I’m aware this is an old thread, but coming back to the OP’s disappointment, and what will no-doubt happen to others again this year, I feel I might have some kind of possible explanation. It was mentioned on another thread and when I saw the explanation of one reason why those with the highest academic profiles and excellent PS still get rejected whilst other lower achieving (and not contextual offer) students do get offers.
Firstly, I really don’t agree that the OP’s DD wasn’t what Durham were looking for or that she was judged less strong an applicant than others. There are simply too many very strong applicants and to a degree, who gets an offer is luck. No-one wants to say that at any Uni and applicants and their families don’t want to hear it, but it’s not entirely based on ranking and meritocracy amongst non-contextual applicants.
Offers have to be made strategically. Very popular universities need to balance offering to the very strongest applicants against being sure to fill their places but not over-fill. Given candidates apply to 5 choices, many who are offered won’t accept Durham, or indeed other top courses either. In fact, those really top applicants with all 9s, all A* at A Level and excellent PS might well be the ones who don’t firm their offer. Instead they might firm Oxbridge or one if the London unis or other equivalent highly sought after places. So Durham don’t want to give all of their offers to this perhaps risky group. They also have lots of applicants from those predicted 2 A stars or 1 A star. - people who meet the standard offer or slightly over, but not much. Those candidates might not have applied to Oxbridge and might not have applied to so many or any if the other very popular places, so are actually more likely to firm their Durham offer. They might or might not get their grades in the end, but that’s the case with all applicants.
So, some of the offers have to go to slightly weaker applicants, because they give better statistics for firming and certainty about numbers. This is why some of the very top people don’t get offers whilst some of the weaker applicants do. It understandably confuses and flummoxes applicants and their parents and universities can’t really explain or state it. Some try to be transparent. Exeter speaks if a ranking system where tier one with 3 x A star are offered to first and they work down. They can do this because they will face larger numbers who say no, a smaller proportion of applicants with all A Star grades and know they will fill some places from people who achieve below their offer level anyway.
Durham cover themselves a bit by saying the PS is really important. I’m sure it does play a role, but it’s also a conveniently non-measurable, so no-one outside can rank different PS against each other and when Durham gives the reason for a late rejection as ‘weaker PS than other applicants’ there is no way of quantifying this. Other applicants who have received offers will be out there with both lower grades and weaker PS. They aren’t claiming they rank candidates and take them in order.
In my thinking, they probably have some kind of quotas for each course for the very top students and then a number of places they want to give to those who are very good but not the top, but more likely to firm and turn up. They start looking at applications and for the very popular courses give some offers to the very top students and some to the not quite so good ones and then have lots of all types still to be processed. There probably is a lament of luck in the order you are looked at. As the process moves on, students start to firm, insure and reject. At that point, they have more info about what the cite is looking like and how many firms and rejections they have in the top of top applicants and how many in the very strong but not quite top applicants. And then, in this dynamic market, they can decide which groups can have more offers and how many. At some point the places they can give,nor time deadline puts an end to it all. That’s why there are lots of last minute rejections. It isn’t that those candidates weren’t as of as those who got offers or their PS were worse than everyone else who did get an offer….there simply weren’t enough spaces and for hat ever reason, their application wasn’t one if the early ones to be assessed and an offer given.
People want a transparent and fair system and certainly for non-contextual candidates hope for some kind of meritocracy or ranking. This makes sense to people. Those rejected can understand their rejection if everyone who got an offer was stronger than them. But this isn’t the case. A complex system of data handling and processing of likely responses to offers (firm, insure, reject) as well as likelihoods if achieving offers etc has to be at play to get the numbers right.