Page 7 | I don't think the Tories will do nearly as badly as predicted?

LizzieW1969 · 04/07/2024 12:50

mybeesarealive · 04/07/2024 11:22

The stuff people are saying about Corbyn is all entirely counterfactual. In general elections you have to be a lucky general. You have to deliver around 40% of the popular vote and hope that the other side fall apart. In 2017 we ended up with a hung parliament because May and Corbyn were both unlucky generals. They were unlucky, because the other side did not fall apart and both came out of the election with around 40% of the vote. It broke in favour of the Tories on that occasion in terms of seats and total votes cast. In 2019, Johnson was a lucky general because the other side fell apart (led by Corbyn). Hence Johnson's circa 40% of the vote delivered a healthy majority of MPs. You can look at every election since the war onwards and it has been thus. Wilson's tiny majority in the 70s was secured on more than 40% of the vote. You can guess why he was unlucky though. Starmer is set to be a lucky general. He is lucky that the Tories have fallen apart but he deserves credit for clinging onto his 40% of the vote.

I think the 2017 election was more about Brexit than about the party leaders. A lot of Remain voters backed Labour because they feared the kind of hard Brexit which the likes of Johnson and Rees Mogg were forcing upon us, which May was too weak to resist. (I voted for Corbyn despite the fact that I couldn't stand the man.)

LizzieW1969 · 04/07/2024 12:55

As for this election, I agree with the OP that it won't be a total wipeout, though it will hopefully be a landslide like 1997.

Payattentioninclass · 04/07/2024 13:10

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 09:38

I'd hold off on that until the popular vote figures are in.

It's entirely possible Labour will end up with a thumping majority with fewer votes that Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017, which signals utter apathy for the incumbents far more than it suggests appetite for Labour, and frankly, would be a complete and utter embarrassment for Starmer.

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I doubt that when he is sitting in No 10 as PM, having turfed out the Tories, Starmer will feel embarassed for having achieved what Corbyn failed to do twice.

However, the first past the post is an electoral system which has always been profoundly undemocratic

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 13:11

DramaLlamaBangBang · 04/07/2024 11:39

Not really. As Prime Minister, especially under our system, you need to have broad apoeal over a broad spectrum of the country, as you have to govern a country, not your own personal fanclub. Corbyn stacked up tons of votes in areas of the country where Labour was winning, and in middle-class wealthy areas of densely populated cities . Starmer has managed to get people who didn't vote Labour across the country to consider voting Labour. Share of the vote doesn't matter. No government has had over a 50% share of the vote.

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I'm not making any point at all about Starmer's legitimacy based on weight of vote.

The point I was making is simply that pulling fewer votes than Corbyn from a larger electorate would be a bit underwhelming, and a bit of an embarrassment given how desperate Starmer has been to distance himself from his predecessor.

Spin it however you like, explain it however you like, it doesn't matter. The simple fact is, that in that scenario (should it happen) fewer people bothered their arse to vote for Starmer than Corbyn.

Hardly rock n roll.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 13:12

Payattentioninclass · 04/07/2024 13:10

I doubt that when he is sitting in No 10 as PM, having turfed out the Tories, Starmer will feel embarassed for having achieved what Corbyn failed to do twice.

However, the first past the post is an electoral system which has always been profoundly undemocratic

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Of course not.

I will forever be a source of mirth for people who are amused by such things though.

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 04/07/2024 13:14

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 13:11

I'm not making any point at all about Starmer's legitimacy based on weight of vote.

The point I was making is simply that pulling fewer votes than Corbyn from a larger electorate would be a bit underwhelming, and a bit of an embarrassment given how desperate Starmer has been to distance himself from his predecessor.

Spin it however you like, explain it however you like, it doesn't matter. The simple fact is, that in that scenario (should it happen) fewer people bothered their arse to vote for Starmer than Corbyn.

Hardly rock n roll.

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Starmer will still won infinitely more votes to become PM than Sunak did...

sunshinegrey · 04/07/2024 13:16

here is what I think:

www.mumsnet.com/talk/general-election-2024/5111662-saying-goodbye-to-bad-tories

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 13:22

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 04/07/2024 13:14

Starmer will still won infinitely more votes to become PM than Sunak did...

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Well if you concede GE votes are, in part, a vote for PM, then Sunak will at least have a few by 10pm tonight. Won't save his arse though 😃

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 04/07/2024 13:28

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 04/07/2024 13:22

Well if you concede GE votes are, in part, a vote for PM, then Sunak will at least have a few by 10pm tonight. Won't save his arse though 😃

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Perhaps my post was not quite clear enough.
Sunak won exactly 0 votes to become PM.

CaveMum · 04/07/2024 13:29

The latest polls have updated, with 1 published today - electionmaps:

(2019 in brackets)
Lab 431 (200)
Con 100 (372)
Lib 68 (8)
SNP 19 (48)
PC 2 (4)
Ref 3 (0)
Grn 4 (1)

The range across the 13 collated polls is still pretty broad though:

Lab 418-516
Con 52-125
Lib 38-72
SNP 8-29
PC 2-4
Ref 0-7
Grn 0-4

Aggregating Predictions for the General Election (inglesp.github.io)

Aggregating Predictions for the General Election

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Echobelly · 04/07/2024 13:31

I think everyone knows that. They'll get over 100 seats I'm sure, but they won't win.

CyanideShake · 04/07/2024 13:55

oh no, not the supermajority I'm so worried about even though I'd never heard the term until a fortnight ago. I so scared

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 04/07/2024 14:01

CyanideShake · 04/07/2024 13:55

oh no, not the supermajority I'm so worried about even though I'd never heard the term until a fortnight ago. I so scared

Don't worry I'm told that Starmer won't really be Prime Minister if he wins fewer votes than But Jeremy Corbyn did in 2019.

HRTQueen · 04/07/2024 14:04

I am hoping Reform do not take as many Tory votes as previously predicted

Farage fucked up when he showed his bro love for Putin

I prefer to have more Tory MP's than one Reform MP, it will still be a large majority for Labour

DramaLlamaBangBang · 04/07/2024 14:06

CaveMum · 04/07/2024 13:29

The latest polls have updated, with 1 published today - electionmaps:

(2019 in brackets)
Lab 431 (200)
Con 100 (372)
Lib 68 (8)
SNP 19 (48)
PC 2 (4)
Ref 3 (0)
Grn 4 (1)

The range across the 13 collated polls is still pretty broad though:

Lab 418-516
Con 52-125
Lib 38-72
SNP 8-29
PC 2-4
Ref 0-7
Grn 0-4

Aggregating Predictions for the General Election (inglesp.github.io)

I'm jot in Scotland, but the SNP seem to be on course for quite a collapse too. Is that to Labour or Lib Dems I wonder?

nomoretoriesforme · 04/07/2024 14:25

@HRTQueen Farage will take seats whether you want to or not. Bring on tomorrow

mybeesarealive · 04/07/2024 15:34

I shall have a little tipple on hand for the exit poll at 10pm. I've heard that Tory insiders are placing bets on how long it takes Rishi to board his private jet to California. His lawyers have his green card renewal application on standby.

HRTQueen · 04/07/2024 16:29

nomoretoriesforme · 04/07/2024 14:25

@HRTQueen Farage will take seats whether you want to or not. Bring on tomorrow

yes unfortunately Reform shall win some seats

but I believe less that they could have

Payattentioninclass · 04/07/2024 16:36

mybeesarealive · 04/07/2024 15:34

I shall have a little tipple on hand for the exit poll at 10pm. I've heard that Tory insiders are placing bets on how long it takes Rishi to board his private jet to California. His lawyers have his green card renewal application on standby.

But he said he would stay as a constituency MP if re-elected. You are surely not suggesting that he was fibbing! Oh!

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 16:40

Payattentioninclass · 04/07/2024 16:36

But he said he would stay as a constituency MP if re-elected. You are surely not suggesting that he was fibbing! Oh!

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I can’t see it. Loss of status and no ministerial car, traipsing up and down the A1 - no helicopter any more, no excuse for not being a hardworking constituency MP - doesn’t feel like Sunak’s style.

Thingscanonlygetsunk · 04/07/2024 16:53

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 16:40

I can’t see it. Loss of status and no ministerial car, traipsing up and down the A1 - no helicopter any more, no excuse for not being a hardworking constituency MP - doesn’t feel like Sunak’s style.

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Lets suppose that the Tories are the opposition with 103MPs. That means that every single one of their MPs would likely need to have an additional party or parliamentary responsibility, shadow junior ministers, or committee people.

I can imagine Sunak really enjoying that!

mybeesarealive · 04/07/2024 16:55

He's rich enough not to care what we think if he quits. Though he might quite quit and just not show up for work...

mybeesarealive · 04/07/2024 16:56

Quiet not quite!

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 16:56

I can’t. He’s been Mr Big for years, he’d hate not being. I dread to think what he’d be like as LoOO. Tetchy? We ain’t seen nothing yet!

bergamotorange · 04/07/2024 16:57

Payattentioninclass · 04/07/2024 16:36

But he said he would stay as a constituency MP if re-elected. You are surely not suggesting that he was fibbing! Oh!

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There was no way he could answer the question other than to say 'of course I will stay if I win' because if he hinted he was leaving it would have been another negative story.

People are foolish to give any credance to these types of answers, journalists are annoying for asking that question in the first place.