is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

Trump now 5 points ahead of Clinton.

www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Their poll summary is interesting:

"Trump now gets 76% of the Republican vote, while Clinton has 72% Democratic support.
13% of Democrats prefer Trump, while 9% of GOP voters favor Clinton.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads "

So despite the warnings that ordinary GOP voters wouldn't vote Trump, their voters seem happier with him than Democratic voters are with Clinton.
Maybe the angry Sanders voters are having a little effect here ? Sanders aims are maimstream UK / EU social democrat, whereas Clinton is neocon, totally different sets of people.

Both the main US parties are neocon, but one is socially liberal and one is very illiberal.
Sanders is reaching a sector of the population that has had no voice until now - and soon won't have a voice again.

Hmm, also Trump leads male voters by 22%, whereas Clinton only leads women by 11%
She leads with voters aged under 40, he leads for age 40+
I gather the Democrats normally do better with women & the young, Republicans with men & the od,er voters, but I wonder if the demographics are more polarised now.

I also wonder if Trump made the calculation that African Americans normally vote so overwhelmingly Democrat, 90% or so, that he hadn't much to lose there, so is trying to maximise the Angry White Man vote.
Hence his outrageous pronouncements about race, I mean. Also about women.

Trump's idea of shocking news may not be the political revelations you might expect:
I never thought I'd see the day when someone becomes a presidential nominee despite talking in public about the size of his genitals and calling his opponents childish names
< old gimmer >

It's like a toddler who keeps gleefully shouting all the naughty words he knows: "willy, fanny, POO to you, look at MEEEE !"

Who knows what he'll shout next.
Time for the Naughty Step, I think.

'Trump's idea of shocking news may not be the political revelations you might expect: '

There is a whole lot to come - Huma Abedin, Muslim Brotherhood, Clinton Foundation, Libya, Syria, Benghazi, emails, Bill Clinton and women etc

Trump will go all the way because he is not part of the Establishment and is not scared of them.

Trump will win lost of African-American votes because he will go into the rustbelt and Michigan and promise to bring jobs and factories back.

Trump is brilliant and not politically correct. He does the exact opposite of what all the wonks and nerds advise. Hillary hit him on women and instead of doing what all the advisers said, he went on the attack and said Hillary is playing the "woman card" and if she wasn't a woman, she would only have 5% support and wouldn't be where she is now.

The Fox pundits and experts said this was crazy, what was Trump doing, this would put women off. But its brilliance is that it has branded Hillary as using the "woman card" and just like Lyin' Ted and "low energy" Jeb this will become ingrained in the public's mind, especially as she is falling into the trap of saying how beastly he is - he says "if I raise my voice to her, she says I am being unfair to her because she is a woman". This will backfire on her and make her look weak and will lead to greater support for Trump among men (which is already shown by his 22% lead among men to her 11% lead among women). So Trump will have the men in the bag, will gain African-American votes due to trade and jobs, but the real brilliane is, he knows he is going to hit her very hard on womwn and her hypocrisy over Bill etc (and it will be very, very hard) and that will lead to Trump peeling off the 11% lead she currently has among women.

Trump has branded her and painted her into a corner. She has fallen for teh trap and asked for special treatement and Trump has ignored the advice of all the experts and gone on the attack. He is gong to win.

Ah, there's this possibility too:
The last time Donald Trump's tax returns went public, he paid $0

No wonder "Trump argues that several years of his returns are being audited by the IRS"
If I was the IRS, I'd want to double check them too.
fortune.com/2016/03/18/trump-taxes/

I think the shock item that Trump has is probably to do with the close relationship with their daughters father in law.

I know it's wilkapedia but Google the name yourself to read some of the commentary.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Mezvinsky

It wouldn't surprise me that he pays no tax. He pays corporate tax and if he has half a brain cell he would show what his companies are paying in tax.

I wouldn't put it past Trump to try to smear Clinton based on her daughter's in-laws, because it would be so utterly ridiculous to blame her - the activities of Chelsea Clinton's father in law aren't her fault, aren't her husband's fault, and clearly aren't her mother's fault.

he would show what his companies are paying in tax.

There's the thing, are they?

And it seems he made use of a loophole not to pay tax and has criticised others for not paying (enough?) tax.

Has he even shown any evidence that his tax returns are being audited?

Interesting article by Dale Winton in Conservative Woman. He is clearly a Fox News fan and likes Krauthammer, who is not a fan of Trump, and who Trump calls a "disaster".

"Dale Winton: Donald Trump – is he hero or villain?
...
One morning I turned on my TV to hear that Donald Trump was going to announce his entrance into the Republican race! All major networks promised to cover the event. So I turned off my mobile, made a pot of coffee and laid out a few snacks to enjoy as I waited to watch this bizarre idea of Trump running for president. Little did I realise that I was about to witness the opening ceremony to the greatest show on earth.
...
Anyway, he announced his candidacy and what followed was unbelievable. It wasn't so much the rhetoric from the liberal Left that astounded me, but the vicious, vile and all out attack from the pro-Republican commentators. When the opinion polls came in after his speech, the world was stunned. Trump was a hit. He knocked it out of the park!
...
No matter the reason, it looked like a lot of high profile talking heads were in complete denial of Trump’s tsunami of support from the hitherto 'silent' majority.
...
The list goes on, but that's not the only reason he's In It To Win It. His attack on political correctness is reason enough, but that's still not it. I'll tell you why. He's fearless and he promises to make his followers safe and prosperous. He loves his country and he'll do his best to protect it from anyone who threatens its constitution.

He's also recognised that the liberal Left and political correctness have bullied us into silence. And there's the rub. You cannot bully Trump and at the same time, he's got your back."

www.conservativewoman.co.uk/dale-winton-donald-trump-is-he-hero-or-villain/

A quote from that article:

"That was 2012 and I've counted the days until the next wave of primaries in the hope that the world would survive by a thread until America voted in a new leader of the free world.
The days and nights were long as horror upon horror was inflicted upon an unexpected world."

Crikey !

As one comment to that article says, the comment maker had no idea that Dale Winton, a quintessential luvvie, would be a real conservative and like someone like Pat Buchanan.

From that article, it is clear that Dale is a regular Fox News viewer.

Well, being a Fox News viewer could explain a lot. Winton never has come over as being overburdened with brain cells.

'Winton never has come over as being overburdened with brain cells.'

I used to think that. But having read that article and seen his level of understanding of US politics and the fact that he likes Krauthammer, who is very intelligent even if he is anti Trump, I have changed my mind. He knows his stuff.

Trust me, claig, your first impression was correct. The simple fact that he agrees with your political views doesn't add a single brain cell.

Trump live now in Bismarck, North Dakota speaking on energy. World "leaders" in Japan meeting huddled around a mobile phone watching live in total trepidation.

Obama said today that "worlds leaders are rattled".

Well that was before they heard Trump give them both barrels.

Says in the first 100 days, he will rescind Obama's Climate Action Plan, will save the coal industry threatened by "Clinton's extremist agenda", will work to approve the Keystone pipeline.

He will stop all US dollar federal payments to all UN climate programmes.

"Political activists with extreme agendas will no longer write the rules"

Trump's priorities are "clean air and clean water".

World "leaders" in Japan shellshocked. Their legs are wobbling and they are having to be helped and steadied by flunkies. Some of them are downing stiff whiskies as if they were water. Pure panic. The end of their schemes, the death of their dreams.

USA! Rock'n'roll. People laughing, "leaders" weeping.

Trump says "we're not going to take it any more".

It's all over, the lies and the bullshit have finally been exposed, all the servants have been outplayed by one man - Donald J Trump.

Guardian HQ watching live, BBC top brass in emergency viewing, all the politically correct cronies crapping it.

Trumps says

"Politicians, all talk no action. They have stolen your votes, they have given you nothing ... I am prepared to kick the special interests out of Washington DC, and I will enjoy doing it ... We're going to put the peoplefirst and it is about time ... Ladies and gentlemen we're going to make America great again"

BBC top brass fainting, top journalists weeping, Guardian HQ silent in sheer shock. Urgent phone calls from politically correct servants wondering about the future of their index-linked pensions.

None of them can understand how their world has been overturned in under 6 months. They never saw it coming, they were riding high and laughing loud at the people they were spinning. Then along came Trump and they ain't a-laughing no more.

Trump is turning America upside down and he has turned their world upside down too.

USA

will save the coal industry threatened by "Clinton's extremist agenda"

Great idea. Coal, the ultimate non-pollutant renewable energy source. I say we should use more of it. What's with people? FGS.

The bullshit has ended. Maybe Trump will call on Jeremy Corbyn's brother, Piers Corbyn, to advise on the climate scams.

Bullshit is also great for the environment. Shame it has ended.

"Donald Trump Says of World Leaders If They’re ‘Rattled,’ ‘That’s a Good Thing’

abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-world-leaders-theyre-rattled-good-thing/story?id=39400633

Trump says everytime Obama has a press conference "he'stalking about me".

The whole world is talking about Trump. Who wants to hear what the world "leaders" in Japan are saying. Trump is the driver of everything that will happen.

News of Trump's energy speech is just beginning to hit the pages of the British press. Editors and journos are trying to digest it, they are not used to "straight talk" from the politically correct metropolitan elite politicians they usually deal with. Trump is off the richter scale to what they have been used to.

As Alex Jones said "we've got an Alex Jones billionaire president" and none of them know what to do. This doesn't compute for them, they didn't teach this at Oxbridge.

"Donald Trump says wind power is ‘killing all the eagles’

The Republican nominee slammed wind power, solar power and he has endorsed the Keystone XL pipeline"

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-says-wind-power-is-killing-all-the-eagles-a7051041.html

They are exaggerating because he said he is for all types of energy, but the government will no longer be picking winners.

'Trump says he would exit global climate accord, slash U.S. oil regulation'

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-energy-idUSKCN0YH2D9

OMG. How much worse can it get for the world "leaders"?

Trump is a barrel of laughs and gives them nothing but woe.

'"We're going to cancel the Paris climate agreement," Trump said at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in Bismark, the capital of North Dakota, the second largest U.S. oil-producing state.'

Do you rmember the kumbaya they were doing with hands held aloft in Paris? Oh dear, oh dear, how soon it all ended.

As Robert Burns said

"The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft agley"

and they're going agley faster than an MP putting an expense claim in for a moat. That's all she wrote.

There's only one old time classic song that does these momentous events justice