Law at which? 2

[stubiff]

So, following on from https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/higher_education/5243884-law-at-which.

Going back a few months DS thought predictions would be AAA, hence talking about York, Exeter, etc.

We've just had parents evening and predictions are AStar, A, A, so that could bring others into it. You may say that's a good thing (I think it is for having a higher chance of getting an offer from the AAAs) but I'm not so sure it's good to now look at the AStar, A, A places.

So, not interested in London. Has said we would do the LNAT but knows nothing about it, yet.

That brings in Durham (LNAT), Bristol (LNAT), Warwick and Manchester, all at AStar, A, A. Leeds was that for 2025, but for 2026 it is now AAA (so it's in that pot now).

Looking at rough acceptance rates and what is used in the offer criteria (e.g. 40% LNAT, 40% A-levels, 20% GCSEs, and GCSE profile of majority 7+ (he doesn't have)), then I think DS would have <10% chance of an offer. If successful and went, then he would probably be at the lower end (ability-wise).

Therefore, is it actually worth looking at these places?

@stubiff I’m still a bit mystified. Look at the 3 A star offer rate at Bristol and then at Durham! These two are top law schools but these figures seem very odd to me. Also Durham nearly 87%. So who gets the other offers? Warwick is closer to Bristol so looks to mop up those who are swerving LNAT but still has many offers to A star x 3 students. Durham definitely looks odd as, like Bristol, it’s a top choice after Oxbridge.

@TizerorFizz !!
So, you've done the same thing as before - assumed the %'s are how the total number of offers are spread across the grades.
As mentioned again in the last post, they are offer rates for each standalone grade profile, and won't add up to 100%.
For clarity, offer rate is the chance of an individual DC getting an offer if they have that predicted set of grades (all other things being equal, which we know they aren't).
What you are talking about is the 'offer allocation proportion' (should we say), how the total number of offers are split across each of those grade profiles, and will add up to 100% if all grade profiles are included.

Using an extreme example.
500 applicants, 100 offers.
2 of those applicants have AAA, one gets an offer.
Offer rate is 50% (1/2) and Offer Allocation Proportion (for AAA) is 1% (1/100).
Totally different things.

DS (and I) are interested in the offer rate (at this stage), i.e. what is the rough chance of getting an offer for a AStar AA tariff with AStar AA predicted.

So, seeing I am a nice person (!), here are the Offer Allocation Proportions.
I have only included the 3 main tariffs so they won't quite add up to 100% (!).

In order of Durham, Bristol, Warwick -
3 AStar 47.8% 60.2% 50.1%
2 AStar 30.4% 24.3% 28.3%
1 AStar 19.6% 13.9% 15.9%

For info, the former two have roughly the same number of applicants and offers, but Warwick has significantly more (of both), as you might expect as it doesn't need the LNAT.

Make of that what you will.
Looks like Durham puts less emphasis on 3 A Star, both offer rate (36.1% from previous) and Proportion of 47.8%, compared to Bristol at least.
We know that the Bristol criteria is 20% GCSE, and 40% each A-levels and LNAT. Maybe Durham places more emphasis on LNAT (and that is less influenced by prior attainment) and PS.
Who knows.

As said - not really an issue for DS!

I’ve found the stats interesting. Durham has more emphasis on LNAT essay so that may go towards explaining difference.
What lots don’t appreciate is that required entry grades are minimum and those just meeting have a low chance of an offer. I’m on wiwikau on facebook and see many bemused posts as to why dc has no offers from top law courses.

@stubiff No I have not added them up but the offer rates at A star X 3 are very different. Not knowing the number of applicants makes a difference so the % quoted for each university could be meaningless!

@TizerorFizz

Durham (at 3 AStar) 305 applicants, 110 offers.
Bristol 225 applicants, 156 offers.
Warwick 358 applicants, 211 offers.

So first two are not too dissimilar. As Cake suggests maybe it's down to less tangible things.
Anyway...

@stubiff LNAT. They don’t interview. Or not A levels they think are suitable for the course. It’s interesting the LNAT universities have fewer 3 a star applicants. However your dc is avoiding them so it’s of interest to others.

The 3 x Astar applicants will use Warwick as a none LNAT option just in case LNAT score isn’t high enough to get offers from their other LNAT choices. Usually advice is to have a couple of none LNAT choices.

@Cakeandusername. Yes. I’m sure that’s good advice. LNAT has spread in recent years though.

It’s very important to be strategic as it’s easy to end up with no offers for law. Some schools offer no or no useful advice with law applications.
So yp is predicted 3 x AStar and sits LNAT.
They apply for say Cambridge, UCL, Durham, Warwick and Exeter (so 3 lnat, 2 none lnat)
If LNAT score good but not stellar than will wipe out chances with the 3 LNAT choices. It’s a frustrating system that you only get multiple choice score in February after university application deadline.
On the stats above they aren’t guaranteed a Warwick offer even with 3 x Astar. So that leaves a very academic DC with potentially just one offer from Exeter and often a very bemused parent.

@Cakeandusername Yes. Warwick (last year) offered to 211 out of 358 applicants with 3 AStars. So, a smidge under 3 in 5 got an offer, and those offers (only!) made up 50% of all the offers.
So, what happened to the other 147 - poor GCSE profile (poss deemed over-predicted A-levels unless mitigating circumstances), poor PS, poor reference (!), something else or any combination.
Their criteria - "we review the whole academic profile (and from Ucas form). Successful applicants will have a strong set of achieved GCSE grades or equivalent including the majority at grade 7(A) and 8/9 (A*) as well as strong predicted grades.".
They obv think that some 2 AStar and a number of 1 AStar have more going for them, even though lower grade profile.
I wonder if subject mix also comes into it (possibly subconsciously).
The only thing I can see is "Breadth of subjects is valued by our selectors and therefore subjects with significantly overlapping curricula should be avoided where possible, for example Accounting and Business Studies for Warwick Business School courses.".

It is certainly very complicated. On institutions one of my 4 lawyer children went to Nottingham and did like that university (as said above other 3 went to Bristol).

We didn’t look at Warwick as my dd wanted a large city. It’s probably a combo of factors mentioned, there’s also the fact Warwick accept a large percentage from overseas on law course.
I do think some people just assume an Astar x 3 candidate will get an offer - I think it’s AStarAA entry and are blindsided when rejected.
Nottingham is very oversubscribed as it has a decent reputation for law and none LNAT. Saw several bemused posts where the uni had offered criminology instead of law this year.
Exeter seems to deal with their popularity for law by having a very large entry, think it’s 600 a year.

So, more chats had!
Current thinking is Exeter and Sheffield (open days done), and Warwick, Leeds and Lancaster (open days to do).
Hopefully all are ok in some fashion and they make up the 5 and we can put it to bed for a bit!

Thanks very much to all who have contributed to the various Law chats over the last 6 months or so.

Application in 2 weeks ago - Warwick, Leeds, Exeter, Sheffield and Lancaster.
Has offers from all but Warwick.

For those looking at Exeter and/or Lancaster, their offer is also one grade below standard if you firm them. Obv don’t know if this is their norm, norm for Law or because of the predicted grades (one AStar).

Excellent got 4 back so quickly.
Where is his preferred?

@Cakeandusername
Just Exeter, so will do some more digging at the offer holder days.

Looking at the first wave of Solicitor Apprenticeships now!

How’s your DC getting on?

For those looking at Exeter and/or Lancaster, their offer is also one grade below standard if you firm them. Obv don’t know if this is their norm, norm for Law or because of the predicted grades (one AStar).

My DD also got an offer last year one grade below if she made them her firm (Lancaster). I can't remember what her predictions were but I'm pretty sure she didn't make the offer and they still let her in! But it was a linguistics joint degree with Spanish and as we know Unis are really struggling to recruit students for MFL courses so that may have made them more lenient. Lancaster isn't even offering her joint course for 2026 so this year's clearing offers are meaningless for DD's subject.

Good luck with the apprenticeship applications, my colleague’s dd secured a Solicitor apprenticeship with a large regional firm at 19. Strong academics plus paid working history i.e ability to juggle work and study seemed key. She’s really enjoying it, does criminal law.
My dc is yr2 it’s land law this semester she’s not loving but otherwise enjoying life,

What year was that? 2024 there was a champagne reception held in the gardens of the faculty buildings.

@stubiff

Here is the updated 2026 apprenticeship list and some other useful links

https://www.legalcheek.com/the-solicitor-apprenticeship-most-list/

https://www.legalcheek.com/2025/10/thinking-about-a-solicitor-apprenticeship-your-go-to-guide-to-life-at-40-top-law-firms-is-here/

https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/career-advice/becoming-a-solicitor/qualifying-without-a-degree/apprenticeships

@Spirallingdownwards
Yes, the LegalCheek list is a starting point, and we’ve used it, but is not complete, e.g. DLA Piper isn’t in it. There are loads of local options to look at as well.