What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

KenDodd, someone told me that a woman expressly told them the reason they voted for Brexit was because they wanted a border back up with the south. A DUP voter I presume. For a certain minority of voters, their hatred of Catholics and Ireland will always over-rule their self-interest (and the interest of others unfortunate to live in the country with them). These are the people TM is in government with... on the other side, I'm sure some voted to destabilise the country, others would have the same left-wing dislike of the EU as Corbyn.
As usual, it's the moderates in the middle who suffer.

Yes, I think some Unionists voted for Brexit hoping for more of a separation from Ireland; Arlene Foster appeared happy with the outcome. Remember, Northern Ireland had the lowest turnout of voters, with only 2/3rds turning out and of those over 55% voting to remain. So overall, only 28% of the electorate actively voted to leave. I suspect most of those were Unionists.

Genevieva, if you think there is a workable solution, what is it? I haven't seen anyone in Britain suggest a workable solution that stops movement of people, allows Britain to have non-EU trade deals with the rest of the world and has no border between Britain and the EU.

I'm genuinely curious as to whether anyone has suggested one? It's not fair to accuse people of digging their heels in when they haven't been offered a viable alternative.

Also it's worth remembering the point cathy and others made upthread - Ireland has a veto at stage 1 of these talks. If Ireland says is nice and goes along with the British "let's postpone this bit of the talks and go on to the bits we want to talk about", then they won't have a veto down the line.

This is Ireland's only chance of saving the GFA and doing its best to prevent a return to violence.

It's very simplistic to say "Ireland should stop digging its heels in" - why should it? There is a lot at stake.

I don't think anyone but a dwindling number of brexitteers suffering collective narcissism think 'Ireland should stop digging its heels in'.

Most people are just thinking, what a fucking mess.

I don't think that Brexit is entirely the fault of the British people. The EU has done itself no favours on the PR front by insisting on unnecessary uniformity, resulting in the Metric Martyrs etc.

It was no great surprise to me, that the source of so many of those stories about the EU not allowing bendy bananas, was, well, yes, the amusing Telegraph column written by, well, yes, Boris Johnson.

I think we will just have to call the EU's bluff. No border between ROI and NI after we leave and see if the EU want to erect one. They seem to be the only ones insisting on it

It's this kind of stupid thinking that is causing the problems. Ireland is part of the EU. Who do you think the EU is?

The UK wants to leave the EU, how on earth do you think you can do that without sorting out your border with the EU country you share a landmass with?

The ignorance is mindboggling.

The ignorance is mindboggling.

It certainly is! The people in the south don't want a hard border. The people in the north don't want a hard border. The EU don't want a hard border. The UK government don't want a hard border. No one in their right minds wants a hard border. And in any case a hard border across Ireland is almost impossible to achieve, as history shows.

And yet the fucking idiots who stirred up the Brexit fever have created a situation where a hard border seems to be inevitable.

So no one has a viable solution yet. There isn't one really.

But now that the Irish PM (Taoiseach) has survived a snap election today with a resignation of a Minister, it's all back on now for the Summit on 15th December.

I get a feeling and I hope I am wrong, that Ireland will agree to moving negotiations on the Border issue to the Trade Module. I hope they realise that their veto is gone then.

Their backs are up against a wall here. It is just so unfair on them. But we shall see. Irish PM has been steely up to now.

I hope your wrong cathyclown but I doubt it, Leo's leadership has taken a hit today. If he backs down and agrees to delay these negotiations he will totally lose face. It would be the end of the government.

Eenymeeny,

I thought Varadker and Coveney were quite good dealing with this as NOT being their problem really.....so far.

As I said, I hope I am wrong about them caving in to the UK position on this (what exactly is that again?).

But the current Government is now weakened a bit. But hopefully they will just crack on and do their best for Ireland no matter what.

I have niggly doubts though. I never thought I would.

I don't think Ireland can or will cave, especially as they are fully supported by the EU in this (rightly so). The border issue is a massive one that needs to be sorted ASAP.

There is no need for border talks to talk place along with trade talks as.the UK have already made clear they will be leaving the SM and CU so there is no prospect of a "soft" border anyway.

ItsAll,

It is such an unfortunate mess. The UK "forgot" about the GFA and the Border issue. Thankfully the EU insisted on that being sorted in Phase 1 before trade talks. I am glad about that. But I hope EU continues to support Ireland in the face of UK intransigence, ignorance and arrogance about this very sensitive issue. Some of the mutterings coming out are quite frankly appalling from the British side. Not all of them, but it is there.

At this stage, it is either a hard border, UK stays in customs union, or the border is in the Irish Sea.

The Irish Sea border is the most practical really, but unfortunately the DUP will never countenance that.

It is the perfect storm. Interesting times ahead.

But I hope EU continues to support Ireland in the face of UK intransigence, ignorance and arrogance about this very sensitive issue

I'm confident that they will after all, why on earth would they support the UK over Ireland...

ItsAll.

Realpolitik sometimes happens too.

But the main thing is for Ireland to refuse to agree to a move to phase 2 before the border issue in phase 1 is sorted and agreed. I am getting some concerns about this. Hopefully I am just a worrier though.

last night, before I had to sign off, someone mentioned work permits - this is the way to do it

ie. UK leaves EU, Ireland has a common travel area and work area with UK, but non Irish must have work permit to work in GB and NI - that's the idea, any objections?

Martina What about everyhting else - goods etc

flows of goods across to NI can be left alone, the UK need not put on tariffs, can't see the big deal here

BrandNew: I mean ROI

Same would need to apply to all other EU/UK imports and exports surely?

So you agree that NI should be part of the Single Market then. With free movement of goods and services.

Free movement of goods will not happen without free movement of people also.

So if NI effectively remains in the EU, we are back to the Irish sea border, which UKGov / DUP have said absolutely not too.

I always think of Ireland as the rather annoying and misbehaved little sister, who you love, but hangs around and takes over everything. grin
Then gets drunk and makes a show of the EU (the grown-ups).

My jaysus. I suspect you think that Irish people would be charmed rather than grossly insulted by this bizarre characterisation.

I really hope Varadkar doesn't cave on this. He's on a sticky wicket though, as the Department of Justice seems to be a right mess. I used to think the politicians were corrupt or stupid, I'm now wondering whether the entire Dept of Justice is an episode of Yes Minister, and the politicians are consistently lied to.

In relation to Brexit and the border the British government should be saying prayers that Varadkar stays, because a FF government, propped up by SF would be even harder to work with.

"flows of goods across to NI can be left alone, the UK need not put on tariffs, can't see the big deal here" - you mean the trade border at the Irish Sea? Probably the most practical solution, completely ruled out by the British government (probably because of DUP pressure).

A border in the Irish sea is the simplest immediate short term solution. The DUP won't have it. Arlene Foster has Teresa May over a barrel. And I suspect Scotland would object vehemently.

I still think my idea of bringing back Hadrian's Wall would solve it all