I think it’s a good Q about those who are predicted and achieve grades like AAA. Their lack of A stars probably prevent them getting offers from some unis and the ones with AAA as their standard offer will often take a couple of grades below. Some of those will still have a majority with AAA but some might have a majority with significantly below.
I suppose everyone wants to feel they are learning with a similar cohort and are where they ‘deserve’. It’s also true that there is always a range of abilities. And actually, on most courses it won’t matter that much if at all. Some courses need to have the vast majority of students at a certain level to be able to work at the pace and depth they wish to go at. For those, scraping in, especially if also having a combination of being a lazy worker and the scraped grade being a lucky outcome, isn’t necessarily great.
Work ethics do vary a lot. The reality is that a lot of A level students don’t work very hard and continue to coast in their degrees. There are the odd posters in MN who back their kids who have been lazy at GCSE and A Level and ‘underperformed’ in these and want them to get access to a top course and find a way to wriggle in. Even them, some are already gearing up to argue the case for them when they fail the first year or subsequent years. Some seem to think that either paying ir pushing must mean you can always get what you want and find it hard to believe that it’s not always possible or shouldn’t be. Without a doubt there’s some scope for gaming the system and those ‘in the know’ can access better opportunities by knowing where to apply and which places might accept lower grades and where it might be possible to trade up to in Clearing. And I agree that some families will feel less daunted by taking risks with expensive accommodation which might be needed via Clearing or simply in being flexible about a place they haven’t visited…if they know it by reputation.
I suppose good advice is to recognise yr12 and predicted grades are extremely important. Getting the best PG opens the doors to offers. Sometimes the AAA student might get an offer from a top tier place with a slightly tweaked course title - so History with Anclient History instead of straight History. Not everyone can be top tier. It’s a numbers game and the AAA candidates are v good but there are large numbers with A star including all A star too. They can’t all be lawyers in magic circle firms. But they will all find their way and hard work and planning and boosting their cv will all help. Those who push themselves and are personable and build their experience which is relevant to the job market and interpersonal skills will all have advantages.