is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

"The attack on Hillary Clinton’s husband has no precedent in modern US politics, although Trump has hinted for months that he would be willing to make his attacks against Clinton personal, up to and including her marriage to the former president."

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/18/donald-trump-bill-clinton-rape-accusations-fox-news

"Trump pulls ahead of Clinton in new national poll

So much for the all the pundits and experts who said Donald Trump wouldn't stand a chance in the general election.

Trump would narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton 45-42%, according to a new national poll released by Fox News Wednesday. The three-point lead is within the survey's margin of error.

The poll shows Trump with the edge despite a 14-point deficit among women. Clinton would win among women 50-36%, but Trump would win by a wider, 55-33% margin among men.

Clinton is also behind in the poll despite a whopping 90-7% lead among blacks and a 62-23% lead among Hispanics. Trump makes up the difference thanks to a 55-31% lead among whites, including a 9-point lead among white women."

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/18/trump-pulls-ahead-clinton-new-national-poll/84567376/

Consternation in world capitals, world "leaders" biting their nails, the end of their game is nigh.

so he's not trying to imply that she has done things that are criminal?

I thought crooks were crooked and vice versa people who were crooked are crooks, just as baker's bake and people who sing are singers

How depressing? The only alternative to Trump is that monstrous, bloodthirsty Clinton person?

Or the only alternative to Hilary is Trump?

Does that mean you are pro - Trump?

Hasn't Trump himself been accused of rape by his former wife Ivana?

Is it not terribly depressing that apparently Bill's sexual activities are somehow relevant to his wife's Presidential campaign? Is she to be defined by her husband?

Does that mean you are pro - Trump?

What on earth gave you that idea? Seriously.

Hasn't Trump himself been accused of rape by his former wife Ivana?

It's a weird thing. She said he forced himself on her, then said he didn't.
I wouldn't be surprised if he had.

var I'm honestly surprised by Trumps linguistic skills. He has used words that give an illusion of someone who is educated.

Crook and crooked are two words that are very similiar but mean totally different things. It's an extremely clever use of language that adds water to the seed already put in many voters heads by Clinton herself. It demonstrates that Trump has been able to put a great team together because, let's face it, he didn't just come up with that himself.

There was an incident that Ivana disclosed during their divorce that she later retracted. She has been very supportive of his campaign. For a divorced couple they are far more civil towards each other in public than my parents have been!

There have been numerous complaints made by employees against Bill clinton regarding sexual harassment and rape. His track record is appalling and if I were HC he would be my exH. Look up Paula Jones. She was treated appallingly IMO.

'I'm honestly surprised by Trumps linguistic skills.'

Absolutely. Pure genius - Lyin' Ted etc.

' It demonstrates that Trump has been able to put a great team together because, let's face it, he didn't just come up with that himself.'

No, it's all Trump. He has a natural ability to sell and tune into what people think. He has read the people when the entire political class failed to do so.

'Is it not terribly depressing that apparently Bill's sexual activities are somehow relevant to his wife's Presidential campaign?'

This is what Trump says

"With sustained force, he is using Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct with women to attack Hillary Clinton as his “enabler”. At a rally in Oregon on Friday night, Trump accused Hillary Clinton of trying to “destroy the lives” of her husband’s accusers. “She was an unbelievably nasty, mean enabler, and what she did to a lot of those women is disgraceful,” he thundered, offering no evidence. He repeated the same charges the next day in Washington state."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/hillary-clinton-enabler-bill-donald-trump-presidential-campaign

charming

what a nasty nasty campaign this is

I'm constantly bemused that anyone with half a brain thinks making up childish insults like "Lyin' Ted" is in any way clever. Should Trump become President he will no doubt think that, when the inevitable happens and the country is at war, the killer tactic will be calling the enemy leader "Smelly Assad" or "Poo pants Putin".

The best exmple of Trump's linguistic skill and psychological understanding was "low energy" as applid to Jeb Bush. Pure genius.

Trump is very clever. He speaks to tens of thousands of people without a teleprompter for over an hour (unlike anything any other "politician" could do) and he keeps the crowd enthused an dcheering throughout and during that time he tries out all of his ideas and sees which ones appeal to the people. He is constantly looking for feedback so that he can use the best lines against his Establishment opponents whose lines are all written for them by some teenager straight out of college.

It took Trump a while to come up with the devastating "Crooked Hillary" which has had the Clintom campaign, Bubba and the world "leaders" in tatters. He started off with "incompetent Hillary" but the crowd didn't lap that one up, and finally he hit gold dust with "crooked" and the crowd went nuts. The rest is history.

'charming

what a nasty nasty campaign this is'

It hasn't even started yet. This is going to be the most nasty camapign in US history since the early 1800s. Trump is going to reveal so many truths that will shock the world and the people. It will be like nothing we have ever seen.

Remember, Trump is not Establishment, he is not politically correct. They ar begging him not to gp there and like Samson pull the Establishment down. But Trump is the outsider who will end their entire game and make America great again.

Trump is the king of branding, the master salesman. The use of nicknames brands his opponents and chimes with the negatives the public already subsconsiously feel.

“Here’s Why Donald Trump Will Win the GOP Republican Primary,” Baillieul wrote, “How can a baboon like Trump compete against political chess players like Bush and Clinton? Because Trump is playing three-dimensional chess. Or at least, he’s flipped the table, declared himself the winner, and started throwing pieces at his opponents. Either way, it’s effective.”

That is why people write lyrics to Trump songs such as

"Establishment is terrified, they can't control his reign
"Let's meet this year, on the Trump train"

It's all over bar the weeping of world "leaders" and Trump gave them fair warning that he has "a long memory".

It's not nasty because he speaks the TRUTH claig.

'It's not nasty because he speaks the TRUTH claig'

It is the truth but it is very nasty and dirty which is why the people will be shocked that the media was complicit in covering it all up and protecting the Establishment and its puppets.

It will all come out as Trump tells the people what has been going on. As Roger Stone said, Trump "can't be bullied, he can't be bought".

They are begging him not to, Fox has Karl Rove, George W Bush's right hand man, advising Trump not to go there. The Fox host agrees that Trump should not do it, just as they all said Trump should not say that George W Bush knew there were no weapons of mass destruction.

But Trump is not Establishment and as Roger Stone said "Trump is the toughest son of a gun I have ever met, tougher than Nixon".

The popular vote may occasionally not give the same result as the Electoral College (remember Al Gore)
A president needs to get at least 270 of the 534 electoral votes.
(Since there are minor parties like the Greens, it would be possible that noone reaches 270 votes, in which case the House of Resentatives would vote to choose the President)

Repiblicans are thought to be at a disadvantage in the Electoral College, due to their voter distribution across the various states.
So, Trump's path to 270 votes is not clear - or maybe Claig has researched possible routes ?

Yes, the popular vote doesn't matter and the Democrats start at an advantage. It all comes down to about 7 states.

If Trump wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania it is probably all over. Trump will win West Virginia after Hillary's arrogant gaffes about climate change and putting coal miners out of business, he will also win other states in the rust belt because of his trade policies and promise to bring jobs back which go against the globalisation and globalism that Hillary and the Establishment insist on and which she is not allowed to match by Wall Street.

Trump will atack Hillary from the left on trade and war and globalisation. She won't talk to Kim Jong-un etc.

Hillary has also been pushed left by Bernie but she will veer back to the centre as soon as she can get rid of Bernie, but then Bernie's supporters won't back her and many will back Trump's more left wing anti-globalisation anti TPP trade policies etc

Hillary is Establishment and Trump isn't and that will spell her demise as the Bernie and Trump voters have both had enough of the Establishment and media stitch-ups which have led to decline.

"Ann Coulter: Trump Could "Crush" Electoral College With Only A Slight Increase In The White Vote In Several Key States
...
"I've been right from the beginning. Try to find me on TV. I'm what's known as a Trump supporter. Banned."
...
Where [Trump] needs to win is the industrial midwest, some of the purple states on the coast, and contrary to what the media has been telling us -- Thanks to this guy Stuart Stevens who lost a winnable campaign in 2012, they have this idea there are no more white votes to be had.

Romney lost the white vote. Or nearly lost the white vote in ten major purple states.

Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, N.H., Maine, Illinois, Colorado, have I named ten yet?

[Editor's note: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?]

If Trump can slightly increase the white vote in these big industrial states in the midwest.

And by the way, Maine went for Ross Perot, I think Trump will be popular there.

All he needs is a handful of states.

Oh! And Florida! Not only did Trump win Florida, which I haven't even considered, I'm just looking at how Trump could possibly crush the electoral college by slightly increasing the white vote in certain states.

Stuart Stevens doesn't seem to understand that we have the electoral college. It doesn't matter, it is great that Romney got 88% of the white vote in Mississippi, that didn't help Massachusetts where he got 40%."

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/01/ann_coulter_trump_could_crush_the_electoral_college_by_slightly_increasing_the_white_vote_in_the_industrial_midwest.html

Trump is likely to win several states because Clinton is far less popular among black voters than Obama.

These being:
Florida (29 votes)
Ohio (18 votes)
Virginia (13 votes)

It also benefits Trump significantly in Pennslyvania (20), which would put him over the winning line with the aforementioned states.

Clinton is fairly obviously going to lose - she is struggling to beat ONE opponent, so she stands little chance Trump who vanquished sixteen.

Trump is going to reveal so many truths that will shock the world and the people

No, he isn't.

I'm eagerly awaiting.

He hardly knows what's going on in any aspect of politics that I'll be surprised if he knows any secrets at all.