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General election 2024

I don't think the Tories will do nearly as badly as predicted?

251 replies

Kendodd · 03/07/2024 12:17

What do you think?

OP posts:
bergamotorange · 03/07/2024 14:01

CranfordScones · 03/07/2024 13:44

Whatever you call it, the size of the government majority is important.

A very big majority means government backbenchers have almost no power to influence policy and ministers can act as unchecked dictators. That's a big issue. It's not just the opposition who hold ministers to account.

People may be gleeful at the prospect of a supermajority, but it wouldn't be good for democracy.

People who talk about a 'supermajority' have fallen for some total balloney.

The Tories do not give a shit about the size of the majority, the UK system is known to be an 'elective dictatorship' - they are just worried about their own future fortunes.

Blair had a massive majority, so did Thatcher.

Georgesbar24 · 03/07/2024 14:03

kitsuneghost · 03/07/2024 13:22

I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse

Coalitions are dreadful though. It hampers progress and change and is the worst of all worlds imo.

noblegiraffe · 03/07/2024 14:03

Kendodd · 03/07/2024 13:55

That would be great to see the LibDems or a LibDem/Green coalition for the official opposition.
Won't happen though. I reckon the Tories will win at least 200+ seats and Reform zero seats.

Why? Farage is expected to win Clacton, and Tice his seat too.

2X4B523P · 03/07/2024 14:04

I don’t think on the day they’ll fare as bad as predicted. Think support for Reform will be less than predicted and boost conservative votes, I would guess somewhere in the region of 160 seats.

SerenityNowInsanityLater · 03/07/2024 14:10

OP just to clarify, I didn’t call you a bot. I was merely pointing out that bots are doing their bit on MN. And so are you, unintentionally! 😆
No plans to report (as someone suggested). Jesus. Can’t say anything on MN without it getting all itchy and scratchy.
It was a lube joke people.

Anniegetyourgun · 03/07/2024 15:07

SerenityNowInsanityLater · 03/07/2024 14:10

OP just to clarify, I didn’t call you a bot. I was merely pointing out that bots are doing their bit on MN. And so are you, unintentionally! 😆
No plans to report (as someone suggested). Jesus. Can’t say anything on MN without it getting all itchy and scratchy.
It was a lube joke people.

I thought it was beautifully worded. Almost poetic 😄

SlothOnARope · 03/07/2024 16:27

Georgesbar24 · 03/07/2024 14:03

Coalitions are dreadful though. It hampers progress and change and is the worst of all worlds imo.

I completely disagree.

How much "progress" have we had in the past two decades under our fabulously stable and balanced two-party system?

Plenty of change but none of it good. People are now poor, unhealthy, reliant on debt or state aid, can't afford childcare, can't find good schools, unmotivated, rude, disrespectful, lazy and full of addictions.

Every system or institution you care to name is corrupt or breaking under the strain. The environment is treated like a cesspit, the UK is decades behind other European countries with eg waste disposal and green building, and doesn't even know that it is!!

Greed, waste, corruption, complacency and entrenched attitudes are what hamper progress and change.

Franzkafkascat · 03/07/2024 16:52

I agree although I don’t want it to be so.
At work today (NHS nurses) some were discussing the GE.
One, mid 30s, said she wasn’t sure where money was coming from vis a vis Labour’s plans to improve things, then said she voted how her mum did as she didn’t know much about politics.
Another, same age, said it’s such a hard choice 🙄
I would say both are aspirational northern working class, own home, car, nice holidays. Although our town has declined massively, hardly any decent shops, homeless all over etc I don’t think they’ve been massively affected by CoL crisis because we’re up north and as nurses, not that badly paid, plenty of opportunities to do bank etc. We also work in a fairly protected area (ICU) so certainly haven’t experienced the horrendous conditions on the wards so in some respects we’ve been cushioned from the affects of cuts.
In the EU referendum many of my nurses voted leave and the docs remain so really not surprised.

TomatoSandwiches · 03/07/2024 16:55

TheShellBeach · 03/07/2024 13:57

I think that Reform will win quite a lot of seats, taking them from the Tories.

I hope we don't end up with a Tory/Reform coalition.

I mean as the Opposition.

Labour will win.

Edited

That's my creeping suspicion unfortunately.

Franzkafkascat · 03/07/2024 17:14

CranfordScones · 03/07/2024 13:44

Whatever you call it, the size of the government majority is important.

A very big majority means government backbenchers have almost no power to influence policy and ministers can act as unchecked dictators. That's a big issue. It's not just the opposition who hold ministers to account.

People may be gleeful at the prospect of a supermajority, but it wouldn't be good for democracy.

I think they were pretty gleeful when they won a huge majority in 2019.

cupcaske123 · 03/07/2024 17:16

kitsuneghost · 03/07/2024 13:22

I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse

It's not possible to have a super majority in the UK. Why would you vote for more of this?

TheShellBeach · 03/07/2024 17:18

cupcaske123 · 03/07/2024 17:16

It's not possible to have a super majority in the UK. Why would you vote for more of this?

It may not technically be called a Supermajority, but essentially that's what it's going to be.

Bring it on!

Okayornot · 03/07/2024 17:22

In some respects I hope not.

I think they have become flabby, corrupt and ineffectual in government and they need to go. But a lack of effective opposition , with Labour having been so pathetic over the last 10+ years, has meant the Tories were not properly held to account and were enabled in their ineptitude.

Whatever the result this week, I really really want there to be an effective opposition. Unfortunately I don't think we will get one for a few years at least. And I desperately want my MP (Tory) to lose her seat because she gives no shits at all about this constituency, but I fear we are the safest of safe seats and the other candidates have been invisible in the last few weeks.

Babadook76 · 03/07/2024 17:22

kitsuneghost · 03/07/2024 13:22

I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse

You are voting Tory because you don’t want them? What on earth are you talking about??

CheshireCat1 · 03/07/2024 17:23

Latest poll Labour 412, Conservative 105

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:29

I think the Conservatives will do a great deal better than predicted. I also think Labour will be a one term affair.

VoteOutToHelpOut · 03/07/2024 17:32

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:29

I think the Conservatives will do a great deal better than predicted. I also think Labour will be a one term affair.

Edited

How many seats do you think the Tories will hang on to?

MadameMassiveSalad · 03/07/2024 17:32

SerenityNowInsanityLater · 03/07/2024 13:23

I think the Tory bots and supporters are smearing themselves like lubricant all over MN is what I think. You will not have my ass, no matter how much lube you’re smothering us in.

😆😆😆👏👏👏🌹🌹🌹

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:34

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:29

I think the Conservatives will do a great deal better than predicted. I also think Labour will be a one term affair.

Edited

I think over 100 maybe? It will still be a drubbing of course.

VoteOutToHelpOut · 03/07/2024 17:36

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:34

I think over 100 maybe? It will still be a drubbing of course.

Edited

I agree. I very much doubt they will get under 100 seats. However much I wish it!

Champagnesocialismo · 03/07/2024 17:40

CheshireCat1 · 03/07/2024 17:23

Latest poll Labour 412, Conservative 105

I don’t mind this. But if the Conservatives came third it would be much better

Champagnesocialismo · 03/07/2024 17:42

ActivePeony · 03/07/2024 17:29

I think the Conservatives will do a great deal better than predicted. I also think Labour will be a one term affair.

Edited

You mean you want this; wishing something is going to happen isn’t the same. Looks more like a Labour decade if the polls are right

BishyBarnyBee · 03/07/2024 17:48

kitsuneghost · 03/07/2024 13:22

I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse

Not sure why the Tories having a super majority was fine and Labour having one is a disaster.

Look at their track records. Anyone voting Tory tomorrow must live an incredibly privileged life to not care about the decimation of public services under this self-serving shower of incompetents.

Takoneko · 03/07/2024 18:02

The YouGov MRP today predicted 102 seats for the Tories, More in Common are predicting 126. That feels more realistic to me than the 60-70 seat figures that Survation and Electoral Calculus predicted over the last few days. I think the result will end up in the confidence window for most of the polls but I dare not hope that they will end up below 100 seats.

Abhannmor · 03/07/2024 18:03

kitsuneghost · 03/07/2024 13:22

I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse

Oh great. If there's a few million like you , Rishi can cancel the move to California. The rest of us can cancel the champagne 🥂. Bottle of gin will have to do....

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