Wannabe, I said that when I was still under the impression that he would have to have identified Reeva for any of the murder charges to stick.
Given that it doesn't actually matter who he thought was in there, yes, I think he is guilty of murder, and hope he is found guilty.
I've tried to work out what on earth I mean when I wrote that, given that I don't feel that right now. I think what I meant is that if he genuinely thought he was killing an intruder, then I hope he doesn't get found guilty of deliberately murdering Reeva (specifically Reeva).
I think what was going through my head was, if he sits in prison feeling that injustice, then the whole of it becomes all about him and how hard done to he is, because he was telling the truth and he didn't know it was Reeva and so forth.
If he goes to prison because there's no way he could possibly have thought that anyone could have lived through his attack, it would be harder for him to argue against and claim the injustice. He can't say 'but I was so scared so it wasn't my fault!' because the reply to that is 'doesn't matter; you gave the person behind the door no chance of surviving, which is why you're here.'
Does that make sense?
Again, we're into the realms of speculation now. I suppose, what it boils down to is this; what does he have more chance of mounting a successful appeal for; intending to kill specifically Reeva (hard to prove what was in his head with the circumstantial evidence), or intending to kill whoever was behind the door (where his intent and thoughts aren't in question; only his actions are, and we know what he did).