Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

[claig]

Panic in elite circles

the decline if the Tory party article was interesting especially as it was written pre the European elections. If they thought games we bad then for the Tory party...... Interestingly it said the Tories had lost 44,000 members sin e 2020' which is roughly the number that Ukip has gained

UKIP has a habit if running candidates that make me go WTF. I thought Helmers choice as the by election candidate was odd. Also putting a policeman up in a area that's had poor policing in the past. But I also thought that a Rev would not get in either so that was surprising.

Lol at the Labs asking if this is did end of the Tories. I suggest they take a good hard look at themselves. They may soon. E extinct in Scotland. If you want socialism vote Ed, if you want figment domestic management vote Nigel. The Tories will still be there but are becoming increasingly irrelevant. We dint want social democrats and the Tories are neither socially aware nor democratic.

'UKIP has a habit of running candidates that make me go WTF. I thought Helmers choice as the by election candidate was odd.'

I agree, I wasn't keen on Helmers either. Agree about the policeman, bad descision. I thought the same about the Reverend, but it turned out he had been deputy to Blunkett for a number of years on the council a long time ago.

I think UKIP are still short of good candidates, but this will change over time as they become more popular and more people want to join them and stand.

Good one Claig ..... with £1.4 tril of UK national debt that can only be paid off by a combination of economic growth, spending cuts, and tax RISES, now really isn't the time for a bunch of UKIP sub standards in 2015 to 'learn on the job'.

WetAugust & Claig …… soooooo many words about how many members there are in UKIP, how Conservative Members are falling, how it is the end of the Conservative Party; when in the real world, their policies in 2010 (many including the IMF disagreed with) has saved the UK from an economic fate worse than Europe – so may I suggest that you begin clicking on this map and compare your purple patch, with the BLUE areas.
BBC 2010 General Election Map/Stats.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

But as it appears British political success to the electorate is no longer judged on a political party’s record in government, but on false party promises of some magic alternative to all the countries problems, from a far right nationalist bunch of folk, UKIP clearly have momentum that mean they will poll over 3% of the popular vote

So in 2015, as UKIP only need around 5% of the votes to ensure the Conservatives LOSE the next election; as the largest party (therefore unable to arrange an EU Referendum), or be able to form a workable minority government in parliament, as the Labour led socialist block made up of several parties will always be able to out vote them.

So in 2015 from Day 1, Westminster will be democratically unwieldy (lame duck), as thanks to UKIP, due to dodgy electorate boundaries in their favour and the ‘first past the post’ system - Labour will form the next government with a loose coalition of pro EU, pro higher taxes, anti business growth, socialist parties - including the Lib Dems and Scottish Nationalists.

Therefore from 2015, our social & economic future will unravel, getting worse year after year up to 2020, as businesses who might have been concerned of leaving the EU under the Conservatives, are now more worried about the socialist/political uncertainty here including the costs of UK devolution (in a very uncertain economy world).*

So businesses stop investing/hiring in the UK, and consider contracting and/or relocating to a similar high tax Europe – as if the UK is staying in the EU for the foreseeable future and the UK’s tax advantages are reversed, why be here?*

Therefore the capital markets funding our £100 billion annual deficit/overspend and accumulating National Debt, will demand a bigger ‘risk’ premium for buying our government bonds, our banks in a failing UK economy will have to pay more in the interbank money market funds – so interest rates here will rise further than Europes, resulting in higher interest rate charges to every household om funding our national debt and higher borrowing costs to consumers.

UKIP Risk Conclusion; in 2020, similar to now, when many of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 for ‘a new type of politics’ and ‘change’ (on a whim after a few live leadership debates) now regret it, UKIP will feel the electoral backlash, as 2015 would have been judged as a ‘make or break’ General Election for the UK’s EU, economic, and devolution choices – thanks to UKIP allowing back Labour, the wrong choices would have been made, and FOR WHAT?

A 'peoples party' can never have lied for 20-years to those same people what THEY could do (with even up to 24 highly paid MEPs) in leaving the EU and controlling immigration.

A 'peoples party' have to have General Election domestic policies they stand by for longer than a few years, and have the quality within to ever implement them, without the need to poach ‘the elite’ sitting MPs they wish to replace.

A ‘peoples party’ therefore will use ‘The Peoples Party’ slogan to deceive further, when the messages they send to ‘change’ the lives that vote for them, are no more effective than the votes for a British BNP or French Front National.

A ‘peoples army’ using UKIP’s Westminster MPs to concentrate on MP Recall that could replace sitting MPs doing the right thing for ‘the people’ (using social media like Facebook), with UKIP Westminster MPs (who couldn’t do it in General Elections) - more interested in UKIP Westminster power for THEMSELVES - than offering real ‘change’ policies and supporting Cameron’s 2017 EU Referendum.

A ‘peoples army’ that concentrates on, and judges it’s OWN success by, their numbers of Party Members, cult like propaganda on Facebook, Twitter and god know what else, BUT will have to ANSWER TO ‘THOSE PEOPLE’ who voted for them and let back into power an incompetent Labour government, that during 13-years left so much economic/financial/social ‘baggage’, the repercussions of which would be felt for decades WITHOUT yet another term.

So a ‘peoples army’, voting for UKIP, for the benefit of UKIP, offering nothing but pain for ALL THE PEOPLE later, not just the ones that voted for UKIP, will go down in UK history as both the biggest political scam and ‘own goal’ disaster on the British people - by UKIP and those people that voted for them - and we’ll all be paying for it for many years to come.

yep. You think Labour will get in. I think Dave will probably be the senior partner in a coalition

if it's Labour then your scenario may come true. But it will be worth it as it will mean the end if Labour

There is nothing go vote Tory fir.

even John Nott and Simon Heffer are saying Dave's on the wrong track. we need a referendum now, not in 2017

It takes 2 to negotiate and Merkel has said no to negotiations.

End if.. Out now please

Isitmebut

You get far too bogged down in detail. You'd make a good technocrat if you ever wanted a no I in Brussels. M

A leader is only effective if they have vision. Nigel has a vision of the UK out of Europe. Dave gas a vision of staying I. Power - but what he actually foes when he's in power hasn't occurred to him yet.

I am struggling to think of half a dozen things this Govt has done for us and after an increase in invoke tax thresholds and gay marriage I can't think of anything else. Not much it say for. 5 years in Govt

is this what you want?

nhaspace.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/ukips-nhs-privatisation-agenda/

Lies Julia, just lies

UKIP is against NHS pro isation. Unlike L about who used PPP and PFI and unlike the Tories who are just about to sign up to TTIP.

And the person who wants to charge you for some NHS services is the Labour appointed Lord Winston.

Re the NHS …. In 2015 either the Labour Party of Conservatives will be forming the next government, not UKIP who wanted to cut the Public Sector by a few million in 2010, or the Greens and whatever they have said in the past or the future – so what they promise is irrelevant.

The Conservatives in 2010 promised to at least ring fence NHS spending, Labour would not, and as the MAIN pressure has been several million more users over the past several years e.g 90 million more GP appointment requests, with A&E spill over – together with increased demand from the elderly, the obese and the drunks – it is just as well in 2010 the Conservatives did get in.

Cutting 20,000 NHS managers, hiring several thousand more doctors and nurses since can only go so far under that demand – and the problem for any government in 2015, is that they can’t train more doctors and nurses quick enough.

In the likes Greece, Portugal and Spain, because of their weak economy/finances, they have had to cut up to 17% off their annual Health budgets, so AGAIN, thank god Labour did not get re elected in 2010 to follow French style policies, which have been a disaster,

The NHS Private Sector usage, I believe went up to around 5% of the annual budget, under Labour, and has not risen under the Conservative Coalition from 2010.

On TTIP, could someone please explain EXACTLY, how TTIP contracts requesting protections from bad government decisions i.e. NHS IT system, differ from before, and how that will increase the 5% private sector NHS spending level significantly?

From 2015, only a strong UK economy can guarantee that with a £100 billion annual budget deficit/overspend, CURRENT NHS SPENDING IS NOT ONLY ASSURED, but can be increased to meet all the new demands.

WetAugust …. I get bogged down in detail do I, well we know you can’t as UKIP have NOTHING to offer the UK but economic ruin from 2015, and I’ve explained why – so I can understand why UKIP don’t like people thinking too much. lol

Ukip blames London election performance on difficulty appealing to the 'well-educated'
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-blames-london-election-performance-on-difficulty-appealing-to-the-educated-and-cultural-9423200.html

UKIP/Farage can not have a ‘vision’ for the the UK, other than deluded ones of what Farage wants, not the UK needs, as he clearly now believes his own lies that UKIP can bring the Uk out of the EU - and has PROVED in 2010 his ‘visions’ are on the blink, by rubbishing his own General Election manifesto, AFTER he got those votes.

_Re the Conservative/coalition record, if you can’t yet work out that UKIP/Farage offers nothing, but will ruin everything that has been achieved since 2010, don’t worry about it dear, ‘you won’t be able to handle the truth’. lol

WetAugust..Part Deux.

Re your WE REALLY NEED A REFERENDUM NOW, continuing to perpetuate the UKIP lies-for-vote on the EU and our options AWAY from an EU Referendum – seriously, the blind following of the UKIP cult aside, do you have learning difficulties or just like to misinform - as I’ve gone over this several times and when I ask you to confirm you understand, you go ‘missing’.

So I’ll have another go, and if you can’t follow the facts, I’ll repeat them for you for as many times as it takes.
The Conservatives thanks to UKIP in 2010, does NOT have a majority in parliament to get through parliament an EU Referendum (never mind leave the EU) as both Labour and the Lib Dems in either the Commons or Lords have stopped it.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html

“Analysis of results shows that in at least 21 key marginal seats, Ukip’s share of the vote proved enough to allow Labour or the Lib Dems to see off strong Tory challenges.”

Re the end of Labour, both you and Claig really do need to get your heads around the ‘first past the post’ electoral system, as you wouldn’t have to display so many dumb opinions on the subject over so many posts. First of all, in 2010 I’m sure I’ve read that UKIP stopped the Conservatives getting a majority by just a cumulative 26,000 repeat 26,000 votes, across those key marginal seats mentioned above.

So UKIP in any constituency could get as little as a few thousand votes, or tens of thousands, not get a Westminster seat – but ddecisively change the Conservative or Labour result – and as UKIP are said to take two (maybethree) Conservative votes for every one Labour, Labour will not lose as many seats as the Conservatives.

In 2010, UKIP got around 3% of the vote but no seats, the Lib Dems got 23% of the votes and won 57 seats, while Labour had 29% of the vote and won 258 seats.- so HOW many votes is not key, it is mainly where they are and how it shifts the balance.

And as in 2015 the Scottish National Party, will pick up all of Labours Scottish seats in Westminster, the SNP will be the 3rd largest party in Westminster, who will have nothing to do with the Conservatives heavily weakened in Westminster by UKIP – so as I’ve mentioned for weeks now, Scotland (thanks to UKIP voters) will screw England over.

“Salmond Rules Out U.K. Coalition With Tories After 2015”
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-02/salmond-rules-out-u-k-coalition-with-tories-after-2015.html

“I certainly think that there’s no chance whatsoever of the SNP ever going into coalition with the Conservative Party, given their attitude towards Scotland,” Salmond told BBC Television’s “Andrew Marr Show” in an interview broadcast today. While refusing to exclude a coalition with Labour entirely, he said that “it’s unlikely the SNP would see itself in a Westminster coalition.”

”Salmond said SNP lawmakers would be more likely to wring policy concessions from the two main parties by offering support to a minority government on specific issues. “There would be greater tractions in negotiating support on a case-by-case basis,” he told the BBC.”

As I predicted, without a the 2015 Conservative majority, Westminster will be a lame duck parliament, and thanks to UKIP we will both stay in the EU and England will get screwed on Scotland.

'As I predicted, without a the 2015 Conservative majority, Westminster will be a lame duck parliament, and thanks to UKIP we will both stay in the EU and England will get screwed on Scotland.'

But this is the short-term. UKIP and its rise will be the catalyst that changes our FPTP system and brings in PR. Our old 2 party system is now history. A lame duck parliament will probably require an early election and then it's over and UKIP will be in a very strong position.

Claig .. once again, BY LAW WE HAVE 5-YEAR FIXED PARLIAMENTS, look again at my post further up (1 November 23:33:15) on just some of the dire UK consequencies of such split parliament that will crash our economy by 2020 - but for what, as I can understand that a two main party system may NOT be perfect - but there is a distinct policy/record different between those two main parties and UKIP offers voters NOTHING of substance, only magic dust promises.

Whoever gets elected in 2015 on Day 1 does not CHANGE the enormity of the problems and challenges the UK faces for the next 5-years - just how those problems are handled, by a minority Conservative, or more likely thanks to UKIP, Labour government.

Farage just has complaints, no new or innovative answers, and a Westminster parliament where the socialist pro EU, anti business block vote of Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems would stifle everything the Conservatives and UKIP (well, if your conference has any bearing on your 2015 manifesto) parties stand for - and take us in the EU flat growth, double our unemployment direction.

well Merkel has certainly thrown petrol onto the fire.

Dave has absolutely no bargaining position left. Things are coming to a head.

What's C Amerindian going to do between now and the GE because he cannot keep repeating his negoiato then referendum drivel. no one believes him.

Some of the stuff on the web tonight calls him spineless, weak, no backbone, discredited....... These are serious complaints.

Once the Germans start dictating who can live in the UK then the ordinary man in the street wakes up - especially in these centenary years.

It's getting very interesting indeed.

Isitmebut

Let me give you a lesson on the unwritten British constitution.

A government cannot bind successive governments.

Just as the 5 year electoral term was legislated for in this Parliament it could,with sufficient votes, be overturned in the next. It us not set in stone.

I cannot imagine any future Government actually wanting reduce the term but hey oh your Illustrious leader Dave obviously thought it s a good idea at the time. What a dick head that man has turned out to be.

WetAugust ... you are priceless in the need to perpetuate UKIP lies.

So having said the same thing NUMEROUS times, do you NOW understand how stupid it is to say that the Conservatives/Cameron minority government CAN bring us out of the EU this parliament. YES or NO????

*Re the next 2015 5-year (or not) government, as you say why would an unwieldy loose socialist alliance, with their high tax, bad spending agendas, WANT to change a law to allow back in the Conservatives they hate to a person - when they always think that they are right, right up to economic destruction??

Re why would Cameron inheriting a UK mess, being forced into a coalition by UKIP, but confident of a long term economic plan the IMF/Labour said was wrong, NOT WANT to take on that responsibility for 5-years when Labour (or UKIP) didn't have a plan and statesman/hero Farage was busy down the pub and pretending he could bring us out of the EU?

Not that I'd expect you to follow the real world, getting cranky for a General Election now in case UKIP is rumbled before next May, but how can Cameron be wrong insisting on 5-years in 2010, when so much has been achieved that could have been in a Lib Dem coalition - when every month that goes by until next May we economically outperform a further sinking Europe, and Labour is likely to then form the 2015 government and unwind the good?

Reforms take time to work and FYO was the economic/jobs recovery better in late 2014, or 2013, look it up and don't feel too sheepish.

Re Germany, the only way out is an EU REferendum via the Conservatives; maybe more Ukippers will now wake up to that facts, as UKIP can't, Labour/Lib Dems/SNP won't.

what you totally fail go understand Isitmebut is that the Tories have alienated and ridiculed Ukippers to the point that they would NEVER vote Tory again.

Your problem of your creation.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/02/ukip-assault-on-nhs-extinction

more lies, Wet?

WetAugust … what I totally understand is those at the financing/leader/MEP/MP wannabe top of UKIP, are perpetuating an EU myth that they can somehow get around British Law and bring us out – and they no doubt can’t believe how far they have come to getting Westminsyer power with that lie – while all getting nice taxpayer funded salaries and expenses along the way.

For the majority of UKIP VOTERS on the other hand, far from having the vested interest of those earning a living, or desperately needing to believe in a ‘Cult UKIP’ that rings little bells and promises that their quick fix magic dust will painlessly solve all the UK’s ills – having registered their protests until now, will now begin to realise that with no quick UKIP fixes, the UK will have to face the ongoing problems we have from 2015, with either the Labour or Conservative Party forming the next government – and their votes will certainly make sure it is the former.

UKIP as is now, was the creation of the EU, immigration, economic and housing policies of the incompetent 1997-2010 Labour administration, not the Conservative Party now trying to sort out Labour’s abysmal legacy – and all UKIP voters should understand that, even the early transfers over from the BNP who’s UKIP vote would allow Labour to carry on where they left off,

Re any political inter party name calling, hardly confined to Conservatives frustrated at what a vote for UKIP in 2015 (as in 2010) could mean for our economic/social future, I’d suggest the ‘sticks and stones may break my bones’ approach to life might help prior to May 2015 - as if Labour form the 2015 socialist government coalition everything else that will be thrown at you by them, WILL ‘hurt you’.

Yes, more lies Julia. there's nothing in that article that is stated Ukip policy It's just the views of a consultant who THINKS this or that will happen.

So basically groundless scare-mongering, which is typical behaviour for the Guardian.

I have heard Paul Nuttall speak at a local meeting and can assure you there are no plans to privatise the NHS. On the other hand, a couple of Labour peers have recently stated that they think there SHOULD be a charge for NHS services.

clag

Very good Peter Hitchens column in the mail stating that we will never be able to leave the EU. a conclusion I came yo years ago

By the way, I eland declared today that it was ceasing its attempts to join the EU. they think they will be better of out.

clever Icelanders

Whats Hitchins point (or a link) as I can't find it, thankyou please.

I think this is the article. Yes, it is another good Hitchens article spelling out that the EU is an empire and nothing will stop its goals.

hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/11/david-camerons-merkel-delusion-.html

Julia

If you're interested, the BBC (which is supposed to be neutrail) explains UKip's stance on health. You will see that Ukip is
against TTIP (unlike Lab and Con)
against PFI (inlike Lab)
against outsourcing (unlike Lab and Con0.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29660717

So I'm quite content with their NHS policies.