@LouisQuatorze I think your overview is accurate, whether some of the conclusions in the article are accurate is something else.
the 17% figure is against projected students, as opposed to a drop in actual students. What the article doesn’t say is whether the 17% shortfall against projected was for all UEA undergrad and postgrad, both home and international or for a specific element, eg just home undergrads.
the HESA day for UEA is quite interesting. For overall student numbers, rather than the cohort for a specific year.
At the full time undergrad level, home students 9140 back in 14/15, rose to 11045 in 18/19 and 12255 in 20/21. The 20/21 figure was an 8.4% growth / near 1,000 students compared to the year before. It then flatlined in 21/22.
international undergrads however 2205 in 14/15, peaked at 2325 in 17/18, in the following years then fell to 2170, 2105, and 1785 in 20/21, with a further fall to 1670 in 21/22. At the UK level numbers had continued to rise through to 20/21, and only fell back slightly in 21/22, though still being higher than the 19/20 figure. Given the higher fees internationals pay falling numbers not good news for UEA.
Equally taking the last few academic years UEA has had proportionately more home than international undergrads relative to the overall UK position. Again a higher proportion paying less. taking one example typically close to 30% of undergrads at Lancaster are international, UEA now nearer 10%. Overall student numbers at UEA and Lancaster broadly similar.
at postgrad level UEA had in 21/22 a 58:42 home:international split. All uk was 35:65. Taking a single more local example the split at Essex was 30:70. Not sure of the numbers trend at PG level.
The underlying picture is probably a lot more nuanced than the ST article implies.