What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Cathy, because if I'm Irish and not subjected to any checks, in I go.

Yes, cathy. It's very sad to see so many people have no idea what is going on, and even worse to realise that so many people don't give a shiny shite about their fellow British citizens.

If I was an Ulster Unionist I'd be feeling very isolated and abandoned around about now.

I feel if the border is moved to the Irish sea, there will be unionist protest and probably violence.

If the border is a land border, there will be Republican protest and probably violence. And smuggling. And thugs from both sides making life hell for those in border regions.

because if I'm Irish and not subjected to any checks

How do people know you are Irish to know not to subject you to checks?

Because I say 'Hows it going - let me the fuck through, thanks a million'. They know I ain't Belgian then.

Ye, but if you talk through it in simple terms (I like simple terms), like a poster who wants to bring an English turkey to France to cook, you can then see how it works or doesn't work. Policies have to be my most hated things on earth (for today anyway - it can change at any point).

Whoya.

Yes, in you go alright, YOU will have be able to move back and forth under the CTA as everyone who qualifies has for years.

But minus the Wedding Dress! That would be a tariff matter post Brexit.

I know you realise this and are being slightly provocative or goady or whatever the term du jour is now.

Nope. I'm Irish. So I'll just pretend it's mine ;)

You might get your dress through, but I bet they'd have a closer look if you were driving a forty foot. Or had 17 children with you.

A border is a border; the local border officials might not look too closely at individuals they know are crossing every day, but they are still there. If there is a border, every crossing point will be monitored in some way, otherwise it won't be effective.

And (lest anyone forget) there are probably as many as 275 crossing points on the 300 mile border between Ireland and NI. During the troubles only 20 were open.

Closing all those roads would be expensive at best, and dangerous at worst.

The CTA is in direct conflict with non-Eu travel though.

By the way, once Brexit is completed (if it is), it seems likely that Ireland will join Schengen. We only stayed out to honour the CTA, but ig Britain tearing that up as now seems possible, there is no longer a reason to stay out, that I can see.

One possible solution would be for Britain to allow NI to join Schengen - but again that would (effectively) be putting the hard EU border in the Irish sea (something May and Foster have ruled out).

So then we could suggest that maybe Britain join Schengen (like Switzerland etc) .... but that would mean free travel ... if there was free travel Britain could stay in the customs union ... there could be free movement of people and goods ..... Brexiteers would (once again) go bonkers.

Because we are back to the main reason for most people (it seems) voting for Brexit - they want to keep out immigrants.

So no free travel, no Schengen, back to square one [sigh]

No wonder Barnier always looks a mixture of exasperated and incredulous at those post talks press conferences. It sounds like he knows more about the history of Ireland and the border issues than our government.

Schengen will never be something Ireland will take on.

Would you consider backing your categorical statements with reference to facts? Or at least give reasons.

A quick google (restricted to the last year) gives me dozens of different references to Ireland joining Schengen. Here are just two.

www.independent.ie/life/travel/eoghan-corry-join-schengen-and-all-our-airport-queueing-issues-are-over-35995707.html

www.thejournal.ie/readme/opinion-if-we-chose-to-stick-with-the-uk-we-will-probably-go-backwards-3249166-Feb2017/

These are opinions pieces, but it's being discussed on politics.ie, reddit, boards.ie and loads of political/current affairs sites.

You can't just say "Ireland will never do it" - if England fucks up the CTA and puts up a hard border, of course Ireland will consider Schengen, we will be left with no other choice.

Julie8008 Wed 29-Nov-17 10:04:56

• If you want a deal that involves convergence with the EU, then you can kiss deals with everyone else goodbye
• Why is that? most countries are capable of multi-tasking. Or is it just remainers that can only do one thing at a time?

Because convergence with the EU involves adhering to/conforming to the EU's standards on food safety, animal care standards, banking regulations, tariffs on imports from third countries.

This means that the UK can't import tonnes of American chicken or beef because of the risk that food processors would turn it into processed products and sell it in Europe. The US is not going to agree to a trade deal that only focuses on products that will pass EU scrutiny while refusing access to chlorinated, battery raised chickens or beef raised in industrial farms, and treated with hormones to improve finished product.

The EU will not agree to any trading arrangement with the UK if there is a risk of the UK being used as a backdoor to European markets for products that do not meet its standards, or products that are being dumped - for instance the sale of steel at very low cost (dumped by an economy that has the capacity to absorb a loss on a sale, such as China) and passed on to the European market from the UK at a lower cost than EU steel, with the effect of putting EU steel makers out of business.

The UK will have to choose EU convergence or trade with other countries. There can be no middle ground. The EU will protect itself.

'Multi tasking' is a phrase that has no relevance in the realm of international trade agreements. Agreements involve protection.
'Most countries are capable of multi-tasking' - What does that even mean?

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/18/uk-and-eu-urged-to-act-on-chinese-steel-dumping-after-us-hikes-duty-on-imports
Here is an idea of the problem with steel dumping.

Martina888 Wed 29-Nov-17 19:05:02
An ID check between NI and GB is the answer here.
Remember, this is not a border, it's an ID check
Can be done when you board a plane or boat to leave from or to NI and UK

What you are advocating is the Irish Sea Theoretical Border solution which has already been shot down in flames by the DUP, which can veto any solution it does not want.

Do you understand the power of the DUP here?

Martina888 Wed 29-Nov-17 19:06:45
Mary:
nice how you refer to 17million people as 'gullible sheep

What did the people who put the £350 million NHS lie on the side of the bus think of the intelligence of the British public, I wonder?

The solution must be that you can move freely in England, Ireland, Wales, NI, Scotland and any isles (like a sort of mini Schengen) but to go anywhere else there is a hard border.

Or goods.

berliozwooler that is a rubbish solution as it denies the Republic of Ireland the ability to enjoy all the rights and benefits of EU membership and puts them at a disadvantage compared to other EU nations. Britain even suggesting that is offensive imperialism. Ireland is a sovereign nation which can and shall determine it's own path not be dragged backwards by its neighbour.

The solution must be that you can move freely in England, Ireland, Wales, NI, Scotland and any isles (like a sort of mini Schengen) but to go anywhere else there is a hard border.

Oh FFS! What on earth makes you think that would be an acceptable solution to the people of Ireland?

Let's just rewrite the Act of Union...

My first post on this thread said "I don't think there is a solution if Britain actually goes ahead with Brexit."

After 800 posts,some incredibly uninformed and some very reasoned, sadly I still don't think there is one. So far the only solutions offered have been - Ireland should leave the EU, Ireland should (effectively) rejoin the UK, OR there should be a border in the Irish sea. Alongside lots of "there doesn't need to be a border" and "what harm would a border do anyway".

It shows a breathtaking lack of knowledge - and an even more breathtaking lack of respect for Ireland as a country, and (even worse) the people of Northern Ireland.

There was something on the news last night about them being on course to agree a way ahead for the NI/Ireland conundrum.

Don't know if it has a solid basis though, and I've no links, sorry.

The staggering lack of understanding about Irish/Northern Irish politics over the last 100 years or so is depressing. It’s just not as simple as “oh put a border in” or “oh just do it like this”, it’s extremely complex. There is a lot of pain and sorrow alongside the worry about the impact of Brexit on NI/Ireland, and I’m stunned that so many people are utterly ignorant of such recent history. Unless you’re a 90s baby, you’ll have lived through at least part of The Troubles, seen the devastation caused. It really, really isn’t simple at all.

Sounds like bollocks to me faith

There's no way of everyone getting what they want here. Compromises will have to be made. And I'd prefer it if these compromises were a) not required from countries who did not create this mess (I.e ROI) and b) as unantagonistic to NI as possible.

What that effectively comes down to is the Brits compromising by staying in the SM and CTA.