What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

It is long, it is from an Irish perspective, from a highly regarded Irish journalist. I think it is a great article.

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1117/920981-long-read-brexit/

Remember Ireland has a veto in phase 1, which they won't have in phase 2. But the UK wants to skip the border issue in phase 1 and align it with the Trade talks in phase 2. Right, sure.

And there could be a snap election in Ireland over a vote of no confidence in the Minister for Justice next week. The election would happen during the crucial border talks timeframe. Uh Oh.

Interesting times ahead.

I had read that article previously Cathy and found it very informative. Ireland effectively losing its veto in round 2 hadn't occured to me, and it's easy to see why Ireland (rightly) isn't going to just let this go.

I believe that Ireland will have the right to veto any transition arrangement that the UK wants to put in place (as will any other of the EU27). It's hard to imagine that we won't be begging for a transition deal pretty shortly as there is no way that, even if we were to move onto P2 of the talks next month, there is time to stitch together a trade deal before autumn 18 which would allow for ratification.

I hate to be fatalist but we will not be moving onto the next stage of talks on December, and there will be no transition deal :(

Maursh more unreferenced assertions. Where are you getting this 25% figure?
This poll suggests 88% of Irish people favour remaining in the EU, rising to 99% of full-time students.

No Twooter, but I am saying that Britain should take responsibility for the possibility of violence in Britain and not just say "not our problem, it's Ireland, let Ireland deal with it" which is what they've been doing for most of the last century

Great article, cathy.

The veto bit is interesting; why on earth would Ireland let the border issue be kicked down the road to a phase they have no veto over?

Maursh, I don't believe that anywher near 20% of the Irish electorate wants to leave the EU. Guess who thinks Irexit is a good idea?

* Oh and when I say that the UK leaving EU is terrible for Ireland I am accused of gaslighting and asked for sources - but seems that it must be truth if it is published in the guardian*

maursh regardless of what it says in the guardian (in a comment piece, rather than news reporting, which is an entirely different thing), you have made incorrect and unreferenced statements of fact at least twice in this thread.

This was a major problem in the leave campaign, as you may remember.

what is particularly bad here is the complete pointlessness of the two major parties is NI, who are baying from the sidelines but aren't doing anything constructive because they can't get past their own differences to do something to save the people they represent and then they whine that the Westminster government needs to step in and fix it for them.

BWatchWatcher - to be fair to SF, the NI Assembly became completely redundant the minute the DUP signed the agreement to wag the tail of the Westminster government. They can't simultaneously abide by the GFA/participate in powersharing on the one hand and literally hold the power to bring down the UK government on the other. I suspect SF is having a good deal of input even as a shadow lurking on the sidelines in Irish politics. FF in particular does not want to be outflanked.

This is such a conundrum.

But I think (hope) that those in NI will eventually accept an Irish Sea Border. Can you imagine that! Or accept a Norway type solution.

The problem is the DUP will not accept this. Sinn Fein as far as I can see have been sitting on the fence. But why wouldn't they, they are not propping up a TM Government.

This is all so depressing. Considering the advances for peace and co-operation that has been achieved, and a great relationship too between Ireland (ROI) and the UK up to now.

Anyway, the Good Friday Agreement is an international Treaty. Will be difficult to unravel that I think unilaterally.

Maursh
Yes, Ireland insisted only two weeks ago that the border was agreed before trade talks - I think making demands covers it.
Wrong.

Ireland's position on the border issue was backed by the rest of the EU in April. The position of the EU hasn't changed since then, and neither has Ireland's. It has been necessary to repeat it because it is obvious that the Westminster government chose to ignore what was very clearly stated back then.
Reference: www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/eu-leaders-set-to-take-tough-stance-in-special-brexit-summit

The conditions that have to be met in order to progress to trade talks, including progress on the border issue, were laid down in June by Michel Barnier, representing the EU including Ireland, and agreed to by David Davis, representing the UK.
Reference: euobserver.com/uk-referendum/138280

The UK can't just cherry pick which international agreements it will abide by and which it will throw overboard when the fancy takes it.
I am not sure which agreement(s) you are referring to. But it is a country's choice whether it puts a border in place, not an agreements, and for what it's worth the UK / Eire have had an open border arrangement in place since 1921 - it is the EU (and Eire) who are trying to renege on this

I am referring to the GFA, predicated on NI being a part of the EU, with all that entails wrt customs, unimpeded travel, and much more, including the role of the ECJ and the ECHR.

Not sure what planet you are living on if you think there was an open border since 1921.
www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F7e34662c-e0bf-11e6-802a-dc53f5401bb9.jpg?crop=2622%2C1475%2C0%2C137&resize=685 Care to read this sign? It dates from 1955.

static.panoramio.com/photos/small/60287146.jpg
Care to guess what this is, and where?

But I think (hope) that those in NI will eventually accept an Irish Sea Border. Can you imagine that! Or accept a Norway type solution.

The problem is the DUP will not accept this.

The DUP aren't the only ones who wouldn't accept this - neither would the loyalist paramilitaries. I fear this situation would be as likely to lead to violence as a hard border between ROI and NI. I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but I certainly don't think it's a magic solution.

Whatever happens, if a hard border is put in place, it will cause issues.

And I really hope that does not involve smuggling, and/or a return to the bad old days.

The UK has no conception of what this might mean to the peace process and what has been achieved up to now.

But I am very hopeful that it will all be solved.

The UK Government needs to wise up and realise that NI is actually a part of the UK, and it is NOT up to Ireland/ROI to solve it for them.

The only reason they realised NI was part of the UK was because TM needed the DUP.

Apologies if this is a really bad blog to link to, but AFAIK the results are correct in that the majority of people in NI are "happy" with an Irish sea border.

The craziest thing about it all is that the referendum was won on such a slender margin, the strongest democratic case is for the softest Brexit possible, remaining in the customs union and single market. And the the border problem, and most of the negotiations problems, goes away.

The slim majority of Brexit isn’t a mandate for the insanely hard Brexit the May government has been forced to pursue due to its weakness/incompetence.

The thing is, that government could collapse at any moment. And IMO the government that replaces it would have to be mad not to say “this has been divisive enough, we are staying in the customs union, everybody needs to compromise”.

Of course, with the way the last few years have gone, perhaps that government would be mad/stupid enough not to do this.

Unfortunately the majority of NI people have never been the problem. It's the minority.

I’m afraid I don’t assume anyone who uses the word “Eire” to be a git, but I do assume you’re too ignorant about the issue to make your opinion worth much.

I’m glad people change when they (finally) become informed better.

Just a quick google gives you the below:

for a comedy take on what did really go on in border areas

On a more academic slant:

www.irishborderlands.com/living/index.html

www.borderroadmemories.com/

crossborder.ie/

until 1965, people driving across the border had to fill in paperwork allowing them to import the vehicle they were driving

AreThereAnyUsersnamesLeft

The car buying thing is still an issue in ROI, that's because they have a Vehicle Registration Tax. VRT.

I could never figure out how that could be legal in ROI. But anyway it seems that it is, and anyone importing a car from UK/EU has to pay VRT unless their car was used by them for a certain period of time before importation.

The irish border is an EU problem, not one for the UK that is JRM's point...
Maursh

I am sure potential trading partners of the UK are taking notes on all these completely irresponsible pronouncements of JRM et al, that are captioned "Reasons to not trust the UK as far as we can throw her".

I think calm heads are so needed here.

I am very saddened by all this. So unnecessary really when you think about it.

Am hopeful though that a mutual agreement will be sorted. It has to be really at the end of the day.

But stranger things have happened too I suppose, being realistic about it. Living in hope though!

There are essentially two ways of doing this.

1. A hard Brexit, the UK moves away from the customs union, no free travel area (except possibly for Irish people, but I'm a bit about that as I think it will actually mean "white Irish people won't get stopped at borders".

1. A soft Brexit, with UK staying in the customs union and single market. But that means sticking with free movement of people.

It really depends on whether Brexit was actually about freedom for Britain to make their own laws etc etc, or whether it was about stopping free travel (immigration). This is a test, really, of all those who try to say that Brexit wasn't about immigration. Watch what happens if May says "for the benefit of everyone we will retain free travel".

The vast majority of Brexiters will go bonkers, because ultimately (and anecdotally - I'm hearing a lot of "we don't need more people here, of course we don't mean you ". I think that's what most people voted for Brexit for - to stop anyone who isn't British from entering the country.

Ironically, most of the immigrants objected to aren't from the EU (or entering via the EU at all). It seems to me (again anecdotally) that the "immigration" most Brexiters are objecting to is non-white immigration from ex-colonies.

But there is no way they will admit that. Britain for the (white) British is long gone, much to the dismay of Farage and his ilk.

What a mess - a hard boarder is unthinkable. I just don't see how it could safely be managed let alone tolerated by the people.

Can you imagine even a "soft porous" amount of boarder posts?

There's your sitting targets right there. A few incidents and there would be calls for them to have at least police and or military protection.

Terrifying prospect. All the years of peace and progress just gone.