I think that clearing places for UK students don’t really become clear until the week before results when unis receive A Level results. What is shown now can change multiple times. Sometimes they are posting places speculatively…just to see who comes along and test the waters. The fact places are mentioned doesn’t mean any individual at this point will receive them - anyone enquiring could be added to a list and told to wait until A level results day. Durham often do this on results day too with Clearibg candidates or near-misses - they don’t give an immediate answer but assess the overall picture and choose, letting people know over the next few days.
Re History at Durham, I’ve known people in the last 3 years not receive offers who met the standard offer requirement. On Student Room each year, students express surprise that as 3 x A star applicants they don’t always get an offer but know of others with a slightly lower grade profile who did.
The thing is, we rarely know the full story. Some applicants might receive contextual consideration. Sometimes the PS really is considered dnd might outweigh A level predictions. GCSE profile can be factored in. It is quite likely that many unis use algorithms to decide offers and some will be giving them to a range of PGs as this might suggest a better acceptance rate than purely offering to only the very top applicants.
The difficulty is there is significant lack of transparency. Unis are working in this weird recruitment system of predicted grades (notoriously unreliable) and a control on fees they can charge, and results coming out followed by a very frantic and short second application cycle via Clearing, where filling and having bums on seats is absolutely vital. The standard offer they advertise to the main application cycle needs to draw enough applicants in, but also maintain an image of selectivity. And then they often don’t know until April how many will firm, but sure and reject. It’s v tricky. And then they don’t know how many will miss their grades or just drop out of the process. They are trying to cover all bases….gearing up Clearing, in ca see they need to use it. Most places would rather fill with near misses than risk Clearing, where candidates may receive multiple offers and go elsewhere.
The Clearing market is changing. It’s becoming bigger as people realise they can trade up and that often very different grades are accepted in Clearing. Advertising of places is certainly moving earlier as more unis need to use it to fill or at least prepare to use it. It’s stressful for students and the unis, but a function of low funding which is fixed by government, declining international numbers, rising costs and the problems of pre-grade application. But none of these have easy solutions.