Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

[Isitmebut]

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

Free thinking is good.

Thinking that your opinion or 'belief' matters a hoot in the face of reality is delusional.

There's nothing 'cosy' about the consensus position - looking the future in the face and then trying to work out what the heck to do about it. It's UKIP who are trying to cosily maintain the status quo. Fingers in your ears, head in the sand.

Errol. The last thing that UKIP could be accused of is supporting the status quo. That's a ridiculous statement. The party is about Change. Changing our relationship with Europe, changing political thinking, challenging the status quo.....

That's why UKIP us such a threat to the old guard who want to retain the status quo with the electorate more concerned about what's happening in Corrie or Eastenders than they are in what is being done in their names.

'I am amazed at how readily the electorate in the UK soak up this very narrow PC view that is feed to them by all parties'

Yes, that is the power of the media. This is above the heads of the parties which is why it is EU level and UN level and why all the celebs are on board.
Steve Hilton, Cameron's former "green guru", was all for it, but later dared to say ‘I’m not sure I believe in it'.

He is not sure .

UKIP have called all their bluffs and of course the public will be with UKIP which is why the EU and all the elite are terrified of UKIP, as well as the fact that they want to leave the EU.

Farage's official position is that he does not know whether the climate change they say is happening is happening, but he does know that their plans to combat it are crazy. But there are other UKIP backers and members who dare to say it is a scam.

James Delingpole supports or supported UKIP and was turned down as a candidate. They may have thought he was too much of a loose cannon. That is a shame, it shows that they are trying to play it safe and not ruffle the feathers of the elite too much. But, even so, they still have the elite terrified and a Project Fear 2 is probably not far off.

If we start bombing Syria and Iraq it will probably have an effect on the forthcoming GE as traditionally the public support the Govt at times of war.

I hope they vote to stay well out of this one.

I sometimes think the world has gone absolutely crazy

Claig

Over 1000 at tonight's meeting in Clacton. 90% were not UKIP party members.

Interesting. Lots of pictures on Twitter

Wow. They will be mentioning it on BBC News East after the ten o'clock news. Will try and track it down on twitter.

The Financial Times has just released an article on UKIP in the Heywood and Middleton by-election. Things are getting serous, panic is in the air.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/709407c2-43e9-11e4-8abd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3EGccJFOi

Wow, and the metropolitan elite and luvvies say that the people are apathetic and anti-politics

twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/514859113025925120/photo/1

Farage got a standing ovation when he walked in. There were traffic jams outside.

BBC reporter said that public political meetings like UKIP's one in Clacton where anyone can turn up are rare because the mainstream parties like to screen their attendees.

UKIP has nothing to fear from the people because the people are on its side. Only a handful of revolutionary socialists and Bullingdon Club members appear with banners to shout UKIP down.

If I was Nige I would be staying well away from tunnels especially Parisienne tunnels.

Claig

I don't have access to the FT article. Would you mind telling me what the gist is.
Thanks

They can't stop UKIP because the people are behind them.
They will have to do a deal with him and accept that he represents the people and they represent the luvvies.

It is a constituency with quite a lot of old people and people in the street are again favourable to UKIP.

Labour have a candidate that is concentrating on their usual one and only thing - campaigning on the NHS.

Just 4 miles up the road, Miliband at the Labour conference was mocking Cameron for being scared of UKIP. But at a fringe meeting of Labour MPs, panic was in the air as they discussed the UKIP threat and how they had taken their voters for granted. The Labour Thurrock candidate, who was on Channel 4 News the other day, said that the voters don't "belong to us".

But the expert on UKIP who has written a book on them feels that UKIP won't win and that Labour will hold it. But if Tory voters switch to UKIP, it could push UKIP's vote up.

thanks Claig. I would have thought that 5000 was do-able but as the sitting MP died there will be those who will vote Labour out of respect I expect.

I had to. Stop watching the Labour Conference today. It was just making me too angry.

I just watched Jon Snows interview either Milliband on last nights C 4 news. It was BAD. My prediction that Ed is going to be good comedy value I so true.

WetAugust - For clarity, I know about the Rochdale case but I am not as immediately familiar with the details as is the case with Rotherham, so I can't comment on the ethnicity of the victims there.

The people want change and economic answers. They will stick with Osborne, but they will also vote UKIP in droves because that is what they really want

The opinion polls do not support you. Whilst opinion polls are not perfect they have a pretty good record of getting election results right since messing up completely in 1992.

Based on current voting intention figures, UKIP will pick up around 10%-15% of the vote and may finish third nationally, pushing the LibDems down to fourth. Given that UKIP pick up votes disproportionately from the Tories (by a factor of about 2 to 1) the effect will be to split the right wing vote allowing Labour to gain power. Labour are currently polling around 35% which will see them comfortably into power with a 30 seat majority. It is likely there will be a swing back towards the government as the election approaches but if the Tories are to win or get close enough to form another coalition the parties should have crossed over in the polls by now.

It is likely part of the Tory campaign will be on the theme, "vote UKIP, get Miliband". Unless UKIP substantially improve their vote and/or start taking as many votes from Labour as they do from the Tories they will be right. A vote for UKIP will, to all intents and purposes, be a vote for Miliband.

"Ukip claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days
Announcement could be made at Ukip's conference, which opens today"

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2768798/Ukip-claims-two-Tories-ready-defect-Party-secretary-says-MPs-unveiled-days.html

prh47bridge, I don't think the polls really reflect the public mood. Also Cameron has just done Labour up like a kipper with the English votes for English laws thing. It will start to become obvious to English voters that Labour do not treat them with respect.

Claig … wihy do you keep saying Cameron, who NEVER wanted to put ‘Devo Max’ as a third option on the Scottish Referendum ballot paper, had ‘done Labour up like a kipper’????

Didn’t Labour (rightly at the time) via Mr Brown put Devo Max on the table a week before?

If Devo Max had been offered to Scotland when the ballot was announced, it would have opened up the prospect at the time, and work would have been done to prepare for it on Day One – and that could have been a blue-print for Wales and N. Ireland.

Scotland has what it wants, Miliband wants to keep what he has, which is the prospects of Labour having up to 59 Scottish MP’s voting in Westminster, on English matters – and it is Labour wanting perpetual power via regional assemblies, dodgy UK boundaries, NON EU immigrants from 2000 onwards voting for them, as well as Scottish seats in our parliament, that is doing England up like a U-kipper.

”From Glasgow to Barcelona, historian DOMINIC SANDBROOK fears Europe is returning to the crude nationalism that caused such misery”

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2763047/From-Glasgow-Barcelona-historian-DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-fears-Europe-returning-crude-nationalism-caused-misery.html

“As we have seen throughout history, from Germany and Italy in the 1930s to the war-torn Yugoslavia in the 1990s, nationalism thrives as a panacea, offering glib solutions and easy scapegoats. But it also offers an immensely compelling appeal to people who feel stranded by economic change and abandoned by their privileged political masters.”

In that sense, strange as it may sound, it is obvious why so many Scottish voters fell for the vision propounded by the demagogues, cranks and zealots so prominent in the separatist campaign.

”They believed that Mr Salmond offered them something better: a magic wand that would transform their fortunes overnight”

Those sentiments are not going to vanish overnight.

In many ways, they are the mirror image of the alienation felt by millions of voters in England.

”And in that respect, the rise of Scottish nationalism is not so different from the extraordinary surge in Ukip support south of the border, where Nigel Farage — another cheeky chap peddling simple solutions — plays the part of Mr Salmond.”

P.S. If ANY Conservatives who are not proud of their record in government, want to leave and join Farage and his merry men, who only offer 1930’s nationalism as ‘different’, then the Party, and the country, are better off without them making laws in parliament.

yes, I will concede that in many cases a vote for Nige will get you Ed.

But you keep missing the point, time and time again.

WE DONT CARE IF WE DO GET ED. Because they are all as bad as each other and nine if them, not even Cameron, would ever propose that we leave the EU. Only Ukip is actually campaigning to leave the EU.

yes yes I know you'll tell me that UKIP cannot offer a referendum. Blah blah

Yes. I know sell that.

But WE JUST DONT CARE

And if the Tories want those Ukip votes they gave to start offering Ukip policies. that's pretty basic.

Anyway. Has anyone seen Niges Paddy Power video for the Ryder cup?

Also am pinion poll puts Ed as something like 31% weird and Nige as 33% weird. Funnily the poll asked WHich Leader us most like yourself? Answer of 30% was Nige. So people are weird. LOL

WE JUST DONT CARE

fan-bloody-tastic.

If you don't care about our government just do us all a favour and don't vote? I'd been wondering what the point of UKIP was and now I know ... there isn't one except to provide a space for people who like to whine about what's wrong and fail to offer workable alternatives. Stick to doing it in the pub and male sports clubs with Mr Bloom.

Article on the People's Army in the Guardian by the University expert on UKIP

"In the 14th century, strongly held grievances among rural workers laid the foundation for the Peasants’ Revolt. But it was the arrival of tax collectors in south-east England that proved the final straw, turning a protest into a wider insurgency across much of Essex, Kent, Norfolk and Suffolk.

Fast forward more than 600 years and it is perhaps no coincidence that the same areas of England are emerging as the heartland of a new insurgency against London elites. Much like the Peasants’ Revolt, Ukip is anchored in older grievances among working class Britons who feel left behind economically, are angry about the political elites in London, and profoundly anxious over the pace of social change. And like those workers in the 14th century who flocked around the apparently charismatic Wat Tyler, over the coming weeks Nigel Farage will lead his followers through a chain of events that will determine the destiny of his modern revolt against Westminster."

...

"He [Farage] has a clear strategy for building a longer insurgency, a core plank of which is to establish Ukip as Labour’s main opposition in the north. Nor is this political fantasy: at the European elections in May, across 51 authorities in the north-west and north-east, Ukip finished ahead of Labour in 18 and as its main rival in 30. A strong second-place finish in Heywood and Middleton will underscore the strategy.

If Ukip can win the popular vote across a swath of Labour territory when Ed Miliband and Labour are the official opposition, then what will happen at the 2016 local elections and thereafter, when Labour is the unpopular incumbent?"

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/nigel-farage-ukip-peasants-revolt-westminster-working-class-britons

I vote for UKIP because it represents my views. Other people vote Green, which is a hopeless cause electorally unless you live in Brighton.

They vote Green because it represents their views.

If Dave wants my vote he needs to start representing my views. I will not prostitutue myself by voting to keep Pro Europe Dave in power instead of Pro Europe Ed.

At least having Ed in power will be hilarious.

Imagine the panic in elite circle if UKIP announce that they will cut VAT for the people. Can't wait for some earth shattering policies to be announced in this week's UKIP conference.

WetAugust .... One way or another, either Conservatives or Labour will form the next government in 2015, and CLEARLY you are either stupid or blind if you say that in policies 'they are the same' - as the choice will be an economy run like Labour in the 1970's or a continuation on what has been achieved from 2010.

Claig .... if UKIP said they would lower VAT (now or in 2020? lol) they would be laughed out of politics, as within a Budget Deficit, there is the Structural Deficit, that will not reduce much no matter how fast the economy grows.

The Coalition in offering the £10,500 start rate of income tax, has made the Structural Deficit harder to shrink - a VAT DEcrease, would put us on the Road to Greece economics, especially when the 'big state' mob get back in.

"JD Wetherspoon, Fullers and Punch Taverns are among around 15,000 pubs and restaurants cutting their prices today (24th September). Tax Equality Day aims to highlight the benefits a cut in VAT would have on the hospitality industry.

Prices are being reduced by 7.5%, which campaigners say is equivalent to the reduction a cut in VAT to 5% on food and drink sales would have for the hospitality industry.

They argue that supermarkets, who pay no VAT on food and drink sales, have an unfair competitive advantage.

Wetherspoons saw an increase in sales of up to 23% across its pubs last year, when the event was known as Tax Parity Day.

The government did debate reducing VAT earlier this year but it was decided that the shortfall in tax revenue it would create would be too great."

home.bt.com/lifestyle/money/moneytips/pubs-cut-prices-in-vat-protest-11363934162302

Farage was in a pub in Heywood and Middleton just yesterda when pubs were participating in Tax Equality Day, no doubt sounding out drinkers on what they think of the idea.

Imagine the panic in elite circles if Farage cuts VAT on food and drink when the Tories wanted to increase VAT on the people's pasties. It doesn't bear thinking about. The people of Heywood and Middleton would start doing the conga from now right up to polling day.