What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Age will come!

We are back to ULSTER SAYS NO aren't we? Only this time Ulster can insist on NO because of the hold they have over Westminister.

I believe the Unionists would rather see a hard border and a return to the 1970s than agree to any weakening (as they see it ) of the Union. They would see an Irish sea border as a weakening of that Union, and it's their pressure on May that has seen the British government rule that out entirely as a solution.

I can see their point, in a way; it's obvious from the assembly fiasco that at the moment Northern Ireland couldn't operate as an independent country. There is still too much of a divide. So the choice is to cling ever more firmly to "the Union" and hope any thought of joining Ireland as one country is knocked on the head.

I think the Unionists are on a losing slippery slope (but I've been thinking that since about 1985 and they are still clinging on).

I also think the Nationalist paramilitaries are scum and I have no respect whatsoever for Gerry Adams. I think there are criminal elements on both sides of the sectarian divide who would jump at the chance of returning to violence

Your response also indicates that migrants of the 'we don't mean you - you're all right' variety are ok to you. NI & Ireland are not the Calais Jungle

Math, you are a consistently disingenuous poster who wilfully twists other people's words to fit into whatever agenda you have decided to assign to them.

Don't do it to me.

Genuine question for Julie. How does a "virtual border" work? I don't know much about it.

Whizziwig

I suspect she means something similar to the Norway/Sweden border, which makes much use of technology to track imports, vehicles etc. However, there is still a lot of infrastructure needed, including old-fashioned border posts, guards etc.

As both countries are part of the Schengen Area, there are no border controls for people as Norway has signed up to the "4 Freedoms" as part of the EEA. However, as Brexitiers refuse to allow free movement, I suspect it would be more like the Norway/Russia border.

One of the most infuriating things is that when (not if) there is a resurgence in violence, whether from the loyalist or republican side, the response from GB will be utterly clueless.

A redoubling on their part, because “we cannot give in to terrorism”, and an attitude that what else can you expect from a backward dump like NI. And a total refusal to acknowledge that their policies contributed to the situation.

How sure are you that a united Ireland would be against the wishes of the people of Ireland? Because the party pushing for a united Ireland Sinn Féin has never got a majority in either NI or ROI. And polls (as reliable as they arent) are no where near it.

Ireland has been united in pretty much all but name for the past few years
You mean despite the currency border, the income tax border, the VAT border, the corporation tax border and oh yea and lets not mention that the NI assembly hasnt sat in 6 months and had to have its budget passed by westminster! Dont even mention that the real IRA is still trying to kill police officiers. Yeah lets keep on dreaming that its been united.

And I wake this morning to hear the former Taoiseach of ROI saying there is no reason why a virtual border can't work. The EU are just trying to stop Brexit.

How does a "virtual border" work? I don't know much about it
Well the amount of goods physically travelling across a physical ROI/NI border is tiny, around 5%. As is used else where across EU borders, cameras, vehical recognition technology and authorised trader schemes mean there is just no need for a physical border.

Well the amount of goods physically travelling across a physical ROI/NI border is tiny, around 5%

How does the other 95% travel, worm-holes?

How does the other 95% travel, worm-holes?
The other 95% is traded with the UK and the rest of the world. Duh!

That 5% figure does not take agricultural goods into account, a v large quantity of which travel across the border and back again during the production phase. Duh!

And a trusted partners system would work fine for agricultural products. No physical needed. sorted.

Julie "As is used else where across EU borders, cameras, vehicle recognition technology and authorised trader schemes mean there is just no need for a physical border." - isn't that just within the Schengen Area? I thought that there were hard borders between the EU and all other countries.

Is the UK happy to be part of Schengen and allow free movement of people? Because at the moment I think that the UK and Ireland are not part of Schengen (Ireland didn't join up because UK didn't and Ireland were keen to have no border within the island of Ireland is my understanding, but correct me if I'm wrong).

Again I might be wrong, but i thought the reason the UK can't stay in the customs area and the free trade area with the EU is that they won't allow free movement of people. In which case there has to be a border.

Obviously we are all talking in a vacuum here - the only people who actually know what the UK government is going to do is the government itself, and they don't seem to want to tell anyone.

"No physical needed. sorted"

I wish it was that easy [sigh]. I may be cynical, but I would have thought if it was that easy it would have been agreed by now.

isn't that just within the Schengen Area? does it matter? What matters is that it can work. I dont imagine the ROI is worried about a horde of English migrants swarming across to Dublin. And the UK isnt worried about Irish migrants moving to Belfast. The UK can deal with any illegal migration in situ as it does at the moment, so no need for border towers.

I would have thought if it was that easy it would have been agreed by now Except EU politicians dont want to agree it because they are using it to stop us leaving.

As far as I know, there are no open borders, virtual or otherwise, with any EU state and another country who hasn't signed up for the 4 freedoms of movement, even mirco states are covered. UK is demanding one, but apparently are not prepared to put any effort into defining what one would look like, or presumably to fund it.

This is now being spun as the EU not wanting to agree on something which they don't know what it is, how it will work or cost, as being obstructive. It's the EUs problem, apparently, nothing to do with the UK. A border only works if both sides agree on it's delivery, at the moment one party is behaving like a spoilt brat and not offering any assistance. Who knows what may flow across this as yet mythical border, if I lived in an EU state I'd want to know for sure what is being put in place, otherwise I'd be telling my politicians not to agree to anything until its sorted.

The whole point of the EU is that there are to all intents and purposes no borders inside the trading bloc, but then a strong border around the trading bloc. That's why it was called Schloss Europa. So all member states could be happy that anything flowing freely into their state from a neighbouring member state was checked and legal. The EU cannot change that position, it is a fundamental part of the EU.

Let's put it this way. We are still a member until 2019. How would the people advocating no border, just don't bother feel if the EU announced tomorrow they weren't going to bother with their borders anymore. So no border between us and Turkey, or us and Russia. Would you be happy? Doubt it.

The EU have to protect themselves. We (the EU) are the most forward thinking trading bloc in the world. We have the best safety and environmental standards. Member states understandably do not want those standards undermined. We can give them no guarantees that we will adhere to those standards in the future, in fact brexiteers on the whole have been saying they are looking forward to cutting these after brexit. Add in the stated desire for a big trade deal with the USA whose products don't meet those standards and you can see why the EU can't leave a back door open.

The main issue is surely that we need to guarantee we will either continue to harmonise our standards, in which case we may as well remain in the single market which would basically solve most of our problems right now. Or we need a border of some sort. But then we come back to where, how.......

Of course it matters [baffled]. The UK won't agree to free travel, the UK won't join Schengen. The UK won't say what they are doing instead.

I see, by the way, that I'm right in saying "free movement between Ireland and England" actually means "we are ok with white Irish coming over". Have you not realised that Ireland will be part of the EU so all those pesky Eastern Europeans can travel to Ireland, then to Belfast, then across to the UK mainland if there are no borders to check that it is only Irish citizens entering the UK? You won't catch illegal migrants if there are no borders.

Re your second paragraph: EU politicians can't agree to it, because the UK won't come up with anything to agree to . Of course the EU would agree to free movement, that's what they have at the moment. It's the UK that wants out.

Do I really have to explain this? Do you really believe that what you are saying makes any sense at all? No wonder the whole thing is a fuck up.

No Brexitteer I know gives a shit about Ireland.

They're like: 'Meh, why can't it just stay as it is, or get in CCTV or special rights or something'. They just don't care.

The important thing for them is, to stop the Muslim 'hoards' swimming over from the Calais Jungle. That's what they are obsessed about. That's what Brexit means to them.

I don't think these people talking about virtual borders and soft borders have ever actually crossed a land border. Frontiers and borders exist whether Brexiters like it or not: they are international facts. You can mitigate them with FTAs etc but you can't just ignore them. It's not Ireland and the EU making this up: the WTO insists on it too. Unless Brexiteers are planning on not even going under WTO rules too....

I went from France to Switzerland this morning. Switzerland currently has a closer agreement with the EU than Brexiteers are planning: they are in Schengen and adhere to the 4 freedoms as part of EFTA. Lots of bilateral agreements with the EU.

I drove through a physical border, guarded by an armed member of the Swiss police. He nodded me through - I'm a middle aged white woman with local French registration plates on my car - but if I had been driving a non local car, an Italian car and/or been a young man of north African origin, the chances are I would have been stopped by this armed man and questioned, and possibly had my car searched.

If my car had Geneva plates and it was a Saturday morning, even a middle aged woman might be stopped and searched to make sure she hadn't bought too much meat or alcohol while in France and that her total purchases didn't go over about €300 and so be eligible to be taxed.

This happens ALL THE TIME on the Swiss / French Schengen border with freedom of movement for people. This is the reality of a frontier and no revamped CTA gets rid of the need for a border, somewhere.

This is what USED to happen crossing the North, but stopped, thanks to a combination of the GFA, which helped remove the armed soldiers and the EU single market in 1993 (which co-incidentally happened around the time of the GFA so people confuse which was responsible for which). Having this in the north is going to be a nightmare. I remember crossing the border into the North many times before 1993. It was not fun. We cannot go back to those days.

The important thing for them is, to stop the Muslim 'hoards' swimming over from the Calais Jungle. That's what they are obsessed about. That's what Brexit means to them.

I disagree.
Certainly on MN most Leavers do not seem to be motivated by that at all (and are usually more literate, which is what I am assuming you meant by the 'hoards' thing?)

I do however see a lot of 'what all Brexiters think' bandied around by a vocal minority of Remain voters.

I said those were the Brexitteers I know.

I must be particularly unlucky.

Sadly all the leavers I've ever met seem to have "stop the immigrants" as their main reason. Tied up with economic arguments (they are taking our jobs), financial reasons (they are pushing up rents) and insular (we Brits are the best) reasons.

I'm sure there are nice Brexiters, I'd love to meet one and have a proper discussion about what exactly they think is going to happen next.

To be fair to Brexiters though, they aren't the only ones who don't give a shit about NI. Most "mainland" British people don't; probably because they really don't know much and (understandably) just think it's far enough away for it not to matter. A bit like the attitude of a fair few English to the Scots and Welsh probably

Or maybe it isn’t easy and you just don’t understand the problem. The UK has caused this, and therefore the onus is on the UK to develop a sensible (as opposed to cloud cuckoo) response, not the EU.

it's funny to blame the UK for this. The UK didn't "cause" this. There was a referendum and the people want out. As a country with self determination, sure that is our right.

It is the EU insisting on a border there. Not Ireland and not the UK. Yet it's somehow the UK's responsibility.

habanero the ‘people’ could want Father Christmas to be real and for Rudolph to leave shiny little rainbow poo on their doorsteps, that doesn’t make it something that will happen. International law is a funny thing, it applies to us all, we can’t just wish it away or blame the EU.