Applying to Oxbridge for 2023 intake

[riverpebbles]

Not sure if there is already a thread on this? My son is hoping to apply to Cambridge for Computer Science for October 2023 start.

Thanks @Juja they really have covered all bases with their info!

Thanks Juja.

Some of the numbers look very curious. So, only 102 grammar school students accepted in the 2020 cycle from across the whole UK?

I'm wondering if the academy numbers are hiding quite a few grammar acceptances.

I could be wrong, very obviously, but only three to four grammar school students across each college in that cohort? I find that a bit of a stretch. If that's the case, DD4's college must be sheltering a massively disproportionate share of them!

So it would be interesting to see which of the academy students are actually from comprehensive schools and which from grammar. Well, I'd be interested anyhow.

Just take the numbers coming from QEB, an academy, for example. Or Henrietta Barnett. Or Pate's... A long list of grammars with academy status out there, including almost all of the top ones.

I'm very suspicious.

Only 74 grammar school acceptances in 2021! Not in any way credible Oxford! Who are you kidding?!

Basically, it's entirely possible that if the grammars with academy status were pushed back down into the grammar box, the stats would look markedly different.

Apologies for stating the bleeding obvious.

Also, as I say, I'm completely prepared to be told I'm wrong and that Oxford really does now hate almost all grammar school students, as Jo Kessell believes Or it could be an excellent ploy to disguise the fact that grammar school students are still bagging a very high proportion of places but Oxford is slightly reticent about putting that in black and white. It shouldn't surprise anyone that grammar school students are strongly represented, for all sorts of reasons. Indeed it would be very odd if they weren't, which is why these figures are so odd, on the face of it.

@goodbyestranger I agree and was surprised by how few grammar students appeared and wondered exactly the same - if someone has the energy they can cross check against this table which give applications / offers / acceptances by each school. Unfortunately the sort function only divides state / independent but if you sort the data by applications and look down the list and pick out grammar schools a testing of the data is possible that shows grammar school acceptances far exceeded 74 in 2021. So yes I agree lots of grammar schools probably under the "Academy " group.

e.g. for 2021 Acceptances; St Olave's-10. Judd - 9, Pate's -10, Henrietta Barnet-10, QE Barnet-11, Chelmsford-8, Latymer-9, Kendrick-6

Not surprising Grammar Schools will perform well - what would be interesting is % of applicants that are successful from non selective schools vs selective schools.

I was interested that the % of applications v acceptances is similar for state and independent schools - I wonder if that is deliberate by admissions tutors or just comes out that way? Roughly 19% across the board though I imagine variety across subjects.

So if an 11+ grammar school has a sixth form that is open to other students and has an academy status - it is considered an academy then. Even though they select in as much as requiring students to have certain grades before being allowed to take subjects?
How are Oxford then defining grammar education in this table?

I would expect that they're defining it in the way that they've concluded it will excite the least political wrath? It looks as though any grammars with academy status (which includes the top ones so the ones with the highest number of students getting offers) are filed under 'Academy' and only those who haven't opted for academy status are filed under 'Grammar'. Just my guess however. Is there an explanation of the terminology anywhere? I haven't looked - but if not, why not?!

Is there a caveat about sixth form entry anywhere OnePlusOneEquals? Academy status isn't contingent in that, so I would say the definition in the table was basically: shove evrything into 'Academy' that has academy status; go for maximum blur.

If I'm correct (and as I've said I may not be, but something is going on here) then the table is next to meaningless.

If you look at the grammar school numbers in say 2008 on the table and then look at more recent years (after grammars were converting to academy status, from 2010) you'll see a huge decline. That checks out with the assumption above. It's not transparent at all.

So Oxford quite loudly promotes that it is increasing state school acceptances year on year, but not the fact that the majority are from selective entry state schools. It may actually soon have to target increasing genuine comprehensive acceptances.

I know of a pupil who recently left a top achieving indy school (living in a top 10% decile for family income) after GCSEs to attend a local state sixth form that gets high numbers into Oxbridge to capitalise on the WP efforts. Recently applied to some WP schemes and got rejected from attending them by C but accepted by O.

It makes me think C are more serious about widening participation than O.

Also, the key figure surely is the offer rate by school type, which looks about 20% regardless of whether someone is at a state school or a private school.

My entire point was that unless one can dig down to what percentage of grammar school offerees are disguised within ‘Academy’, one can’t tell whether they are in fact hitting a far higher percentage than twenty.

Given the disproportionately high numbers of independent school applicants, I think it’s arguable that there’s more to widening participation than merely equalising percentage success.

Seems to me that above all, they want to present all the main school categories as having the same offer rate - ie. 20-21%.

Thry have got the independent school. offer rates form in line with the comprehensive offer rates. My guess is, the grammar offer rates were higher because, although selective, grammars fall under the state school banner, so were not subject to the same degree of contextualisation as selective independents. So they have blended grammar schools in with 'academies' where possible, to balance the stats for their headline figures.

Maybe next year they will contextualise grammars to the same degree as selective independents? This will be the next step in WP? Or maybe they will persist with blurring the lines with this academy status loophole?

But yes, anyone knows grammars have more successful applicants than those figures suggest.

down - not form

Grammars are subject to the same contextualisation as independents but the students may very well be brighter as a whole.

Nevertheless, because of the whole middle class bastion argument, I can see why Oxford seems to be being coy here.

I've said it before a number of times over the years, but in a sense the same degree of contextualisation is harsh on grammar school applicants, since they have to achieve what they achieve on far, far, far fewer resources. Nevertheless, a lot of the grammars give a very good education, so it hasn't been something I've ever got especially wound up about - other state school applicants have it much harder.

It seems a very good idea to look more carefully at the background data, as Cambridge suggests, to level up a bit for grammar school applicants, especially with the widening participation work at top grammars which needs recognition, and should dent the bastion thing to some extent.

May well be brighter = likely to have a higher percentage of offers.

Grammar schools vary massively though in terms of intake, as do independents. In some areas, grammars just take the top half of those who apply at 11 plus, whereas at a grammar such as Tiffin Girls in Kingston, or QEB or Latymer in Znirth London, it's more like 1 in ten. Similarly, some independents (especially in more rural places) are basically 'pay up and your kids are welcome,' but other 'top' independents in London will also have at least ten applicants for every place at 11 plus. You can't compare.

Don't all schools have to produce a profile page - stating the exam results over the last 5 years as a kind of benchmark? I've seen the one my DC school produces. For instance, if the profile says - "80% of A- level results were at A star" and an applicant has A star and two As, then it will be clear that they were not at the top end of that particular cohort.

I thought this was how contextualisation was meant to work? Its a bit pointless saying "Oh look, a grammar school" because it could be a grammar like Tiffin Girls or Latymer that always get over 90% A star / A grades or a rural grammar in Lincolnshire where there is a much lower population density and that just takes the top half locally, so only gets about 50% A star / A grades (but still better than the local secondary modern).

I think it's very easy to compare grammars and independents on all sorts of scores but obviously one has to break down the categories.

I'm not really clear what you're saying. I think the chances are that if you took all the grammar school applicants to Oxford and all the independent school applicants to Oxford you would find that the grammar school applicants had more academic merit. If only - and it won't only be this - the parent constituency at independents are far more likely to want their DC to apply to Oxford and far less likely to be told not to by the school. Paying customer and all that.

*If only - and it won't only be this - because

I'm curious to know what the real figure is for grammars, but I've never made a FOI request in my life and don't intend to start now.

Stripping out the academy status (which is frankly a ruse to obfuscate), I'm going to guess:

37% offer rate for grammars
27% independent and
26% comprehensive

for the 2021 round.

That would go down like a lead balloon politically, if correct.

I've used a very vague methodology btw :)

Obviously I meant that the independent DC is much more unlikely to be told not to waste an Oxford application than a grammar school DC is. Not the parent. But parental ambition between the two types of school - especially out of London - will vary hugely, so that matters.

It seems Cambridge stats don't recognise "academies" as such - it's comprehensive, grammar, sixth form college, FE college in their categories for maintained schools. As I remember, the acceptance rates for "grammars" and "independents" were pretty much the same (less than 1% between them). But then offer rates for sixth form colleges and comprehensives were only a couple of percent less. FE colleges had the lowest acceptance rates.