.

The customs posts at Larne and Belfast and all airports would handle goods arriving in NI (and therefore possibly moving on to Ireland) just as all lorries heading to Belfast from Dublin Port before 1993 were stopped at customs on the (very much closed and heavily policed) border even if they had come from Liverpool.

Mathanxiety
Total agreements. Additionally julie
Consider that NI voted to Remain.
I really don’t understand your point about smuggling going on to this day over the Irish border? You do know that there is currently free movement of goods and people between Ireland and the U.K? What exactly do you think is being smuggled over the non existent border?
There will have to be a border of some kind if NI is not in the Customs U. Or SM. It’s not just about trade in goods. Without a border people, including, god forbid, hoards of Turkish people could cross at will.

Whoyagonna
I know there is no accounting for fringe groups, and they tend to mushroom among NI paramilitaries, but I have a strong feeling that discipline on the Republican side is solid at the moment. This is because despite a good deal of provocative talk by the DUP over the past months, SF have not taken the bait.

I think this may be due to the increasing profile of SF in Irish politics - seats in the Dail, potential as coalition partners - which makes the possibility of influence over NI's eventual fate more within their grasp then before the GFA and before the entry of Adams' SF into the Irish political scene.

There has been an extraordinary degree of unanimity among the major political parties in Ireland including SF over the approach to Brexit, in part because all parties are looking over their shoulder at SF, which has the potential to snag a seat here and there from everyone in any future GE. Part of the issue when the Troubles broke out was a perception that the Republican pov was getting a hostile reception in Dublin as well as London - Jack Lynch was only slightly less hated than Liam Cosgrave back in the early 70s in Republican circles, including the more Republican wing of FF. I do not think this perception of being friendless and fighting alone exists any more, and SF is more willing to go along and get along as a result.

SF of course has to guard its flank - there was an incident on Armistice Day in Omagh after all (though you have to wonder about false flag operations too) - but I suspect Adams runs a tight ship and has carried the day as far as tit for tat violence goes, or as far as making statements by means of bombs goes. SF has won the political allegiance of the majority of NI nationalist voters on a platform of political engagement and support for the GFA and will not risk losing that by returning to association with paramilitary action. That would jeopardise its position in Irish politics too.

FaithHope
My comment re the Calais jungle was in response to another poster who made it first.

You are mistaken.

Here is the exchange of posts:
Brokenbiscuit Sun 26-Nov-17 11:15:51
The UK doesn't need or want to erect a border. It's the EU that are desperate for a border.

So, forgive me if I'm being stupid, but if the UK doesn't need or want to control its borders, what was all the rhetoric in the referendum about? Do people no longer care about immigration after all?

I guess the anti-migrant propaganda has served its purpose now. Time to move on.

FaithHopeCharityDesperation Sun 26-Nov-17 11:20:33
BrokenBiscuit - NI & Ireland are not the Calais Jungle, and I don't see that happening tbh.

The only people I see talking about an Ireland/NI border to control movement of people, and about 'Leavers being furious at the lack of control of borders' are remain voters 'imagining' what Leave voters think about it all.

The previous comment, to which you responded, was about immigration, with no specific country of origin of the immigrants or migrants mentioned. BrokenBiscuit might well have been referring to Poles, Lithuanians, etc. You are the one with the Calais Jungle on your mind, full of non-Europeans.

Your response also indicates that migrants of the 'we don't mean you - you're all right' variety are ok to you. NI & Ireland are not the Calais Jungle

If you're trying to suggest that the infamous Farage poster didn't sway voters at all, you are barking up the wrong tree. That poster was designed to hit a hot button, and it did.

Forgetting Brexit for a second, I agree with the assertion that GA and SF have basically enough control over the republican paramilitaries to keep things in check while it's politically wise to do so.

I don't believe the DUP, or anyone else, has similar control on the loyalist side, so I do have to admit they scare me more for now.

However, GA is stepping down and while I'm sure he'll continue to pull strings behind the scenes, his influence will wane. SF will be lead from Dublin and presumably their control will weaken.

Adding Brexit to the mix, which gives both sides cause to kick off (in their view, I'm not saying I think violence is justified!), at such a time doesn't seem like the safest of situations.

I still don't know the answer though!

Not so sure they will be led from Dublin, or that GA's influence will wane. I do not see him as the type to take up golf in his later years.

JRM on border controls:

Throughout the campaign the question of immigration resonated. The vote to leave was unequivocally a vote to control our borders and significantly reduce net migration and this must be implemented swiftly. Indeed controls will need to be applied before we have left otherwise large numbers may try to come here just before the deadline. 27/06/2016

So he was not just demanding hard borders post-brexit, he wants them up and running asap. Maybe Gove could have a word with his best mate Trump and get 500 km of his famous wall shipped over PDQ?

Or could it just possibly be that the saintly JRM hadn't even considered the affect on the border in Ireland, and just assumed the loveable Irish would just fall in line and do what their betters tell them?

Interesting piece a friend shared on FB from the Border Communities Against Brexit page.

www.facebook.com/bordercommunitiesagainstbrexit/

Our comments at the Michael J Murphy winter school.

Will Brexit Move the Border???

Its the will of the Irish Government for the EU border to be moved.

Its the position of the majority of the political parties on the Island of Ireland.

Its been the position of BCAB since our formation.

From our discussions with EU Leaders & negotiators, they would grant the Unique status to allow our EU border be moved to the Irish Sea.

Added to this the EU parliament has a veto on any final deal the British Government get with the EU, & they voted recently to effectively grant Ireland a special status and to protect all parts of the GFA.

So here we are less than 3 miles from the border and less that 3 weeks from an EU Council meeting that will determine the future of the Border in Ireland.

Geo political forces will decide if we have a Hard Border or remain as we are to travel and trade as we do now, with the EU border placed in the Irish Sea.

OR

Will the Conservative & Unionist Party face down Europe & the Irish Government, not allow itself to start trade talks, over a region which is less than 3% of the UK population?

AND

Will the DUP continue to bury its head in the sand and still use language like WE WILL NOT COUNTANCE A DEAL DIFFERENT FROM THE REST OF THE UK.

BUT WE ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE UK in many aspects of life from the cradle to the grave

We have the Good Friday Agreement which allow everyone born in NI to be Irish or British or both. Those with Irish Passports are EU citizens.

We have our own Ulster Bank Notes, which as most of you will know is not accepted in the UK

We have our own Car Registrations

Our measure of Spirits is almost double that of the UK

We have retained our Townland names & are very proud of them

We burn towering inferno's on the 11th of July which damage the environment and burn peoples houses

We also pay lots of people to burn boilers, which burn money with no financial CAP

We pay our politicians who are legislators not to legislate

We don't allow Gay couples to get married

We have NO abortion law

We have received Billions of PEACE Funding & other EU Infrastructure Funding

We have an All Ireland Energy Market

Our schools break of for holidays at different times especially in the summer

We have different Examination boards

UK Companies often will NOT ship to NI only to UK

Our farm size is half that of the UK, ours 40 hectares, UK is 80 hectares

We have an all island animal health strategy

Livestock must have a passport to go from NI to UK

And guess what? So do the people as well; in Aldergrove, Derry & the City Airport.

How many hundreds of times has DUP MP's and other politicians used their passports to travel to London?

In the few examples I have given its very very clear that in so many many ways we do things differently here or in another way.

That does not mean that people living in this part of Ireland are any less Irish or British.

It means we adopt, and come up with solutions and accommodations that allow us as a people, who are neighbours and friends to live and work together.

It is WRONG for anyone to turn this Brexit debate into an Identiy issue.

The constitutional position of Northern Ireland has been settled by the GFA 20 years ago.

The choice is stark, a Hard Border, which will have to protect the integrity of the European Union, which will cause thousands of jobs losses in the North, enormous anger in Border communities, or by placing our EU border in the Irish Sea, so we can ALL live, work & trade as we do know.

math - I agree Gerry will remain active in the background for the time being, but she will come for him before too long. And the party will be lead from Dublin, not Belfast, by Mary Lou McDonald.