I don't think the Tories will do nearly as badly as predicted?

[Kendodd]

What do you think?

Not sure how you got to this conclusion but you do you.

Yes I think 120 would be more like it tbh.

They’re toast.

@ActivePeony I’d be delighted to be proven wrong, but some of the really low predictions just feel too good to be true.

Well depending on your politics I guess but yes I agree that they are too low. Lots of undecided voters out there too.

Labour need a decent majority to turn things around and the Lib Dems would make a far better opposition than the Conservatives.

How would it be worse? What could they do with a supermajority that they wouldn't be able to do with a regular majority?

Conservatives will only go through a process of introspection if they fail and are seen to fail. After all the lies and corruption they don't deserve any sympathy or panic votes.

This is ridiculous. Unless, in spite of what you say, you do in fact want to vote for the Tories, ( which of course you would be entitled to) please reconsider! A vote for them is a vote for them.

I've voted Greens, Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dem in the past (yeah, I'm not very partisan).

Tbf there have, as I've shared elsewhere, been some awful CP leaders and serious lapses in judgement but to be fair, the current Gov have been dealt one of the worst hands in history and took over from a very low point (after the last Labour run):

1. Prolonged recession 2008-2013 (some of this period happen to coincide with a Labour gov), did not bounce back from until around 2016
2. European debt crisis (Labour Gordon Brown was disastrous selling off gold reserves, flooding the commodity market then having to buy back at huge losses, billions; same again with buying Euros, costing billions, lost our reserves and credit rating!)
3. Brexit - Cameron as PM was a Remainer and urged people to vote for Remain (tbh it was old Farage who campaigned for Brexit, essentially forcing a referendum in which people were stupid enough to vote Brexit)
4. Covid (once in a century)
5. Russia/Ukraine
6. Israel/Palestine

For what it's worth, even though with little charisma, Rishi strikes me as principled, hard working and decent. He promised inflation would be down and has delivered. I don't agree with Rwanda or his Brexit stance but I think he has a good brain on him but the CP needs to have a serious think and weed out the rubbish and evolve.

As for national service -I do wish people would have a more global view: this is discussed in numerous European countries so it is almost certainly something which is likely to be reintroduced by whoever gets into power.

Not a single one of the polls suggests Reform will get more than 7 seats. Of the 13 polling companies being analysed:

2 put them on 7
4 put them on 3
3 put them on 2
3 put them on 1
1 put them on 0

Tories are varying between 53 and 125, with a mean of 106

Lib Dems between 38 and 72, mean of 59

Labour between 425 and 516, mean of 456

Aggregating Predictions for the General Election (inglesp.github.io)

The polls are crazy, It reminds you of estate agent valuations!

About all we know is that Labour will win. I also think Reform won’t get 7 seats!

I live in the SE, there is a sea of Lib Dem signs here and I haven’t seen a single Tory sign. My DC’s friends dad is voting Reform apparently- good, they will never win here but will split sone off the Tory vote. It remains to be seen how many quiet Tories there still are.

I’m daring to dream we might finally get an MP other than our sewage allowing, Boris supporting lazy numbnut!

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

I think the only thing I have left to say to that shower is how utterly foolish Boris Johnson looked last night in his pretend silly haircut, about three times more exaggeratedly silly (even) than usual. He was trying to look like Ken Dodd, actually, another famous Tory.

Listening to TRIP this morning, they suggested a bigger majority means you’re less likely to be beholden to the extremes in your party - less need to do deals.

My view is the Tories will get around 150-160 seats, question is whether it is lower than the seats they got in 1906.

I'd be very happy if it is the YouGov 102 seats prediction, even more so if the Lib Dems are the second largest party.

The late Ken Dodd worked hard, knew his craft, and by all accounts treated Lady Dodd with respect.

You may not have liked Ken Dodd's humour, but please don't insult him by the comparison with the worst Prime Minister in history, a man who I would only spare hanging because of my lifelong opposition to the death penalty.

He promised inflation would be down and has delivered

@lbwagain Sunak delivered lower inflation? How?

Well first he raised the inflation with his special powers.

Then he lowered it again by a mind meld with international markets

If you give a politician credit for lowering inflation, you should concede it was in their gift to set it higher in the first place.

Neither scenario is true

"I am voting tory, not because I want them but because one party having a supermajority would be even worse"

Bless ya. Rishi's little sponge just soaking it all up

Exactly.

Labour activists in parts of the North think there will be a late surge for reform.

I think Reform will get at least a handful of seats, maybe up to a dozen or so if they have a good night. The confidence intervals on a lot of the polls have up to 15 or so as possible outcomes for reform.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/labour-expects-surge-of-shy-reform-voters-in-some-northern-and-midlands-seats

I am worried that people will believe this nonsense/lies about a super majority and vote tory and therefore it'll be way closer than we could imagine.

But how will you feel if they do much better than predicted because of votes like these?