Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

[Isitmebut]

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

'what makes you believe those still supporting, nay clapping the prat, will NOT vote for Labour to 31%?'

Because those people in the Conference are not representative of the majority of the population - many of them are just party apparatchiks and luvvies on the gravy train.

The election will be won on the economy and Ed Brawls is Labour's man for that - the PPE who was in government when the economy went down the pan.

Labour are not serious. They are fighting on the NHS. That is not enough. That won't win them the election. "Fairness" won't win the election. Platitudes, spin and moonshine won't cut it with the public.

The people want change and economic answers. They will stick with Osborne, but they will also vote UKIP in droves because that is what they really want. The PPEs in the Conservative Party will have to accept that UKIP represents the people and the PPEs represent the luvvies, and that is why the PPEs will have to reach an accommodation with UKIP in order to win the people over.

Labour don't stand a chance. Miliband is not serious, he apparently doesn't even read English newspapers, he grins and laughs through interviews on serious questions and he was like a fish out of water in Scotland, where Cameron, the Eton toff, is more popular than the leader of the Labour Party.

'The lack of policy detail in Manchester has to lead outsiders to believe he thinks he can take Labour over the 31% post feeding with red meat and crunchy soundbites.'

I think it is the opposite. It shows that they are not serious. The Establishment PPEs do not expect them to win. Maybe they don't even want them to win. They will blow it by concentrating on the wrong things and not listening to the people. However many Gareths they talk about, they are still fumbling about in the dark, the election won't be a stroll in the park. It is starting to look like just a lark.

They are not serious. Their spinners can't even answer basic questions on how they will value properties for their mansion tax, how they will pay for 20,000 more nurses or anything else.

They have had 4 years to prepare and if that speech and that spin is the best that they can do, then it looks like they are not being serious and are taking the public for fools. But the livvies can't fool the public anymore because UKIP has changed the rules.

The discussion has moved on from this morning - I'd just googled the other by-election. Found this ... I think that's one of those headlines where the likeliest answer is 'probably not'. I wouldn't count those particular chickens before they're hatched.

One of the reasons being, Godfrey Bloom has such a wonderful capacity to make 50% of the electorate go and check it's not still the 1950s ... pub, rugby club and cricket club FFS. You don't have to be a 'luvvie' (whatever the hell that means) to not frequent those.

BTW, about that green crap and subsidies.... serious economists reckon that moving to renewables and 'greener' solutions would lead to an increase in GDP. Worldwide, fossil fuels - which even apart from climate change, cause all manner of expensive health problems and are of course ultimately a finite resource - are much more highly subsidised than renewables. UKIP is yesterday's men promoting yesterday's solutions, and I reckon that the people are on the whole wise enough to be able to work that out.

'serious economists reckon that moving to renewables and 'greener' solutions would lead to an increase in GDP'

Then why do the luvvies have to call on all the actors, pop stars and celebrities to try and convince China and India that that is the thing to? Those countries know the truth. They pay lip service to the luvvies but carry on with business as usual. Even Osborne, all credit to him, shocked the luvvies when he said "we are not going to bankrupt Britain to save the planet".

Maybe because it's a new report? It takes even proper politicians time to rethink entrenched positions. Whether slebs are in favour of any particular cause or not is IMO completely irrelevant either way.

serious economists reckon that moving to renewables and 'greener' solutions would lead to an increase in GDP'

Not to the luvvies it isn't. They use celebrities to try and sway the ordinary public.

Right now all the UN bigwigs are meeting over climate change and Leonard di Caprio has supported their cause. They need that publicity for the TV cameras to convince ordinary people. In the Scottish independence vote, lots of actors and celebs were also needed to try and sway the Scottish public.

Claig ... I take their polling advisor lack of detail, that limited their damage in 2010 and also got Obama re elected last time, as a strategy to win, and if anyone should understand that, the U-kippers should.

So I do not share your opinion/optimism, especially as there will be one of two main parties running the government and Ukip could determine it will be Labour.

Wait a minute, if you think, that I'll think, that the Conservatives will win, I'd stop attacking Ukip's non policies - how tricksy is that - damn those cut throat politics, I nearly fell for it. lol

Sorry above post was in response to

"Whether slebs are in favour of any particular cause or not is IMO completely irrelevant either way."

My copy and paste did not work.

Claig .... if those in Westminster are 'luvvies', what does that make all those UK MEP's doing sod all, on far more money+expenses than MPs in Brussels - that ASPIRE in going to Westminster, and being funded by the taxpayer whilst in waiting???

How about 'tartties'????

Any more suggestions within the puerile name game?

'Any more suggestions within the puerile name game?'

No, I refuse to stoop to that level.

'that ASPIRE in going to Westminster'

But UKIP candidates aspire to go to Westminster in order to be able to represent the people, not the interests of the metropolitan elite.

To be sure politicians will try to use popular public figures to promote their causes. Even UKIP, apparently, though the quality and quantity of 'supporters' is ... hmm well. Least said soonest mended.

Anyway, nice attempt at spurious diversion - whether slebs are pro or anti green or not is irrelevant to whether renewables will be economically beneficial.

'whether slebs are pro or anti green or not is irrelevant to whether renewables will be economically beneficial.'

Very few slebs are anti green. That might harm their chances of receiving a knighthood or baronetcy in future.

If renewables were as economically beneficial as you say, then China and India would be turning to them. But those countries know that the aim of teh campaign is to slow down their growth and cut back their industrial output and production which has lifted millions of their poor people out of poverty.

Osborne bravely dared to defy the luvvies and even said "we will not bankrupt Britain to save the planet" abd Cameron is reported to have said that we have to "cut the green crap". China probably took note of what they said, which must have angered the luvvies immensely.

Anuway, this thread was started because of a defection and guess who has now defected to the Dark Side?

Yes - Paxo!

He's been hired in to cover the election campaign.

Would pay a lot to see him and Jon Snow together.

Good article by Channel 4's Michael Crick linked to by ErrolTheDragon

"Far more interesting, in my view, is the Lancashire constituency of Heywood and Middleton, whose MP Jim Dobbin died a fortnight ago. It looks ripe for plucking by Ukip.

Local Labour sources certainly think so. ”Shadow cabinet members are sh themselves about losing,” one Labour figure has told me.

...

"on a brief visit yesterday to Heywood, Ukip had already made an impact with voters. I only spoke to a couple of dozen people, I suppose, but many were unimpressed by Ed Miliband. ”A waste of space,” is how one voter described the Labour leader."

...

"For the first time, I am starting to think Ukip could end up with a vote next May above 10 per cent and maybe in the teens."

blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/ukip-win-byelection-labour/4403

Wouldn't surprise me. Good people are the same everywhere. I wonder if Miliband has spoken to any voters in parks in Clacton or Heywood and Middleton. His "advisers" probably wouldn't send him out to the park there.

You're such a cynic, Claig. I'm more optimistic that we can help save the planet while at the same time improving our economic position - GO will hopefully realise soon that his 'bankrupt or save the planet' was a false dichotomy.

Time will tell what China and India will do. Can't blame them for waiting till we get our overprivileged fingers out and face the realities of the future.

Clacton is a dead cert UKIP victory, but if the Labour seat of Heywood and Middleton goes UKIP then we will witness panic among the elite as has never been seen before. MPs would possibly be queuing up to defect to UKIP before the People's Army take even more seats across the country.

Ed Miliband's "advisers" would probably then tell him to set up a permanent tent in the park to try and meet as many ordinary people as he can before polling day.

Yes, I linked that piece - but looking at the numbers in it, a UKIP win seems a bit far-fetched. I'm sure they'll pick up the ex-BNP support and a fair few others and will claim a victory in terms of increased vote, which is only to be expected at a by-election this close to the real thing. My bet is that Labour will hang on there despite Milliband.

ErrolTheDragon, I am a realist. The elites in China and India are not stupid, they understand the game, they understand the luvvies, and Leonardo di Caprio and no other celeb or UN "ambassador" can be used to fool them.

'My bet is that Labour will hang on there despite Milliband.'

Possibly, but look at Scotland and how 42% of Labour voters abandoned Labour's position in spite of Labour's Jim Murphy touring Scotland with two Irn Bru crates under his arm. They didn't fall for Jim's charm.

It all depends on what ordinary people think of Labour and Miliband and whether they think they are any different to the Tories. In Scotland people shouted at Jim Murphy "you're a red Tory".

I think there may be a surprise in Heywood and Middleton and panic will then spread throughout Labour's green benches. The Tories probably hope so, to hide their embarrassment over what will happen in Clacton

"and the story is that the Tories plan a pretty weak campaign in the hope their voters might help Ukip embarrass Labour, and therefore negate – or more than negate – Ukip’s expected success in Clacton"

The Scottish referendum was an entirely different thing, not really a party political matter at all. TBH I'm surprised that it was only 42% of Labour supporters in Scotland who voted in favour of what would undoubtedly have been a socialist-dominated state.

As to China and India - of course they aren't swayed by slebs. I'm hoping for enlightened (rather than backward-looking) self-interest.

ErrolTheDragon, I think the elites in China and India don't believe in the climate change scare, and even some of our top officials probably don't really believe it but are probably too scared to voice their real opinions. There is a lot of pretence, a lot of lip service, a lot of celebs trying to corral the leaders into the pen, but as the economy declines, some major countries will break ranks and then it will be the end.

Amazingly enough, Australia started to break ranks under Tony Abbott. Luvvies went wild, all manner of abuse and celebs were called in to stem the tide. But that was just the start, exactly like Clacton will be the start too.

A lot of luvvies aren't brave enough to challenge the cosy consensus yet, but it is only a matter of time until some break ranks and then the whole edifice will collapse overnight like the house of cards that it is

"Cameron's green guru reveals his doubts over global warming

Steve Hilton, the Prime Minister’s director of strategy and ‘green guru’, is the latest person to admit to doubts about climate change.

‘I’m not sure I believe in it,’ he announced at a meeting of the Energy Department, prompting one aide to blurt out: ‘Did I just hear that correctly?’

According to one witness, Hilton, 41, the man who coined the slogan ‘Vote Blue and Go Green’ and changed the Tory symbol from a Stalinist style torch to an eco friendly tree, said: ‘Climate change arguments are highly complex.

‘My focus has always been more on using green issues to improve the quality of life.’

Hilton famously persuaded David Cameron to go to the Arctic with a pack of huskies to prove that he was determined to combat global warming in his early days as Tory leader.

Now, however, Hilton as become a big fan of former Chancellor Nigel Lawson, a vocal critic of the global warming lobby.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066720/David-Camerons-green-guru-Steve-Hilton-reveals-doubts-global-warming.html

First he's heavily into climate change then he decides it may not exist. FFS! Do these luvvies have a single original thought amongst them.

Climate change is inextricably linked to population increase. It's PC to talk about climate change. It's taboo to talk about population control.

It doesn't really matter whether climate control exists or is fiction as you can do bugger all about it without addressing population control.

WetAugust, the real elite, above all these luvvies and PPEs, want to control the population and it is elites and billlionaires who started off green movements, and the climate change scam is just a trick to try and force China and India and other countries to slow their growth and begin the process of deindustrialising and moving to a post-industrial society which will lead to poverty and a backward movement for humanity which will force the population to use fewer resources.

UKIP are against the climate change consensus which is why the elites are terrified of their growth.

well as Nige said what's the point in bothering when China is opening 3 coal fuelled power stations every month. Recycling my My plastic carrier bag is not even a drop in the ocean.

I am amazed at how readily the electorate in the UK soak up this very narrow PC view that is feed to them by all parties. Where are our free thinkers? Anyone who dares to challenge the accepted party view is written off as a fruitcake

How did we let it come yo this?