Part of the problem for us is the timing too! We know roughly how many places we have, and we know how things were last year and the year before. What we don't know is what demand will be like in the year we're in - and at the moment, the unknowns are quite a lot higher than they were, say, 10 years ago. I don't know many heads of department who aren't a bit worried about recruitment right now. When you combine that with the fact that a lot of the top 20 universities are expanding, it leads to some genuine uncertainty about offers. I don't think anyone means to be deliberately misleading. We don't rate ourselves on our offers in that way - it's definitely not part of our PR, even though it might feel that way to applicants (you can't really imagine how insignificant the grades are by comparison to REF scores, student satisfaction scores, and what will be TEF scores in future).
With numbers down this year, I think it's worth borderline students who really fancy a higher-ranking place just going for it, to be honest.
needmore - I think you're right, it's a generational problem, a young people's problem. And that is so desperately sad. Personally, I suspect that students are being subjected to a kind of Foucauldian discipline at school (and sometimes, sadly, also at home) where they are told that they have to work really, really, really, really, really hard (and keep their noses clean) to get on in life and free themselves from the horrendous burden of debt - not only is this about peak performance, it's about a transformation of the self from within into a model, disciplined worker. That discipline is carried right through downtime too (I saw an interview with 18 year olds saying they didn't drink on a Friday night because it might affect their homework on Saturday). In actual fact, as I said, this very pressured way of being doesn't seem to translate into any additional academic performance, just into mental health issues and a sense that a lot of fun, youthful experiences are bad and wrong, leading to corrosive guilt and lack of self worth.
To add to the problem, schools (and this is the fault of the government and metricization and targets, not of teachers) are teaching to the test, and students are often really burdened with an excess of extra-curricular activities (fine if they enjoy these, not so much if they are just doing them to tick some boxes). Frankly, in spite of all this work and discipline and effort, the students we are getting are more and more lacking in some key skills that we need - daring, originality, risk-taking and creative flair especially. This isn't a fault emanating from the students themselves, who are often trying ever so hard and suffering all kinds of nervousness and burnout. The system is really letting them down. I think I speak for many academics when I say that we do NOT want to see young people treated this way, particularly as there is so little benefit to the student or society. I am fed up of seeing the suffering it creates. 