Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

[claig]

Panic in elite circles

watching Tristram Hunt on QT. yet another red Red clone

not as true Labour as a wood louse.

How can a working man from a Northern or Essex or ..........constituency look at Tristram and think he has anything in common with him or that Tristram has any idea of his way of life

'does that mean he would forgo it?"

I don't have faith that he wouldn't.

"How can a working man from a Northern or Essex or ..........constituency look at Tristram and think he has anything in common with him or that Tristram has any idea of his way of life"

Just another metropolitan elite, private school, Oxbridge champagne socialist.

This is a terrible Question Time.

Owen Patterson is not doing himself any favours, he seems a bit thick

No wonder the country is going down the plughole when you look at who we have in Parliament. I can't wait for some UKIP common sense.

Ha ha ha .... this country HAD plug hole problems, it now has solutions we have to work through - best people write down any UKIP "common sense" it ever they finds it, as their promises have a very short shelf life, and then disappear from official cyber space.

It is one thing for a UKIP Party leader of your silly party to DISOWN every policy as leader he signed off on;

“UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire (2010) general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.
news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel

It is another thing to try and wipe that UKIP policy “modernizing”, and previous inflammatory immigration speeches, right off the face of this Earth.

“UKIP spokesman Michael Heaver confirmed that the party’s 2010 election manifesto had been removed. While the party now opposes the planned high-speed north-south rail line, the 2010 document advocated building three new routes. “We’re in the process of updating everything,” Heaver said by telephone. “We’re going through a policy review.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-15/u-k-parties-prepare-for-2015-by-erasing-web-histories.html

“Both these are outdone by the U.K. Independence Party, which has no record of any speeches made before March this year. The earliest news item is leader Nigel Farage’s New Year 2013 message.

What happened to all that 'wisdom'???

"UKIP Party leader of your silly party"

That breaks every guideline in the MNHQ book. Disgraceful. I don't usually contact MNHQ to delete posts, but let me tell you, I am most sorely tempted to do so on this occasion.

"What happened to all that 'wisdom'???"

It's all being mentioned at doorsteps all over Rochester. The people down there are ecstatic - "common sense" at last and an end to political correctness. The residents of Rochester think Christmas has come early and Farage is Santa.

Methinks Claig protests too much, over too little.

The people of Rochester are 'ecstatic' that they get to protest again the government in time honoured by-election fashion, and still KEEP the Conservative MP they know and trust, only wearing purple - rather than the usual numb-nuts UKIP offers voters, that at best, in by-elections kept coming second.

As per the 'common sense' (clearly the UKIP buzz words for the next week) oooops, clearly it is STILL 'Conservative'. lol

”Mark Reckless refuses to back scrapping HS2 in first public split with Ukip leader Nigel Farage”

“Former Tory MP tells The Telegraph he stands by previous HS2 support despite Ukip officially opposing plan and Mr Farage calling it 'undesirable, unwanted and unloved'

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11170215/Mark-Reckless-refuses-to-back-scrapping-HS2-in-first-public-split-with-Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage.html

You keep harping back yo 2010 to an old manifesto that is no longer extant.

should we harp back to Heaths time, to 3 day weeks, to power strikes to Heath taking us into Europe?

Move on Isitmebut

discuss the future if you can

that's what Claig and I are doing while you remain stuck I a prehistoric time bellowing the same boring messa

And you have a lot yo learn about UKIP

MPs are free to speak their minds

Shock horror.

They don't have a whipping system to funnel the Tory can in fodder through the lobby that the Whips have chosen for them

No, it's much better than that. Everyone has a right to their own view and if the MP cannot be persuaded to follow the party position then the party needs to reconsider whether its position is tenable.

How very strange. Some might even all it democratic.

WetAugust ….. dear, dear me, NO ONE objectively looking at the UK political parties, can EVER say that the Conservative parliamentary party don’t have their own opinions and SPEAK OUT against the leadership on numerous issues, just look at Europe for heavens sake.

Whereas in ‘the cult called Farage’, U-kippers are like the Moonies, where they all now dress in the same purple clothes and chant on message ‘we are not racist’, ‘we are different’, ‘you need change’ – ask ex ‘kipper Godfrey Bloom an ex MEP and purveyor of funds to Farage, I mean, if you can’t be in public office talk IN PUBLIC about “Bongo Bongo Land” and call every women in the room “sluts” – what sort of 'new' party is that? lol
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2791408/former-mep-godfrey-bloom-quits-ukip-political-correct-warns-douglas-carswell-watch.html

Re UKIP’s 2010 manifesto, as it the last one UKIP published, what other clue does the electorate have on what you stand for on numerous domestic issues – as that was the last one you went to a General Election holding in your hand?

Ukippers, similar to the Moonies, are clearly blinded by the sun emitting from their leader’s orifices, as how can they trust the political and economic judgement of a UKIP leader, who saw the economic/regional growth necessity of THREE new train lines in 2010, but not have ONE new train line a year or so later – yet followers all ding their little bells and ‘chant’, THIS is the ‘change the UK needs’.

How could UKIP work in any anti socialist 2015 coalition where they have to agree a joint policy document in the first week, when after 20-odd years UKIP haven’t got a clue what THEY want within their own.

P.S. Re Mr Reckless, you are missing the irony of why he said he left the Conservatives; their policies, and the leader didn't listen to him. Hmmm.

So it is worse than e 1.7 that the EU wants this year.

Turns out our payments rose something like 2.3 billion LAST year

No wonder this nation is broke

WetAugust .... Double dear, dear, me ... yet more mistruths and spin from a UKIP, who's lust for Westminster power will ensure Labour forms the 2015 and there will be no EU Referendum - WHICH IS THE ONLY POSSIBLE WAY, for the UK to democratically leave.

Please show me the link that shows the UK's NET repeat NET payment, went up "2.3 billion LAST year - as this graph (below) shows different.

“Thanks to Blair UK contributions to EU have DOUBLED in five years to £8billion ...even before the latest bill for extra £1.7billion”

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814147/UK-contributions-payments-EU-DOUBLED-five-years-8billion-latest-bill-extra-1-7bn.html
• UK was £8.6billion worse off in 2013, up from £4.3billion in 2009
• Ukip leader Nigel Farage says Britain cannot afford to stay in the EU
• Biggest cause of rise was Tony Blair sacrificing part of EU rebate
• Margaret Thatcher secured rebate in 1984 by banging on the table
• Comes as Brussels demands an extra £1.7billion by December 1
• Sharp rise in support for leaving the EU after row over shock bill
• Nick Clegg travels to Paris to seek support from France over battle

P.S. The country is 'broke' because of the 2010 UK annual £158 billion overspend, from the pro EU Labour Party (probably within a 2015 coalition of pro EU socialist parties) UKIP will let back in - rather than get behind the Conservatives Referendum.

Save yourself a lot of typing

It's £450 for every household in the UK

Quite indefensible. communism.

"Ukip extends lead over Tories in Rochester, new poll finds

A new poll finds that Nigel Farage's party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives ahead of the Rochester by-election on November 20"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11202499/Ukip-has-extended-its-lead-over-the-Tories-in-Rochester-new-poll-finds.html

Farage shows no mercy to the spinners by cutting them to the quick with the following line. But the people want him to show no mercy to the modernisers, they expect nothing short of a landslide

"I'd hate to be David Cameron this Halloween: there'll be no treats, and his tricks aren't working".

I'd guess that Cameron will not be any more concerned if the poll shows a 13% or 15% lead in a by-election governments rarely win; and I'd suggest Cameron will be far happier seeing the following result, as it show 'the people' THINK TWICE voting for UKIP, when the issues directly affect their community/lives, as 'the issues' will in a 2015 General Election, as the last 3 General Elections, when UKIP votes plummet.

After this highly unsensitive UKIP campaign;

“Ukip Hit 'Unacceptable Low' With Rotherham Child Abuse Poster Campaign”
www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukip-hit-unacceptable-low-rotherham-child-abuse-poster-campaign-1471900

UKIP despite no doubt their usual social media bombardments and only a 15% turnout, were unable to win a Police Commissioner prize, even when there were racial overtones to the position.

“Labour win South Yorkshire police commissioner poll”
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29850080

“Labour's Alan Billings has been voted in as the new Police and Crime Commissioner for South Yorkshire.”

“Dr Billings took just over 50% of the vote in the poll held following the resignation of Shaun Wright following the Rotherham child abuse scandal.”

“The turnout was 14.88%, down from 14.93% in 2012.”

“Doncaster council chief executive, Jo Miller, said the turnout at the ballot box in the town was only 3.5%, with 11.7% postal votes.”

Shame that more column inches are devoted to criticising Ikips stance than are to condemning the 'authorities' that allowed these abusers to get away with their crimes.

But that's the usual response of the big 3 parties for you - collective offensive instead of action.

Anyway, I won't start crowing about Rochester as the newspapers are hinting that David Davis is ready to launch a leadership challenge when Dave loses.

That would be bad news as we need David Davis unblemished to take over when Dave is finally rumbled.

David Cameron's record, on its own or versus Mr Davis is there for all to see; IF repeat IF David Davis (or thick journalists) have not worked out yet that UKIP only appears to be able to win Westminster seats if sitting Conservatives (that voters trust) defect to UKIP - he ain't up to the job.

And furthermore Conservative voters, would storm Westminster and give any yellow striped Conservative Mps who cannot find the facts to campaign on Conservatives successes, but has not got the guts to join a UKIP who 'modernize' all their domestic policies on a whim, a helping boot.

The closer we get to May 2015, the more voters who have 'protested' to then, will see all the economic, UK devolution, EU etc we face - and understand they cannot risk a likely minority Labour government (and their past record on those subjects) in 2015 to protect English interests - heavily influenced in Westminster by the then much larger Scottish Nationalist Party.

A Labour drop of 40 seats in Scotland to the SNP, in context (in a first past the post system), in 2005 Labour had 35% of the vote and had a 66 parliamentary seat majority, while in 2010 the Conservatives had 36% of the vote and were 20 seats short of a majority.

"And Tory strategist Lynton Crosby told MPs that the party could still win next year because of Ed Miliband’s unpopularity.

But one MP who stayed away, warned that the Tory leadership was underestimating the threat posed by the current situation. ‘I didn’t go, because I thought I was better off putting in a day’s campaigning. The message is always the same – Labour are so hopeless that we are going to somehow pull things out of the fire. It’s just like 1996.’

The Prime Minister was rocked earlier last month by the Clacton by-election, where Tory defector Douglas Carswell crushed his former party to become Ukip’s first elected MP.

A second defeat by Ukip would be a body blow to Mr Cameron just six months out from the General Election.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage is predicting that more MPs will defect to the anti-EU party if Mr Reckless wins, sparking further debilitating by-elections"

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2816264/UKIP-course-crush-Conservatives-Rochester-Strood-election-taking-15-point-lead-poll-finds.html

What a disaster! Nothing can stop the people - David Davis won't make much difference, because over half their MPs are probably still modernisers.

Just read the comments of Daily Mail readers underneath that article to see what contempt the Tories are held in by people who once would have voted Tory. They have been in less than 5 years. This disastrous turn around has nothing to do with the economy or even immigration - it is due to the fact that they ignored and insulted us with their progressive, modernisation agenda. They took us for granted and now you can hardly ever read a positive comment about The Tories in the Daily Mail comments section by readers.

Interesting analysis Isitmebut

I like analysis.

The problem is that you're relying in the "it'll be alright on the night because they will vote to keep Ed out"

in previous elections that may have been so. But people who have joined UKIP are passionate about their new party which is a party with a primary policy of leaving the EU. They don't see Ed as electable, and they know that Lab will probably not be able to for a majority Govt anyway as Ed will lose his Scottish MPs. So the threat of bite UKIP get Ed doesn't work with them

they also really don't care if they do get Ed. I have tried to explain this before. They DO Not believe the Tories,especially led by Cameron, wants to leave the EU. They don't believe Dave will actually give them a referendum, and that view hasn't been helped by the failure to get the referendum bill passed last week - so law statutory obligation for a referendum, so a promise.

I've come to the conclusion that, just a Labour split and modernised into New Labour, the right has to do the same. the Tories cannot ho on living with this festering sore of the EU. I am seeing the disagreement over the EU constantly played out in the Press as 'only a handful of nutty Tory MPs still have an anti EU stance, But that falls apart when youngest the raging headlines of 100 Tory MP s threaten to vote against Dave on this that or the other.

SO is it spin and the Tory's are all united on the EU or is it spin designed yo make people,believe the Tories are united on EU.

For Cameron to get reform he needs EU friends, treaty changes etc etc. He does not have these luxuries. We've been told for decades that the CAP needs reform but nothing happens. Why should they suddenly rush to give Dave the reforms he wants? it won't happen

So it's time for those Tories who are anti EU to accept that the at ories cannot deliver a reformed EU and to move to parties that better reflect their views. OR. The Tories come out and state that in reality the timescales and appetite for EU reform make it unachievable and therefore, as the european Experiment penalises this country the Tories will become a BREXIT party. by doing that UKIP is dead in the water. Tories win elections again. Everyone is happy expect the pro EU former Tories who I feel should be in the Liberal party anyway

www.facebook.com/events/1490845731194733/?ref=ts&fref=ts

that's what we're doing in Rochester - stopping fascists who support UKIP

You poor deluded souls. Well I hope the weather stays nice fir you as you march to the tune of Billy Bragg.

One day you may grow up and understand politics and then we can gave a serious discussion.

PS. I, and about 50 other people, once watched a group of thugs from the Anti Fascist league beat up a BNP supporter who was exercising his democratic right to represent his party by attending the election night count in our town hall.

Since them I have been aware that bigoted thugs also exist on the Left.

"the european Experiment penalises this country the Tories will become a BREXIT party. by doing that UKIP is dead in the water. Tories win elections again"

The Tories are finished, it doesn't matter what they do. The majority of people in the country do not yet want to leave the EU. Come a referendum, they will wobble under the spin and pressure and big business dire warnings etc. Europe is about the 7th main concern for the majority of people, so even if the Tories adopted an anti-EU position they would still lose. They don't stand a chance up North or in Scotland whatever they do.

UKIP is here to stay becuase it represents millions of the working and middle classes and that is not because of their EU policy. However, what will happen over time is that UKIP will become successful in Parliament and Farage will want EU exit and people will not mind that because Farage will get the airtime to explain why and since he is popular people will say we prefer Farage to the other alternatives and so will not be bothered by EU exit and will ignore the spin from the metropolitan media to stop them voting for an exit to the EU.

UKIP is not a temporary phenomenon. The Tories made teh fatal mistake of disregarding and insulting their core vote. Half their membership left, they will never be going back. Many Tory voters have had enough. The Tories' mistakes under the modernisers, the Eton and Oxbridge elite, opened the door to UKIP and UKIP grabbed its chance with both hands. There is now no way that the Tories can win their lost voters back. It's over.

I disagree that they are finished Claig

I really do worry that you are going to be bitterly disillusioned post GE 2025 when the Tories will be the largest party again.

UKIP are losing lots of by elections. They are not impregnable. It a lot if not mist constituencies their support will only translate into a few thousand votes. They will only gain a handful of seats, if any. And that will disappoint their ardent supporters.

However I was reading last night about the Labour Party and it seems that in their first GE they Gand 26 seats. The Liberals at that time were in melt down. Plus change, plus....

'I really do worry that you are going to be bitterly disillusioned post GE 2025 when the Tories will be the largest party again.'

I won't be because this is a long battle to represent the people. UKIP can't win a general election yet, but they will do one day. The Tories will win, but Tory splits will continue and UKIP will have torn huge chunks out of the Tory vote and the Labour vote. That will only grow because the Tory leopard can't change its spots, they will be the same modernisers they are now, because they will be the same metropolitan elite. So their real problem will not go away - they do not represent the people.

This is a very good analysis of why UKIP lost in South Yorkshire, except for the point about the UKIP posters, which were not the reason. I saw the UKIP candidate on TV and he was not very good, very smart, very clever and he was also an ex policeman from that force. Labour breathed a sigh of relief and crowed "we took UKIP on and won" which is now almost a miraculous feat, so devastating is the UKIP advance on the spinners all over the county.

But ordinary people don't care about PPC elections, they don't bother to vote and the Labour Party machine and its postal vote is much better organised than UKIP's. But Farage is going to scrap a lot of the postal voting system, and in real elections that do count, the people will turn out and they will kick the spinners out.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/31/why-did-ukip-lose-south-yorkshire-police-crime-commissioner-byelection

"UKIP are losing lots of by elections. They are not impregnable."

Yes, because the people don't consider these as that important. But wait for Rochester and see what message the people send there.

It is going to be a long road for UKIP but they will get there. Once they are in Parliament, they will be on TV, they will make news and they will win council elections everywhere. They are the only party that is different to all of the spinners and they represent millions of ordinary people. That is why they will eventually win.

Labour List has got it right

"Could we be witnessing the death of the Conservative Party?"

With all the hype about UKIP people seem to be missing the real – though linked – story in the evolution of the British party system – the continuing and now accelerating existential crisis facing the Tory Party.
...
Tory Party membership has collapsed even faster than the general rate of decline of membership of political parties, down to 134,000 from 253,000 when David Cameron was elected leader in 2005.

Those members that remain are increasingly elderly. 61% are over 60 and the average age keeps increasing as few young people are recruited. Many of the keenest activists have defected to UKIP where they can find an uncompromising diet of political red meat away from the compromises of the Coalition.

This decline in their activist base is important because in close-run elections like 2010 and most likely 2015 ability to mobilise volunteer activists in key marginals could decide the outcome of the election.

Part of the reason for the decline in Tory fortunes is that they face unprecedented ideological competition from UKIP on their right. UKIP offers something of a crude version of the political recipe that made Mrs Thatcher popular with the Tory base. The Tories are thus faced with a huge dilemma. They cannot outbid UKIP’s populism, particularly on Europe and migration, without moving into territory which would make them unelectable with many swing voters. The compromises of being in coalition with the Lib Dems seem to have involved keeping all their unpopular economic and public services policies but being unable to give 2010 Tory voters what they want on the EU or the linked issue of immigration. The messaging that sustained their base in elections through to 2005 has been completely stolen from them.

Cameron talked about modernisation as a solution to the Tories’ woes in 2005 and thereby alienated their activist and voter base with a focus on liberalising the Tory image on issues like gay marriage that are anathema to those people. But then he didn’t drive forward any comprehensive wider reform of the Tory structure or policy platform sufficient to either bring in new groups of supporters as Blair did with New Labour, or to reduce the power of the party right over candidate selection.

He’s neither an election winner nor someone who has delivered popular policies for either his base or swing voters. He therefore faces a voter base and activist base and parliamentary party very few of whom feel any personal or ideological loyalty towards him. Most of them are on a spectrum somewhere between indifference towards his fate and absolute contempt

labourlist.org/2014/04/could-we-be-witnessing-the-death-of-the-conservative-party/

And here is something from a lifelong Tory member in Open Democracy

"The decline and fall of the Conservative Party"
...
When David Cameron became Leader of the Conservative Party in 2005 there were 258,239 members of the Party. By the beginning of 2010 membership had fallen to 177,000. In the three years from 2010 to 2012 membership fell a further 44,000 to 133,000. My own constituency of Beaconsfield has the second highest membership of any Constituency Association in the country. Its membership in 2012 was 1,363. This year by 31st May almost 25% of the members had not renewed their subscription to the Party. On anecdotal evidence this is fairly typical of most Associations. This means that the total Party membership is now approximately 100,000, so we have lost over 150,000 members since David Cameron became the Leader of the Party. The loss of 150,000 is a net loss after taking into account new members joining the Party. Assuming that the Party got say 5,000 new members each year then the loss of members is 190,000.

Why has this happened? What effect will it have and can anything be done to change this disastrous trend?
...
For some years Conservative Central Office has ignored the views of members. It has treated them with contempt."

www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/john-e-strafford/decline-and-fall-of-conservative-party

They have treated us with contempt, and now we are giving them contempt back in spades.

Time have changed. The old days are over. People are no longer mugs and they won't be treated as such. The Establishmentis reeling because people are waking up.

They are out-of-touch with the people and I don't think they will be able to get back in touch.

They have no Farage figure. If you watch them on Channel 4 News, you just have to laugh. Farage doesn't even have to say or do anything to be more popular than all of them combined.

We are only at the beginning of this revolution, and no Establishment sponsored Rusell Brand figure can halt it. It is only going to accelerate and it will topple spinners from safe-seats everywhere in teh coming decade.

Who said politics was boring? The people are going to make it fun.

And the decline of the Tory Party is a disaster for Labour, because UKIP will show Labour up for what they are - the same metropolitan elite, PPE, Oxbridge, private school elite as the Tories.

They are all the same and UKIP are different and that is why UKIP will trounce Labour everywhere in the coming decade.

That is why the metropitan elite and all their mates are throwing the kitchen sink at UKIP and the people, they know the game is up.