What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

That's an interesting way of putting it and really shows how little the UK cares about Ireland, any part of the island

I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say.

As far as I can see any border between NI and I is a bad thing. At the moment there is no need for a border as both countries will be in the EU - this is a good thing. If (as looks likely) the UK is going to crash out then the EU will require I to control it's border.

In a way, the UK has nothing to do.with it - they've created this impossible situation without thinking about the consequences. The UK may not care about controlling it's borders (oh the irony) , but the EU certainly does.

So when the EU puts their foot down, and says that Ireland needs to control the border, what can poor Ireland really do?

Faith, my comment was to your sarcastic "fixed that for you" quote. Don't you think it was a tad smart-arsey?

I agree MaryZ, it was smart-arsey, but I'm fed up of seeing sweeping statements being made about 'brexiters' as if we're all one big blob of stupid & nasty.

I 'fixed' the comment by adding 'some' [brexiters] and 'some remainers', that's all.

Wrt the UK being able to have a hard border at Calais, but not between NI & Ireland - that's because post Brexit the UK can decide for itself what borders it has, and whether they're hard, soft or non-existent. (Wrt goods & people)

If post-Brexit UK doesn't want a border at NI, going to Ireland, it doesn't need to have one - it's up to the EU & Ireland whether they** want a border going the other way though, and there's the sticking point.

Movement of people is not a problem, post-Brexit UK can decide what/how/when/who wrt border control of people coming in - the chances of Ireland & NI becoming the new 'Calais jungle' are probably zero. And the CTA pre-exists EU FoM anyway.

Movement of goods, however, is the sticking point as far as the EU is concerned - my point has always been that the border problem cannot be resolved until a trade deal is being discussed - only then will it become clear if there is indeed any need for a border at all.

Regardless, if the UK doesn't want one, it is not compelled to have one - but the EU may insist that Ireland has one with NI.

I was pointing out that you (and lots of other people, incidentally, I'm not trying to get at you) suggested that Ireland could exit the EU to prevent further violence. I'm suggesting that maybe Britain should consider staying in the EU to prevent further violence. And the onus should be on Britain to prevent potential violence in their own country not in Ireland at all.

Something most British (or at least English) people seem not to understand.

So I'm suggesting you turn it around: "When the EU puts its foot down, what should BRITAIN do?" Ireland, currently (with their allegedly young, naive and ignorant prime minister) are suggesting that British politicians actually come up with an answer to this, rather than just saying "not our problem". It patently is their problem, much as they would like to pass the buck. And until they sort it out, and make a decision as to what THEY are going to do, there is absolutely no point in Ireland or the EU suggesting any solutions at all.

Apologies for saying Eire it is what I was taught in school - I use to write Ireland and have it crossed out

"Movement of people is not a problem" - I disagree with you there, but have no proof either way. Just anecdotal evidence from anyone I know who is pro-Brexit who seem to want to keep everyone out. Cheap labour (most likely very cheap as it will be illegal) from the EU could easily cross a non-border.

My point is that at the moment there is no evidence as to who wants a trade border. The EU has made it clear that staying in the EU customs arrangement means free movement of people. Britain seem to be saying that they want to stay within the free market and the customs union, but have come up with not a single suggestion as to how to do that with no borders.

It's bizarre, really, it's as though some of the spokesmen are pretending Brexit isn't actually going to happen in practice

I'm suggesting that maybe Britain should consider staying in the EU to prevent further violence. And the onus should be on Britain to prevent potential violence in their own country not in Ireland at all

Oh, I see what you mean, FWIW I completely agree with you. I don't have much hope in the UK Government doing the right thing though - Brexit is the ultimate cutting off of their nose,and their complete ineptness in every area that they have shown so far doesn't really inspire confidence. And the UK doesn't really seem to give a shit about NI, so it's NI and Ireland that'll be left picking up the pieces.

Just read this:

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/hard-won-kinship-between-britain-and-ireland-brexit-idiocy

Seems to sum things up depressingly well

Yes, exactly. It's awful really, because the so-called peace in the North is very fragile. Low-level sectarian violence continues, there is still a lot of hatred and even more distrust on both sides. That isn't going to just go away.

British governments have a history of ignoring the issue by saying it's an "Irish" problem, and it seems to me that a large proportion of the population of Britain including their political representatives (most English to be fair) thinks the problems in the North are actually happening in Ireland. They seem to say "let the Irish sort it out" while happily ignoring the fact that the majority of the problem didn't happen, and isn't happening, in Ireland at all.

NI should be a British problem to sort; instead they are pretending it's nothing to do with them .

Wow, that Guardian piece

Basically, Britain haven't come up with a single suggestion on how the NI border is going to work, and not only that they haven't even begun to consider it yet. It's bizarre.

"Ireland is desperate to hear what Britain has in mind. Instead, it has been told not to worry its pretty little head about it, but trust in the reassurances of its betters. It is being placed in the position of a 1950s wife, whose husband is betting the house on a horse race while he tells her, with increasingly irritation, to stop worrying because the nag is sure to romp home."

Exactly.

And in this case the horse that he has bet on is a three-legged donkey ridden by a 20-stone jockey. The whole thing is just an unspeakable mess and I thank the Irish government for finally spelling this out in words of one syllable rather than using the more diplomatic language they have been employing for the past year and a half. Our government doesn't do nuance so please, Mr Varadkar, keep telling it like it is.

I'm a leaver and almost abstained purely because of the NI issue. Still can't get my head round the fact that over 40% of NI voted to leave, yet Brexit is all the English's fault.

I suspect the uk government behind the scenes are desperately trying to come up with a solution - just because nothing yet seems to be keeping everyone happy doesn't mean they're ignoring the issue.

Guardian: "Ireland is desperate to hear what Britain has in mind. Instead, it has been told not to worry its pretty little head about it, but trust in the reassurances of its betters. It is being placed in the position of a 1950s wife, whose husband is betting the house on a horse race while he tells her, with increasingly irritation, to stop worrying because the nag is sure to romp home."

Call that journalism ? Sounds more like commentary. Where are the sources for this piece of emotionally persuasive writing?

Call that journalism ? Sounds more like commentary

It is commentary - that's why it is in the "Comment is free" section of the paper Doesn't mean it's not correct though.

yet Brexit is all the English's fault

The only reason there was a referendum is because there was a spat between English Tories afaik.

Oh and when I say that the UK leaving EU is terrible for Ireland I am accused of gaslighting and asked for sources - but seems that it must be truth if it is published in the guardian

@lalalonglegs
I agree that this is a mess - the UK government is making a dogs breakfast out of the handling of Brexit. That just means if will finish very badly for everyone!

The only reason there was a referendum is because there was a spat between English Tories afaik.

Not quite - it was because UKIP were taking vote share from them over it and some fraction of the conservatives realise this. If the tories don't deliver then watch the vote swing to UKIP

I'd disagree with you there, Twooter. It was an issue (to some) before the referendum and the government had several months between the vote and the triggering of A50 to come up with some solutions - and, iirc, the A50 invocation came after the NI Assembly had already descended into deadlock with the resignation of Martin McGuinness and subsequent elections - perhaps that was the time to put their thinking caps on?

They did not. In fact, TM did the single most inflammatory thing that anyone in her position could have conceived of - she gave the DUP a one-billion pound bung to prop up her government after her own time-wasting, distracting and ultimately futile election.

Since then there has been no movement on NI because there literally can't be given what the government has promised the electorate in Brexit, that they have to appease the DUP and that a border is necessary if the UK exits the CU and SM. I don't believe for a minute that the government are "desperately trying to come up with a solution" - they know that there isn't one and they are simply playing for time. It completely disgusts me that they would jeopardise the economies of any part of the UK and that of a neighbour but to behave the way they have with a country which has NI's history is unconscionable.

I hope you are right, Twooter, but somehow I doubt it.

The Guardian reference to Karen Wheeler, when asked "what are the specific challenges associated with planning for these changes between the UK and southern [sic] Ireland" replying “I am not really able to say. That area is not within the scope that we in the border planning group have been working on. The arrangements on Ireland are still subject to negotiations and ministerial discussion, so that has not come within our scope at this stage. is a tad worrying - after all this time they haven't even referred the major land border (let's not forget Gibraltar either) to the " woman charged with planning for Britain’s post-Brexit borders"

Obviously the Guardian article could be a load of bollocks, but if they are working on a viable plan, I wish they would hurry up and say so.

It seems fairly clear from Liam Fox's recent comments that there are at least some in the UK government who want to hold the Irish border situation (and I would imagine the 'divorce bill') over the EU as a way to gain leverage in the trade talks.

So are you saying that the uk should be trapped in the EU until/unless Ireland leaves?

As an aside, for those who wish to check it out, there is an "Irexit" campaign running. It appears to have limited, but growing support (20% in favour of leaving the EU in 2016 rises to 25% in 2017)

No, I'm saying that the government should have thought this through before triggering A50 and rushing headlong into either a massive climb-down or no deal. Where on earth do you get the impression I think Ireland should leave? This is not Ireland's fault, it is the UK's and we - or rather Brexit-supporters - have to own it.

I think they're going to have to make an exception for the Irish border.

Possible exception would be free trade and free travel for Irish citizens only. Not educated enough to comment further.

The EU has already said that they were happy to have NI as a special case, and they could remain in the customs union while the rest of the UK left. UKGov said no.

I haven't really been following the argument to be honest. I get a gut feeling that whoever is at the top of any remaining paramilitary groups wield a lot of power currently, as frankly I was expecting the mere suggestion of a return to a border to stir up trouble. Perhaps they are keeping their powder dry to see what happens.