Shit, it's really kicking off in Egypt....

[headfairy]

watching reuters footage coming in, they've got tear gas and the police are shooting protesters now. Bloody terrifying!

[methodsandmaterials]

begon, as it stands, there is no clear front runner, but I think that the most likely person to run any transitional government would be el-Baradei.

[MummieHunnie]

The Egyptions can put who ever they want into power in legitimate elections, it is their country.

[BadgersPaws]

"It is a completely incorrect notion, but understandable nonetheless."

Religion may not have had very much to do with the current situation, though it's part in the wars with Israel cannot be denied, it is going to play some part in what comes next.

To begin with you've got the fact that the main opposition group identify themselves by their faith, the Muslim Brotherhood, rather than their politics.

And then there is the "fear", however slight, of a fundamentalist Government.

[MummieHunnie]

Why are people so fearfull of the main party that may or may not be voted in? I understand they have been tollerated so far and have stood as Independants in elections previously. Does anyone know the policies of the Muslin Brotherhood? They may make a fantastic government for all we know! Egyptions rely a great deal on touism and I can't see any new government wanting to do anything to upset that large income into the country.

[MummieHunnie]

The Egyptian wars with Israel were over the Siani pensular, which Egypt has. Israle has said they want to continue peace with Egypt.

[methodsandmaterials]

Badgers, I would argue that the both wars fought between Egypt and Israel were more about territory (Sinai) than religion.

[MummieHunnie]

The issue that concerns me more now that we know a bit more, is the wider issue of the middle east that MissHissy advised us of. First Tunisia, now Egypt and further middle east countries are going to do something similar, so the whole region has a possibility of destabalisation, with many consequences as a result, the short term one being oil/petrol prices for a start.

[firstforthought]

Alot of Egyptians were happy when a vice pres. was appointed they had initially thought that it was just a step for Mubarak to make before stepping down himself.
Now the general feeling is that he is playing games and his reshuffle game is a ploy which is giving him time to make plans.
The longer he is there the more time he has. This is making people nervous now. The fact that the Army didn't side with the people as was thought they would has made the people more determined.

[firstforthought]

Million man march planned for tomorrow. They are hoping to march to the presidential palace.

[methodsandmaterials]

I think most of the protesters through right through the appointment of the VP, and indeed the new cabinet. They are after complete regime change. At the end, it might be international, rather than domestic pressure that gets rid of Mubarak.
The intentions of the army are still unclear; given that they are likely to play an important role in any transitional government - it would be extremely wise of them to actively turn against their people. But who knows?

[MummieHunnie]

I don't have a problem with international pressure in this case being leaned on Mubarak, as in this case it is what the people in Egypt want. At the end of the day it is countries like the US and Europe that have put the Eyptian people in such a bad situation in the first place, from what I understand they "allowed" Mubarak to get away with things internationally that othewise he would have been condemmed for, for the price of his helping to keep regional peace.

[Aitch]

is Tallis here? i was wondering if you had maybe name-changed? hope you and dh are alright.

[Aitch]

army has announced that it will not fight its own people, and that the demands of the protesters are legitimate.

[BadgersPaws]

"Badgers, I would argue that the both wars fought between Egypt and Israel were more about territory (Sinai) than religion."

The wars were about Israel itself. The Sinai happened to be in between then and therefore strategically important, but it wasn't about the capturing of that territory for it's own sake or for expansion.

So yes I would argue that religion did play a part in the back story of these events and in turn made the peace deal a very important event and the Egyptian Government valuable.

"At the end of the day it is countries like the US and Europe that have put the Eyptian people in such a bad situation in the first place, from what I understand they "allowed" Mubarak to get away with things internationally that othewise he would have been condemmed for, for the price of his helping to keep regional peace."

Yes, he was also allowed to get away with things because he was "ours". Many Arab states fell into the Soviet sphere of influence during the cold war, Egypt did originally but then changed to the American's and at that point started receiving their aid and weapons. All manner of "bad" people were supported because they were anti-Soviet, e.g Osama Bin Laden. They were small pieces in a bigger game and exploited and taken advantage because of that.

[begonyabampot]

Does anyone think it possible that democracy will truly work in Egypt or anywhere in the Middle East?

[MummieHunnie]

I think if you look at Easter Europe as a template, you will get an idea!

[MummieHunnie]

Eastern

[LittleMissHissyFit]

Oppression will only work for a period of time.

Freedom never goes out of date.

Doesn't everyone deserve a chance to live freely?

[begonyabampot]

of course they deserve the chance - just wonder if the ME is ready yet to take that chance or if there is too much corruption. Palestine and Iran didn't fare too well.

[begonyabampot]

Or rather Gazza.

[NettleTea]

I think the whole 'Islamic' government is a red herring being bandied about by the US and their friends, as they are worried about letting Mubarak go, and losing a bit of influence over there. If the people are demanding liberty, freedom and human rights, they are hardly going to want a fundamentalist rule.
I lived in Cairo about 15 years ago, and things were bad then. I did go out, and it drove me insane. I worked in the American University, which was a relative oasis of calm in the city. My ex was from Cairo, and , yes, he bought his education and certificates. His family are still out there. The women had relative freedom back in the late 60s/early 70's - I remember his mum telling me about all the girls out in the evening and having fun, but she traveled with exH's dad, then came home after her second child was born, and everything had changed. Im guessing thats when Mubarak took over. They were dirt poor. Life was truly tough for them, and still is. I hate to think what is going on with them at this moment, as they are right down in Giza, and there has been trouble there.

[LittleMissHissyFit]

They have democracy in Iran? Since when?

They have democracy AND corruption in Latin America, the 2 can co-exist.

The Islamic threat has been the big stick to keep Mubarak in power for the last 30 years. We need to make sure this argument for preventing over 80 million people deciding who gets to lead them is muted as soon as it is raised.

Religion is the big stick to keep women under control to an extent, Culture is the cause of it, not religion, but the pious card is heavily played to justify why women can't do certain things and why they have to put up with x y or z.

My 'H' grew up in Egypt in the 70s, left at the end of the 80s, when he went back in the mid 90s, and every year or so thereafter, he was shocked at the recession of his country. The full extent of it still came as a brutal shock when we all moved there though, and as I said, he was determined to be seen as conforming. That was what upsets me the most, in that he had a chance to lead by example, not buckle and sell my life, my rights and my respect down the river. Hey ho.

As far as I can see, the people in Tahrir Square are not discussing this from a religious point of view, this is Egyptian First, not religion first, and that is a seachange tbh.

The other thing that had me literally fainting today was that people are now feeling some pride and ownership in their country.

I used to utterly despair at the lack of care, respect and thought displayed by the locals when I lived there. IT was utterly exasperating. Wherever they went, they made a mess, throwing litter everywhere, leaving it for others to walk in, sit in, trip over. Children's play areas full of cat shit, cos they CBA to keep cats off or to clean it. Even in among the splendour of the ancient Roman relics in the Roman Museum, they would flick their fag ends, toss the cigarette cellophane on the exhibits when a bin is literally only a step away.

NOW, they are picking up the litter in Tahrir Square, WHY? because for the first time in 1000s of years, they feel that Egypt belongs to them.

I don't think they will want to give it to the Brotherhood, not when that would deprive Egypt of millions of tourist dollars. cynical perhaps, but Egyptians are taught explicitly the value of a single hotel room night, and how it somehow provides money for 20,000 Egyptians in some way, shape or form

[LittleMissHissyFit]

Oh Lord begonya, they are not sending Gazza in with his fishing rod and a can of special brew?

Mubarak will be gone by the end of the day...

[Niceguy2]

I don't think Egypt will revert to a fundamentalist state. The people are not protesting because of religious issues. Their main issues are jobs and corruption.

Any move towards a fundamentalist regime will make foreign investment leave and along with it thousands upon thousands of jobs.

Whilst its true that Egyptian's have some way to go in the equality department, they have become very used to western influences thanks to the Internet, facebook, twitter etc.

So they are again unlikely to want to go the same route as the extremists in Pakistan/Afghanistan.

From what I've seen of Egypt, people there are peaceful and very moderate in their views.

[LittleMissHissyFit]

Was the Eastern Bloc any more ready to be democratic?

OK so they have issues, but it can be done. There are plenty of highly skilled, educated Egyptians, both in land and expatriates that could help in the process.

Sure it won't be easy, but they deserve a chance. They way it was, was not working for the population in any way.