University choices - the best of the 'rest'

[SlightlyJaded]

I was on the A level results thread last year and anyone who was on it will have seen our experience. DD predicted all As was completely blindsided by terrible results. We were all shocked as was her school. As a result, she missed her first choice and her insurance choice - it was bloody awful and clearing was a very much a scramble. She is ok-ish now, but still hurting and feeling the fallout...

DS is in his A level year now and we've done a few Uni tours and he is trying to get focussed on his UCAS, finishing his personal statement and whatnot. But having witnessed what his sister went through, he is wondering about going for a much 'easier' insurance option than she did. Her choices needed AAA (first) and AAB (insurance) and he is now saying he doesn't want to be aspirational at all with his insurance as he'd rather know he had something if he fucks up.

I don't think he will fuck up, but I sort of get his logic. He is leaning towards a solid/Russell Group first choice that will need AAA/AAB and then one of the city 'second' tier options: MMU / Nottingham Trent / Leeds Beckett etc. He is keen to do Northern City but not wedded to it.

Is this a silly idea? From experience, he would be more likely to get one of these in clearing I think so maybe should stick with more aspirational for insurance? But again, he doesn't like uncertainty so I get where he is coming from.

His predicted grades are still moving a bit but broadly AAB - possibly ABB. He is smart but not A A A* academic.

I want to advise him well but just not sure. And if anyone has good experience/recommendations of that second tier, I'd love to hear them? I don't mean the non-RG ones that everyone knows are amazing: St Andrews etc, more the genuinely 'lesser regarded' ones that are still pretty good.

Thank you!

@SlightlyJaded although my DD is obviously bright, she's not a massively academic all-rounder. She's chosen A level subjects very wisely and has worked incredibly hard to get great predicted grades, but inside she doesn't feel like some of the geniuses around her and is having a bit of a wobble regarding uni choices. Hence we find ourselves in the same predicament as you.

If you can get to Nottingham I'm sure your son would find it worthwhile. As @Hiji has mentioned, it really is the most beautiful of campuses. The staff and current students were among the most welcoming and helpful too. Although it's still an AAB (ABB with EPQ) so hardly lower tier! I am comforted to hear the likes of Nottingham, Leeds, maybe Sheffield are sometimes open to accepting slightly lower grades on the day though.

Keep us posted if you find any other (must be northern according to DD!) options similar to Liverpool as a back-up. I wish your son well in the coming year.

@thedefinitionofmadness can you elaborate what you mean by 'published offers'.

Did your DS1 apply for unis with admission grades (the ones they publish on their websites) higher than his predicted grades?

OR

Did he apply for unis with admission grades at or lower than his predicted grades and he got conditional offers from those unis at or below his predicted grades but they still let him in even though on results day his actual grades were lower than the ones stated on the conditional offer?

@Juja, I am guessing that your DC2 applied with predicted grades of AAB? Was he/she contextual?

By having a couple of aspirational places, are you suggesting to apply with predicted grades that are lower than the grades which the uni is asking for on their website?

I am curious because DS' school said he should not apply for any unis where the asking grade is higher than his predicted grades. His predicted grades are the ceiling, end of. DS is not contextual.

He had his A levels before applying. He applied to 4 Unis where their published admission grades were 1-2 grades higher, all RG (though I think that's just bollocks/PR really) and well ranked for the subject; and one exactly the same, which he would have been happy to go to. Got 5 unconditional offers. Has chosen the one with the highest published offer and one we both thought was a bit of a risk.

Universities also know, I suppose, the optimism of predicted grades.

@Juja conventional wisdom is - one or two spots for places just over predicted, two or three at predicted, and a banker. Is this blanket advice from your DCs school? I think there's a bit of your gut instinct in play too, have they boosted the predicteds?

To take the pressure off, my friend's daughter applied for a course that had a foundation year. When she got her results she was told she didn't need to do the foundation year. Is that an option?

Just to say, OP, Lancaster is not the tier below those other unis you mention.

History isn't especially difficult to get offers for and the required grades for all but Oxbridge and Durham aren't mega high (it's a different landscape from eg psychology for offers). Lancaster is as competitive to get into as Manchester and probably more 'desirable' for history than Liverpool and about the same as Nottingham.

On the 'aspirational grades, I have always taken that to mean ones which equal UCAS predictions, which are generally optimistic. I have never understood why students put down unis asking for grades they have never achieved.

But, as I said before, I don't think the insurance should be too low - because it will end up being a place he doesn't much want to go. I'd be looking at a range of AAB/ABB to BBB. Loads of choice for history in that ballpark. My DS applied to uni with predictions of A star A star A. He applied to one uni which required an A star (that was the highest tariff for his subject anywhere so he wasn't lacking ambition) and the others for his subject combo were all AAB (actually his EPQ reduced them to ABB).

Btw, in The Times Good University Guide yesterday, Leicester was top 10 for history (as was Aston!). This is significantly ahead of many of the unis mentioned on this thread. Might be worth a look.

I know league tables don't always mean much but The Times has some interesting metrics.

BTW also top 20 ish was Lincoln.

For reference , for history, of the lower tariff unis:

Aston 8th (but it does have n/a for some data so I'd be tempted to ignore that one)
Leicester 10 =
Lincoln 24= (with Lancaster!)
UEA 26 = (with Leeds!)
Hull 30

These are all higher than plenty of RGs, notably Cardiff and Liverpool (and Edinburgh..) and Newcastle is way down at 61st. The top 20 or so are mainly your AAA - ABB unis.

For comparison, Manchester Met on this table is 51st and NTU 50th.

You could really land a pretty good history course with some canny selection.

@blueshoes sorry if I confused you. My point wasn't about the specifics of my DC's grades it was simply to say that actual UCAS offers don't always match what Unis put on their websites. They can be above or below. So in my DC's case what they thought would be a safe bet insurance - Newcastle - offered higher than Bristol which is considered harder to get into for their subject. Newcastle offered higher than what was on their website and Bristol offered lower than their website standard offer. (DC wasn't contextual.)

I used the word aspirational to refer to unis in two ways:

1. Unis which are very competitive as demand exceeds supply. You may well not get an offer even if you have predictions (or grades in hand) equal or above their stated website offer (e.g. Oxford, Durham, Edinburgh, LSE, Imperial).

2. Where the website offer / actual offered grades match your DC's predicted offers. See @Piggywaspushed above - most predicted offers from schools are what your DC will achieve on a good day and research shows the majority of predicted grades are wrong. Quite often our DC exceed their prediction in one subject and are lower in another so UCAS points may be the same but competitive Unis tend to stick to grades offered.

@thedefinitionofmadness you also used aspirational for a third category - choices where the Uni's stated offer exceeds DC's predictions - I have a low risk threshold so wouldn't want DC to firm an offer higher than predicted grades but agree some unis make offers lower than what they put on their website. I think you can look this up.

An example of 2) is my DN applied for Unis that all offered AAA. They ended up with A star A B. Both their firm and insurance rejected her. She ended up in clearing. Happy ending as she is loves where she is but it was a traumatic time losing unis and accommodation.

An example of 1) is my DC didn't get an offer from Edinburgh but did get identical offers from her two other aspirational choices but it was impossible to predict in advance which would give her an offer (if any). And no point, in my view, holding firm and insurance offers with identical grades. Yes sometimes unis will accept you with lower grades than what you achieve but that is a gamble which didn't pay off for DN.

I hope that makes more sense - it is all a bit of a minefield. As @thedefinitionofmadness says spreading your risk is the most important thing and ensuring they really like the Uni choice which is likely to offer lower grades than their predicted grades so they can go into A Levels relaxed and positive about their future.

You never know what can go wrong. My DC by mistake wore a watch into an exam and it was removed half way through and they were told they might get no marks for that paper at all. Fortunately as it wasn't a smart watch the exam board let it pass (her school reported it) but it threw them off their stride for the rest of the exam and they didn't wear a watch for the next 9 months.

Sorry for such a long post!!!

I do think look at UCAS data on the University published grade offer in relation to what the entry most commonly was (bearing in mind if this data includes say ancient or American history which are generally lower). There are also niche courses such as military history at Salford that are popular for being a little different or Hull for its politics and history course and links to parliament.

Also the universities not in clearing are sometimes those that did take a dropped grade or two. These universities took those that applied and dropped grades rather than enter clearing. Some AAA will fill their places on results day with those achieving AAA, but others drop to ABB to fill from those who had an offer.
It absolutely varies by subject on this, but currently History isn't as popular as say Psychology, so there is more wiggle room on the published offer to actual entry grades.

Some, such as Warwick this year, were in clearing this year only for a couple of days for History at AAB-ABB- which is well below their AAA offer- so scooped up say those who missed their Oxbridge/Durham offers. For economics or maths courses Warwick was not accepting dropped grades, therefore it is really important to look at popularity of the particular subject at that University.

For what it's worth my dd was offered 2 grades below the published offer for Durham - not contextual- for a course that was less popular at the time there (not History!), but now seems to be very popular, therefore historic data can be mis -leading. We are still puzzled as to why she received a great offer, ,but her personal statement was really interesting and different as she didn't follow any model answers -so perhaps it was this. For her subject York accepted dropped grades.
Nottingham was the standout this year as accepting below published offer, but it may be different next year.

I wouldn't aim too low but be strategic. Your predicted grades are usually your best case scenario. Where offers high but accepts dropped grades for history? Where is a good uni but not so popular for history as other subjects or its location makes it less desirable generally? It is really important to look at the particular course as well as it does differ.

When we looked at Nottingham history in the last year it was 100% coursework assessed (some courses moved to this in Covid times and haven't moved back) -so taking students who aren't great in exam pressure and dropped grades, but this style of degree assessment favours their strengths.
Also worth bearing in mind where is cutting History department staff, as it does seem to be a subject that has been targeted for this in the recent university cost cutting.

Looking around on open days and asking questions of the students in the department currently can really make a difference to knowing where to put down strategically.

@Juja, I am eternally grateful that you took the time to explain the nuances of 'aspirational'. What you wrote made a lot of sense. It was not a long post in my view. It was exactly the precision and detail that ds needs to put himself in the best possible position.

If there is a role of UCAS coach, especially for 'normal' students who need more help to navigate the complexities, I would nominate you and many of the wise mnetters on this thread. It is a bit crazy IMO to expect parents and students, many of whom are going through this for the first time and staking a lot of money on their uni choice and their dcs' future, to play a 4D game of Risk and Strategy on imperfect information, the rules of which are unwritten, inconsistent and vary from university to university, course to course and year to year.

I feel for my ds, who is already disappointed in himself for not doing better in his predicted grades and resits. He has to majorly reset his expectations as he is considering unis as aspirational which his 'clever' friends put down as insurance. In the meantime, we are like a trader who is forced to play arbitrage and gamble on the thinnest of margins.

Sorry to sound a bit woe is me. I am sure ds will come through after he gets over this academic hurdle.

"Nottingham was the standout this year as accepting below published offer, but it may be different next year."

@RainingCatsandDogs how do you know this information and how can I find out for other unis? Nottingham is my ds' first choice but they actually increased their published admission grades on their website for 2025 entry for the courses my ds was looking at.

"therefore it is really important to look at popularity of the particular subject at that University."

How do you find out how popular a course is at a particular university?

Also, generally how do you find out which courses go into Clearing at this point? I can see some lower ranked unis still have courses in clearing but that higher ranked ones like Nottingham have filled their places by now.

Not just asking RainingCatsandDogs but anyone who knows. I feel like I have to learn how to read tea leaves.

DS had Strathclyde as his fallback option, at BBB. We looked around and really liked it, and access was pretty easy as it is walking distance from Glasgow station.

The only way to know what has been in Clearing, is to look at Clearing around results day. The most popular courses which make it into Clearing are often only there for a day or so and unless you see them at that point, you won’t know - by looking you can see the published grades they are accepting (might possibly take a grade lower later in clearing ) but cannot see how many places are available. It could be one or two. It could be lots. Many have gone by 10am on Results day.

It’s too late for some people if their kids are in yr 13, but lots like to look on results day when their DC is in yr12 and screen shot or note down what’s available and at what grades. People sometimes track it over several days to see how quickly things go.

The other way to get a sense of it is from old MN threads about results day or similar in The Student Room.

A top tip is to ensure your DC is on UCAS at 8am when it updates with whether unis have accepted or declined and also to make sure you can collect your actual A Level results as early as possible. Don’t be away on holiday. Unis will start taking calls for Clearing places for ALevel students from 8am which is when results can be released by schools and colleges. The most popular places will be gone extremely quickly, so it’s no good still being in bed at 9am and drifting into school to collect results at 10.30 or later. It really is the early bird that catches the worm on results day.

Students need to have a Plan B and C. They need to have contact details of unis noted down, if possible module results (gathered from school or college on results day) and be ready to leap into action on the phones as soon after 8am as possible. Some students are totally thrown by missing their grades and have zero plan and spend a few days getting to grips with what’s happened. Whilst it’s no good rushing into an alternative you wont want, it’s also necessary to think about that scenario as a possibility before results day and have a plan, not go to ground too wail in their bedrooms.

Most schools and colleges seem to release results at 8am in person to students or/and via an electronic portal. This is what they need. Anywhere that only releases them much later is doing their students a real dis-service, and if it looks like that’s the plan, I’d be talking to the Head of Sixth Form about it as a real problem.

The other thing to kniw, is that cLearing starts in early Aug for students who did IB or other qualifications. Those who miss their offers usually have to wait until A Level results day when the uni can see the full field and decide if they will accept lower grades. But from then, the Clearing picture starts to emerge. In the couple of days before results day, Unis gave the results and are number crunching. Their websites start updating and by the evening before results day, some of what will be available will be there to see with grades, and others from v early on results day morning, before results come out. So lots of info can be gathered at that point. Most students won’t be looking at it forensic detail,,,but some parents and advisors in some schools will be.

The situation does change year to year, but it is clear that even popular courses at top places can appear in Clearing briefly.

For anyone who has gone for a mid-range place and met their offer, a definite thing to consider before results day, is if they do better than expected or even achieve their offer (most don’t, but some do) then will they consider looking at Clearing, where they might snap up a ‘bargain’ and get to a higher ranked course with their grades. Most students who meet their offer don’t do this and do t even look at Clearing as they are so relieved to be into their choice, but the point is, real ‘bargains’ exist which are well below the standard and publicised offer. But of course this involves deviating from the planned course and uncertainties about accommodation etc which won’t be for everyone, but for some who feel they can be flexible, it’s another, increasingly used opportunity to get a better place, at the grades that in reality they are accepting.

I can tell you that there were zero Sports Science or Psychology courses in clearing at the top 8 or 10 for the subject according to the CUG, as I was looking very carefully at 8am on results day!

My knowledge is just from looking at what was in clearing this year for History in case my ds missed his offers. Nottingham had lots of courses available generally. Talking to current students on open days you could ask?

It's difficult as no one tends to say if their child got in on missed grades. Wiwikau on Facebook search engine gives some back info from parents and you can try asking the question for specific courses/universities

I agree @WombatChocolate - lots of prep in the days before.
Some unis will tell you whats in clearing on the evening before.
Other unis ask your to reg and they will email you at 8am.
And others just update at 8am.

Can be misleading as some clearing places are only open to international students.

I would have a few mobiles to hand and phone numbers ready to be calling your shortlist simultaneously -- as some will take and 1hr to get through on the phone.

Some are an online form - so could have cut and paste details to hand - EPQ can swing it so dont forget to mention.

Its a logistical operation. Often the DC are spun out and so thats when parents come into the fore as the support crew. Dont let them feel panicked - they just need to secure something and they can then in the following weeks decide if its what they want or not - they are not committed. Something else might come up or they may be in a re-mark situation or they decide to take a year out or change direction.

I only had to do it the once but with the other 3 I had done all the prep and ensured DC knew how the day could go.

@WombatChocolate and @Hiji that is so useful so thank you for explaining in such detail.

It sounds like a scrum on clearing. Good point about trading up and exploding clearing slots at higher ranked unis - hope springs eternal for my ds at 8 am on results day.

As for intense prep ahead and logistical support on that day, that sounds bonkers but we are so going to do it. These inside tips are simply phenomenal. Casa blueshoes is going to be like an open outcry trading floor cum clearing house on results day. Will be charging our phones and laptops overnight 😁

Not top 10 but Psychology still available at Lancaster which is no 19 for Psychology in CUG

I used to teach A levels and GCSE and was a Sixth Form tutor. I noticed from many years of students applying to different Unis that Newcastle tends not to accept students who just missed their grade. Some Unis are more forgiving.

This all needs so much more transparency - its really unhelpful to have to do all this sleuthing and as ever those with access to info hold the power and its discriminatory to others.

Schools routinely publish their A level results year on year for each subject - really not beyond Unis to do the same - to have a level playing field.

The Irish system is purely on academics - no subjective PS or school ref - just the results and the colleges fill top down from the best grades. You can see going back 10 years minimum points accepted each year - so you know the factual ball park - and you can apply to up to 10 places - but it all only slots into place on results day.

Or run a system that is grades in hand as we know that 80% of predictions are proven to be wrong.

I believe I read History wasn’t as popular as it used to be. This will reduce grades required. For History, go for RG plus if you can, even for insurance. Few employers care about what exactly dc studied within a history degree. Psychology is the latest subject attracting students away from History as it’s a science. What many grads end up doing is the same as history grads when they work! So surely Sheffield, Nottingham, Liverpool, and a few non RG unis are worth a look over ex polys? Eg Surrey, Lancaster, Leicester and then decide if you like the city or not.

HE is in turmoil with most institutions scrambling to get enough students. He doesn’t need to undersell himself. Especially in an era where subjects such as history are at risk. He should go for financial stability.

There needs to be more clarity on clearing. It doesn’t really resemble the clearing of old where people scrambled for places if they’d missed their offers. Bridget Phillipson made it clear this year it was a buyer’s market but that information won’t have filtered through to every student and as a result people stuck to their existing places rather than upgrade. I can understand some people become attached to their firm and insurance and there are issues with accommodation at some universities but still, it should be made clearer there is potential for movement post-results.