Sendsummer, not meaning to be argumentative but if you were facing the levels of competition that, say HaffDonga's DC is facing for the local F3 position, and knowing that competition levels are similar elsewhere, what would you do?
Especially if you know that plenty of those candidates will have those extra points (research etc) that you don't have.
Underlying any stats are behaviours.
DD's original plan was to do things one at a time. Select (she got her first choice) a demanding set of rotations and gain good experience. Then take an F3 and focus on her training application. The F3 is not happening. There are two posts in her preferred speciality where she is, and an expectation that as well as local applicants from her year and previous years and applicants from elsewhere in the UK, there will be applicants from overseas with very polished applications. The only realistic options seem to be to apply overseas or to join Lovecats DC as a bank locum working zero hours covering for staff absences.
I assume Mumsneed's DD has similar thinking. It is an approach being used by DDs close friend who is finding her F2 placements surprisingly quiet. She has had a crack at her speciality training exams, as much for the experience as any hope of success. She too will then apply to Australia.
You talk about applicants with excellent portfolios and high point scores. By and large those with high points scores will do fine. Their applications will score highly, so it will be worth their time applying for F3 positions. When they get to interview they will have a real advantage over overseas applicants. In fairness some are impressively dedicated, managing demanding jobs with lots of super-curricular, effectively from the start of medical school (often with doctor parents who knew what was required or on one of the six year courses where research is more naturally encouraged and supported.) Others in their experience will have been quite focussed, and prioritising their own CV building over supporting group needs.
But we are not talking about the superstars. Our DC are good doctors who passed their exams first time, are well regarded by their colleagues and get strong appraisals. They don't want to run hospitals or become professors. They are happy to work in less popular Trusts.
The immediate problem is that, with worldwide access, the competition for F3 posts has gone through the roof and so the option of spending a year or two preparing and application for training whilst gaining useful experience is no longer there. At least for good but ordinary applicants.
What would you suggest those without high levels of points do when they finish F2?
A local shopkeeper has four children of whom he, as a refugee himself, he is extremely proud. One is a doctor and doing very well. I enjoy him telling me about the son's progress, though it scares me slightly. This son is now in a good training position, after winning completions all over the world and all sorts of other achievements. The son decided at the start of medical school that he would not take any holiday until he had got his career established, ie until he was in a Registrar position. Culturally he is expected to live at home, and will do so until he marries. DD could doubtless achieve the same if she had dedicated herself in a similar fashion. Given how pressured the NHS is, there also needs to be space for those who want a reasonable (still long hours and plenty of studying) work life balance.