Shit, it's really kicking off in Egypt....

[headfairy]

watching reuters footage coming in, they've got tear gas and the police are shooting protesters now. Bloody terrifying!

begon, I'm not sure what you are referring to with respect to democracy in Gaza. Hamas won free and fair elections, much to the dismay of the international community, who then chose to ply their opposition (the PA) with support and financial assistance. That, it can be argued, is what went wrong in Gaza, rather than the democratic system itself.

LittleMiss lets hope he'll be gone - really don't think they could handle Gazza!

I've been asked what form the Govt of the future will take. In short, I don't really know.

We none of us can really know, but it would appear that there will be some representation of MB, but I don't think it'll be asking too much to have a secular government with input from various sections of the community.

I'd like to see an international figure such as Baradei gather the groups and people together to structure parties and lay down the foundations for the democratic election process.

My feeling is that initially it will be a mess, most things like this usually are when Egypt is concerned, but there are enough willing this to happen and be successful so it ought to work out in the end.

The comment about the Israeli/Egypt history is very pertinent. They won it back so that is it. I'm Alright Jack is a pretty common mindset. In general, Egyptians are not really bothered if it's not directly affecting them.

Of course that doesn't mean they are not sympathetic to others, they can be, but effective action? Not always forthcoming.

I agree with NiceGuy2 entirely.

Good morning all.
A bit shocked that "bloody hypocrite" warrants to be deleted as a personal attack. If you want to discuss politics you need to grow a thicker skin and put things in perspective.

The Islamic threat IS a red herring and that is exactly the tone of the yerodot op ed.
However, we would be complete fools to single handedly dismiss it.
In the upcoming election the parties with overt or covert pro Sharia tendencies will play a major role.
Doesn't the return of Ghannouchi in secular Tunisia give you a hint?

And don't any of you know or cares to remember what has been going on in Algeria in the last 15 years?

Am from another country in Maghreb and muslim. I know a thing or 2 about voting in such elections.....

In the Maghreb, we have a tradition of solidarity in cities and villages revolving around the mosques and "medersas". You could see it as mini NGO's. educate children, feed widows, care for the elders, deal with administrative matters (litteracy problem)

In opposition to growing political and social injustice these grassroots local solidarity groups naturally grew to become mediators with local authorities and therefore developed into structured political discourse.

They then became a major political force as well, by championing the cause of disenfranchised classes.
AND THEY STILL DO. Its really naive to think they don't.

We can counter them though. But we need help.
Eastern Europe could not have made it without the backing of the EU/US/NATO etc...

Re "Islamic government"

If we champion democracy in foreign lands, we should be prepared for the possibility that they might choose to elect governments that are distasteful or even openly hostile to us.

I found this perspective quite interesting, actually:

"We, Israelis, have been overtaken by fear: The fear of democracy. Not here, in neighboring countries. It?s as though we never prayed for our Arab neighbors to become liberal democracies. As though we never hoped to see free elections, multiparty systems, freedom of expression, and civil rights. Yet now that we see the flames of democracy engulfing the streets of Cairo, we are overcome by deep anxiety.

This fear stems from the perception that only oppressive regimes premised on a brutal secret police, dark apparatuses and the trampling of democracy can afford to make peace with Israel. Once dictatorship is gone, peace is gone too. Deep in our hearts we fear that the overwhelming majority of Arab citizens will not agree to live in peace with Israel. Hence, peace must be forced upon them."

In general its very unusual for a democracy to start a war. Other than Dubya Bush, I can't think of any other modern day democracy initiating a war. And even then you could argue that the Taliban made it all possible with 9-11.

So I don't think true democracy is anything to be afraid of.

True, except that all out war with tanks and armies on a battlefield is no longer necessary in the age of asymmetric warfare a la Al Qaeda.

Democracy WILL be supported by EU/USA/NATO.

Once the old guard has fallen, and the interim government starts to sort things out, this ridiculous hyped up fear of an islamic state will diminish.

No-one, but the seriously deluded wants that in Egypt. Sure there are jihadists, that do want to wipe Israel off the map, but they exist in the UK, the US and Europe, they don't influence our political system.

Of course there is a huge concern about people holding these violent beliefs, they will still have to be monitored, and controlled if necessary.

Don't forget, many of the people in Egypt that hold these views, hold them precisely BECAUSE the population is so oppressed, the education and integration IS so poor, that when islam and sadly radical islam stepped in and took an interest, there was no alternative. This isolation and disconnection to society is exactly why people in other countries get radicalised.

Nobody can seriously say that the Egyptian population would swap a military regime for an islamic one. That's plain daft. Talk about Frying Pan and Fire...

The main way to avoid that people are not radicalised is to ensure they have voices that are heard, that they feel that they own their own country.

Slim, I don't know that much about Morocco, I stayed there for a month in 2003, off the tourist track, and among the people. The situation there is in many ways worse than Egypt. I know you daren't say anything out loud disparaging the King and some even use a different word for Malik sometimes for fear of being overheard by secret police.

Morocco can have their own revolution too you know? They too can live freely without fear of reprisals for their own thoughts.

If you corner and control an animal it will turn savage. If you corner and control a human they will find a focus to direct their hatred. People in the ME/Gulf are doing precisely this. At no point during this uprising has there been any sectarian violence or trouble, this process has made them all realise that they are all Egyptian first, the religion second.

Over and over again I hear dismissal of some of the media hype by those in Tahrir Square and in Alex. The CNN hype worrying about the reaction of Israel, What about the reaction of Egypt's OTHER neighbours?, now THAT is the reaction I want to hear.

"hashtag dates already being planned for Arab world - Sudan #Jan30 Yemen #Feb3 Syria #Feb5 Algeria #Feb12"

I know the radical islamification of Egypt is a potential worry, but IMHO not as potent a threat as some would have us believe.

Also not good enough a reason to oppress over 80 million people.

Watch BBC, Watch AJE. Give CNN and Fox a wide berth, they are scaremongering and talking out of their hats. US media is scare focussed.

"In general its very unusual for a democracy to start a war. Other than Dubya Bush, I can't think of any other modern day democracy initiating a war."

It happens, it depends how far back you want to go and what your definition of a "modern day democracy" is.

The UK invaded Suez in the 50s.

Israel started the 6 Day War in the 60s.

Turkey invaded Cyprus in the 70s.

The US invaded Grenada in the 80s.

Serbia caused all sorts of fighting in the Former Yugoslavia in the 90s.

Russia invaded South Ossetia in the 2000s.

Of course you could argue that some of those were provoked, that the "democracy" didn't really start it or that the democracy isn't really much of a democracy. But it does go to show that democracies can and will cause conflict.

Invasion often starts wars....

This is home grown organic Democracy.

LittleMiss, am glad you are finally seeing the relevance of my (and other posters previous comments) & willing to have this discussion.

Am not scaremongering just stating the facts. These people will be part of the next election and if they do enter a government, the west must respect them as the elected representative of a mature population and engage with them to help them grow into their new institutions.
Not ostracize them and let the country fall into chaos claiming "we told you so"

We have to remember that democratic institutions (as in parliamentary democracy inherited from the greek model) has seldom been practiced in this part of the world.
Its not a coincidence that arab republics have insidiously morphed into life long caliphates with designate heirs.
The population has been mature for years but kept in this infantile state because instability with a predictable corrupt dictator serves western interests more predictably.
They would have us believe we are merely ungrateful children.

This is what has happened so far.

Am quite happy to talk about Morocco. We are sitting tight and watching.
Reform is well under way and we have leapt through the last decade since the old king died.
Pretty much the whole country is electrified and has running water. There are highways north to south and going towards algeria which has opened up a lot of remote regions and created jobs in said remote areas. The biggest port in the Med is open for business in Tangiers, a region that was quasi abandonned 10 years ago due to an gridge the old king had.

Also the press is very free in Morocco these days so it is an outlet to vent frustration against the wealthy classes and open minds to western influences (they are already very open by arab standards).
The King very cleverly lets them comment and uses the courts to inflict heavy sanctions under privacy laws.
So the appearance of democracy is safe.
We have free elections and parties campaign pretty freely...only of course some have more money and media coverage than others....like everywhere else I suppose.

The main problem is the failure to focus on private sector development.
Unlocking private led growth in the Middle East and North Africa is my humble (but informed) opinion key to our future in this part of the world.
Two major obstacles: patronage networks and connected lending, which limits access to capital to regime-friendly enterprise owners ( In Morocco, am absolutely not afraid to say it, the king and his proxies, In tunisia, the Trabelsis etc....)...in plain words systematic corruption.

EU & US policies have failed to address this issue and the economic liberalization supported by the US and the Barcelona Process has prevented private economic actors from emerging nor empowered weaker actors such as small entrepreneurs without regime connections.

What we need is focus on economic restructuring and grassroots economic activity. In plain worlds, let the humble man have a go at it and trust him to make the right decisions.

Sorry I know this makes for very long and tedious reading but just trying to answer your question.

Here is a very good blog about the situation from those who are on the ground: www.occupiedlondon.org/cairo/

Slim, I am happy to talk with anyone, and I feel your posts have become more relevant. Maybe my head was elsewhere but the no-body understands us posts really were coming in from the left field.

I honestly don't know why that spat with MH happened either.

In Morocco, you know the democracy is a veneer, and you know that you too could have your own government. You as a population would have to be much more careful because of the secret police and spies, but it could be done and ultimately HAS to happen.

In Egypt, the day you start making real money... you get a visit from Gamal and his cronies.

Large business has to pay to operate and those that don't get nationalised. Until now.

Unlocking private growth is an excellent idea, however.... LONG has the region been concerned that the youth of the region are NOT being educated in a way that would be ideally suited for the challenges/opportunities that the region will offer in the future. Extreme concern has been voiced over the skills pool.

Therefore I would worry that the potential young entrepreneurs are fewer and more far between than they ought to be. It'll take a while for the region in general to have home grown private growth IMHO.

I absolutely agree with you that half of the battle to get the region as a whole back on the path to freedom and democracy is to ensure that the economic structure is there, the investment is there and the potential for earning is there. In terms of investment, it'd have to come from outside initially. he money ought to be there, it ought to be forthcoming, it's a good investment. I don't think funding will be a problem.

I'm sure you have all heard the adage, that if ONLY Sudan were cultivated, it could feed the whole continent of Africa.

It doesn't because they are fighting, there is corruption there is disorganisation which means that they themselves have very little.

Time for every oppressed nation to wake up and smell the sweet scent of freedom. Too long have the many been held back by the corrupt few.

'Am not scaremongering just stating the facts. These people will be part of the next election and if they do enter a government, the west must respect them as the elected representative of a mature population and engage with them to help them grow into their new institutions. Not ostracize them and let the country fall into chaos claiming "we told you so"'

The facts are that if a Government is elected that doesn't renounce violence against or recognise a key US ally then the US will have difficulties engaging with them. Military aid would certainly be cut. Even with Mubarak the US has blocked the sale of certain new jet Fighters to Egypt in the last few years due to concerns over Egyptian relations with Israel, and that's with a regime that's pretty pro-western. Imagine one that was far less friendly.

And any Government has the right to do that, to cut aid and support, for any other Government that goes against their interests and objectives.

Thankfully that doesn't seem a likely result in Egypt.

I think you are right about not having the right skill pool. That's another major failure.
But that's just another lame excuse to explain inertia.

A fruit peddler can be an entrepreneur if he decides to package his goods, transform them into jam, dried fruit or fresh juice. Clean up his stall, offer some added value, any added value. He just wishes he could bring an idea to someone, get a micro credit and build his business from there.
That's how you progress from hand to mouth to actually making a living.

Badger it is WELL documented that aid goes to arms deal in this part of the world, not mention the handsome amounts deposited into swiss bank accounts, no benefit to the masses here so they could not care less

Slim, these people need inspiration to do that, not to say it wouldn't ever happen, it can and it does.

Anyone in Egypt could clean up their stall, could set up this, that and the other, but mostly didn't see the point.

IME The people of Alex seemed mostly dead inside, they slept walked through life. There seemed little point to much.

This is the first time I have seen them get off their backsides and do something! I'm impressed actually!

Mubarak is rumoured to have over 1.5 TONS of GOLD in Switzerland.

Egypt Aid is educational, wheat flour, seeds, fertilisers, training, and of course arms.

"Nobody can seriously say that the Egyptian population would swap a military regime for an islamic one. That's plain daft. Talk about Frying Pan and Fire..."

Not daft at all, actually, especially given the track record of Muslim countries following dictators and other non-democratic rule (Iran after Shah, Iraq after Saddam, even Algeria two decades ago when multi-party elections first took place).

It would be foolish to ignore the real possibility that the people of Egypt might very well elect an Islamist government that is hostile to Israel as well as to Western interests in the region.

Such is the beauty of championing democracy around the world.

Egypt is NOT Iraq, Iran or any other Arab land. Egyptians are not even Arabs.

Egyptians are faithful to whatever religion they have adopted, but when a religious regime would mean no tourists, no Sharm el Sheikh, no Gulf prices coming to party, I don't see them giving all that money up. It's well over 30% of their income.

It's possible, of course, but the people concerned in the protests are not talking in that kind of language, the vibe is not coming through like that.

Badgers, re "Turkey invaded Cyprus in the 70s."

Excuse me, but I feel that you ignore the 15+ years that preceded this date, which culminated with the junta coming to power in Greece and openly declaring their intention to annex Cyprus to Greece ("Enosis") and starting the ethnic cleansing of Turks in Cyprus.

Turkey stepped in at this point to provide a safer haven for the ethnic Turks who were being massacred by the Athens-backed Greek forces. I realize that this is seen as a "bad thing" by most Europeans but it is hardly a democratic country merrily invading another just for kicks or even political gain.

"In the meantime, Nikos Sampson was declared provisional president of the new government. Sampson was a Greek ultra nationalist who was known to be fanatically anti-Turkish and had taken part in violence against Turkish civilians in earlier conflicts.[23] 'Had Turkey not intervened,' Sampson told the Greek newspaper, Eleftherotipia, on 26.02.81, 'I would not only have proclaimed Enosis but I would have annihilated the Turks in Cyprus as well.'[24]"

I'm not saying Egyptians are Arabs. What I am saying is that it is quite possible that they might elect an Islamist government in their first elections, and that saying so is not "daft" at all.

Well they have hundreds of thousands protesting on the streets right now, and the army has declared they will not use force against protesters things are against Egypt's leader. As to the government formed afterwards the protesters are divided some want an Islamic government others want a democracy there are other factions as well but right now they are focused on the common enemy.

Funnily enough Jordan's leader has just dismissed his government.....

"Excuse me, but I feel that you ignore the 15+ years that preceded this date, which culminated with the junta coming to power in Greece and openly declaring their intention to annex Cyprus to Greece"

I'm not ignoring anything, as I said in my post:

"Of course you could argue that some of those were provoked, that the "democracy" didn't really start it or that the democracy isn't really much of a democracy. But it does go to show that democracies can and will cause conflict."

So I've said that provocation could be argued.

My point was simply that modern democracies do initiate wars, I never said that they did it just for kicks.