Turkey has shot down a Russian jet

[Pantone363]

Apparently it violated their air space and ignored repeated warnings.

The really important meeting will be when Hollande meets Putin on Thursday. What Hollande says after the meeting will be very important and will give an indication of what France is thinking about it.

Just seen a statement from NATO on Aljazeera that the Russian plane was in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. Nothing on their website yet to corroborate that. Also from Putin that it was 4km inside Syria when shot down.

"Part of Hollande’s problem is the Americans’ refusal to cooperate militarily with the Russians, whose entry into the Syrian war last month they deplored.
...
The signs of deepening collaboration between France, which as Obama noted, is Washington’s oldest ally, and Russia – Iran also, by extension – are deeply disconcerting for the US. Significantly, Hollande has not so far called for Nato’s help. France, historically, has always been ambivalent about the US-led alliance, but the omission is striking. Putin may exploit this faultline, too.

All of which may leave Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, who travels to Paris on Wednesday, feeling anxious."

www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/23/francois-hollande-france-global-alliance-defeat-isis-russia-us-uk-germany

It looks like Merkel will meet Hollande today. Merkel is very important in this. What she says will be significant.

I think that the UK and USA and other nato countries are probably right now wishing Turkey wasn't in NATO. Then they'd be able to wash their hands of the whole thing and keep their distance.

Instead they're now having to play lip service to supporting their NATO ally that it was a justified thing to do. And while technically shooting down a plane which is in your airspace and has been warned may well be justifiable it's not exactly sensible is it.

UK airspace is occassionally entered by Russian Bears, the typhoons are scrambled to escort them out. I dint see the typhoons shooting them down. Apparantly there's been a Russian Sub poking about off Scotland for the last ten day. The Navy are currently trying to find it but again I don't think they'll blow it out the water if they find it. Though it's probably hot footing it to the Med now.

DH and I have just been discussing this and agreed that, whichever way you look at it, all the tentacles lead back to the Saudi/Qatari Royal family and American politicians. I think that these are the 'elites' that Claig is talking about. They are the only people with enough money to cause this level of destabilisation. It's all done through 'Foundations' and 'Charity' (look at the Clintons), which is what Blair is trying to do with his 'Foundation'.

Intersting analysis by a Turkish journalis who contributes to Forbes magazine

"Erdoğan shoots down Putin

Turkey’s dangerous brinkmanship with Russia.

What was Erdoğan thinking? One has to assume that the deliberate downing of a Russian bomber by Turkish fighter jets was no accident, that it was ordered from the top. Otherwise, we would have heard very audible diplomatic apologies from the Turkish side to the Kremlin. Nor would Putin have openly called it a “stab in the back.”

This little knot of what-didn’t-happen is revealing in itself. Presumably the Turks could have pretended the whole thing was an accident while assuming that Putin got the message. Instead Ankara chose to make Monday’s incident a public rebuke and humiliation for the Kremlin, a palpable act of hostility between nations and, indeed, between power blocs, for Erdoğan quickly called a meeting with NATO brass. So what were his calculations?
...
So Erdoğan has chosen to test the West’s allegiance by the kind of brinkmanship that he has seen Moscow exploit repeatedly. He has demanded from his allies an answer to an ultimately divisive question, one that threatens to reorder the world’s alignments for the next 100 or so years"

www.politico.eu/article/erdogan-shoots-down-putin/

Have a read of this...not about Turkey and Russia, but about IS and petrodollar funding www.madamasr.com/opinion/europe-and-islamic-state-within

Turkey could have blamed it on the Syrians if they'd wanted to. Either the rebels or ISIS.

"while technically shooting down a plane which is in your airspace and has been warned may well be justifiable it's not exactly sensible is it."

When Russia started its military operations on Turkish border, Turkey sent an official note to Russia saying that it would follow the rules of engagement if its borders are violated. That is what happened yesterday - rules of engagement were followed and the plane was shot down after 10 warning messages in 5 minutes.

What would not be a sensible thing to do under the circumstances would be to show lack of resolve by not carrying out what any country would do when a war plane repeatedly enters its air space.

'So Erdoğan has chosen to test the West’s allegiance by the kind of brinkmanship that he has seen Moscow exploit repeatedly'

I think this analysis is wrong as it seems to imply that Erdogan is reckless and has gambled on this. On the contrary, I think it must have been planned and approved way above his head and I think he must have been given assurances that he will be supported if Putin reacts or Erdogan would not have risked it. If that is the case, then it probably means that there will be more brinkmanship against Russia as part of a strategy which is why it is dangerous for the world.

What is noticeable is that there have been no real apologies or diplomatic covering up of the incident. It seems that lots of players are not particularly bovvered and Putin has openly said that he thinks he has been "stabbed in the back by accomplices of the terrorists" which is as undiplomatic as it gets.

I suppose so Cote. I guess Turkey are thinking of the longer implications about what if they keep allowing Russia to take the piss. But then the implications of what they've now done could be awful. Hopefully Russia will deep down accept they were wrong and stop flying over Turkey and not retaliate. Who knows?

cote I would normally agree with that point.

No one has any business being in anyone's airspace. And Russia are wrong to flout this.

But in this location, and in this situation, Turkey could have behaved differently, physically escorted the plane away and then used the force of NATO to condemn Russia in public ( this forcing France to align with Turkey not Russia too).

Instead, they have brought about an extraordinary set if events that will not serve them or the region in the short or long run.

"all the tentacles lead back to the Saudi/Qatari Royal family and American politicians. I think that these are the 'elites' that Claig is talking about."

Claig is a self-confessed conspiracy theorist, UKIP fan, Daily Mail reader, and supporter of Donald Trump for US President who always talks about "the elite" without a clue about who they might be or what they might be doing. According to claig, "the elite" brought down the towers on 9/11, orchestrated the climate change debacle (which claig denies exists), and are behind every single problem in the world, economic or socio-political.

I despair to see his posts taken seriously on here.

"Turkey could have behaved differently, physically escorted the plane away"

That would have been a possibility if the plane answered their warnings.

'and are behind every single problem in the world, economic or socio-political'

No I think the bankers caused a lot of problems.

I agree.
And I think we need to see what the timings were. If 17 seconds proves correct that is a very quick shoot down.

It reminds me of the General Belgrano sinking. Technically that warship was skirting the exclusion zone that the UK had declared around its Falklands taskforce. The warship was sunk because the British realised that on its existing course it was going to intercept the convoy.

Something similar happened with the Russian jet. It threatened Turkish interests and so was shot down with the fact it momentarily crossed the border being used as justification.

I regret to say similar actions could take place between Chinese and US backed forces in the Pacific over the Spratley Islands. Its all part of the gears of war beginning to turn.

Oh and Gazrom just halted Ukrainian gas supplies. Turkish gas supplies next?

"Hopefully Russia will deep down accept they were wrong and stop flying over Turkey and not retaliate. Who knows?"

They won't declare war on Turkey, if that's what you are asking.

It's one thing to bomb some bandits from the air, and another thing entirely to declare war to NATO's second largest military power after the US.

Daily Mail article. The Daily Mail do tend to ramp up war talk in my opinion, so I am not sure how seriously to take it

"One of Moscow's most respected military analysts said war was 'most likely'. Pavel Felgenhauer said Turkey was seeking to protect an area in northern Syria controlled by its allies, the Turkmen.

The analyst said Mr Putin must either accept this zone 'or start a war with Turkey' which it could win only by going nuclear."

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3332790/Monstrous-new-crisis-Russia-s-downed-jet-Putin-s-fury-stab-terror-accomplices-Moscow-analyst-warns-war-likely-Moscow-analyst.html

I don't think that Putin will be deterred from helping the Syrian Army retaking that region. My guess is he will step it up and see what Turkey does next.

Is it chess or snakes and ladders?

Good question, suzannecaravaggio

It is like snakes and ladders, up and down

CoteDAzure's posts make rather more sense to me than Claig's to be honest.

It's not like this was the first Putin's mucked about in Turkish airspace prior to yesterday....he's been given clear warnings and told of the consequences to expect on many occassions.

Parenting 1-0-1: follow through on any threats you make else don't expect your boundaries to be respected.

Also, there is an English Twitter account for CNN Turkey which is probs a more reliable source of info than Today's Zaman or Daily Mail if anyone is interested in Erdogan's public standpoint.

Thoas McInerney, retired Air Force General said on Fox News that the shoot down had to be pre-planned and that NORAD would not have acted like this in the States under their rules of engagement. He said it was "an overly aggressive manoeuvre" and that the Russian plane was not over Turkish territory long enough.

Someone suggested turning on Fox during the Paris events, it was sensational, not sure if worth clicking that link.

Of course you would be watching Fox News. Where else would a Daily Mail reader, UKIP voter, Donald Trump supporter, and a conspiracy theorist get his news?