So much talk about Reform, are people panicking?

[equisetum]

All across the boards people appear to be scared of just how popular they are.
If it's not panic, then why the desperation to tell anyone voting for them, that they are all racists?
Reform voters BTW, just very interested that no other parry is having such animated discussions. If they weren't becoming so popular, nobody would be talking about it.

The calibre of Reform candidates is questionable but they probably aren't going to win many seats. However, the Tories are about to get hammered and the fear of Reform becoming the viable alternative to Labour is going to see the Tory Party being driven further to the right. This is worrying for the future, but the left and centre of politics is also to blame for the west's current move rightwards. The high-handed dismissal of any concerns over immigration as being either imaginary or bigoted has left a lot of people feeling disenfranchised.

I live in an area that has had really high levels of immigration in recent years and, tbh, most of the people who have moved here are a vast improvement on the local scrotes as they tend to be religious, family-orientated and socially conservative but the housing situation has become insanely expensive, services can't cope with the new demand and the competition for jobs is so hot that employers have no incentive to improve pay and conditions. The left and centre need to start addressing people's observations and to stop the issue dragging Europe rightwards.

Translated:

'I covered everyone in spittle as I ranted about Reform for so long that everyone around me agreed with me in order to shut me up'

@Ringpeace Nah... I don't use your methods.. don't forget to take your medication

I just can’t get my head around Farage->Brexit-> tories have made a mess of Brexit-> uncosted economic policies ( and I like the 20k tax threshold) -> migrants on small boats being the problem that was created by Brexit
I am not sure he keeps up with it himself
he is the last of the shysters and the charlatans
and the big bucks are in America - even if elected I think he will be off again soon and if not his influence will be minuscule

I'm not panicking @equisetum. Reform's rise is a reaction to Tory rhetoric and collapse. Who else do the right have to vote for?

Eh, from my perspective, since the lesson we as humans keep spectactularly not learning is that the time to call out fascism is before it takes proper grip, i’m not at all mad at people challenging reform every chance they get.Again personally, a lot of the fear for me comes from the fact that many more people than are prepared to admit openly, share at least some sympathy with Reform’s outlook. And (in my opinion) we all lose out by the existence of this kind of extremism which pushes the acceptability window on intolerance towards eg: migrants, refugees, further to the right just by virtue of being there.

im quite worried about their very successful tiktok/social media campaign to promote Farage to young men, which has apparently been very successful. Lots of young people are disillusioned with the two major parties, and are looking for a vote outside of this and by aligning Farage with people like Andrew Tate and getting platforms on triggerpod etc

might not pay off in this election, but its a very clever long game

But Brexit turned out to be a steaming pile of shit, so I don’t think that’s the draw you think it is.

I am loving the whole Reform nonsense. All they’ll do is split the Tory vote. They might pick up one or two from Labour, but really, they’re a right wing party and most of their policies don’t chime with Labour values.

if reform win a few seats at this election they may well pivot their focus towards a Labour crowd at the next one

Reform's stated aim for the 2024 election is to destroy the Conservative party, leaving a vacuum to the right and paving the way for them to win in 2029.

They don't need to win seats to have enormous influence.NF (mr Brexit) is living proof of that!

I was in Lee Anderson's constituency yesterday and there were boards in people's gardens everywhere I looked.

Eh, from my perspective, since the lesson we as humans keep spectactularly not learning is that the time to call out fascism is before it takes proper grip,

The risk is you call a lot of normal people fascists and people just learn to ignore it. I'm a lefty remainer and have been called a fascist more times than I can count.

I agree with this, it is anecdotal but I know people of my Mum’s generation, not my Mum but many of her neighbours as lives in older, middle England demographic area and they openly would discuss voting for leaving the EU, hell I even know of a very educated Doctor doing so via DH family and none of them are voting Reform, it is Labour with the Doctor and probably Lib Dems/Conservatives with others. Of course I don’t know the box they will tick but some have the Lib Dem posters in the window.

I'm wondering if all the labour supporters actually AGREE with ILLEGAL immigration? Do you seriously feel the boats are the correct way to enter this country? Thar you seriously don't mind them landing on our beaches from france? If you actually took the time to listen to the Reform stance instead of calling people racists you may understand a little more. Reform are not against immigration. They are against the uncontrolled and illegal manner which is going on at present. We do need foreign labour. Everyone knows this. But it's the control which has been lost. I don't feel it is a racist attitude. Uncontrolled immigration is highly dangerous. We all know that. Some may be entering the country for a better life. Others are here for terrorist reasons. We all know that too. I want a safer Britain. Aa for the poor people in the boars, every one of them step on the boats through personal choice. When I child tragically loses its life in the channel, look at who took them onto the boat. Their parents. There are correct channels to enter the country and that is what we should be aiming for.

How would you suggest they enter? We have to take asylum seekers. It’s the law. People can jump up and down and throw a paddy about it but these two facts remain:

a) we have to take asylum seekers, as do every other county
b) there’s currently no other way for them to get here

So unless Nige agrees to processing centres in France, there’s absolutely nothing he can do about it, despite his bluster. Why the hell do people believe him??

By leaving the ECHR.

I just looked at the REFORM website to see what their policy on immigration is OP.

'Imagine Smart Immigration, Not Mass Immigration

All non-essential immigration frozen to boost wages, protect public services, end the housing crisis and cut crime.
Imagine No More Small Boats in the Channel

Illegal migrants who come to the UK will be detained and deported. And if needed, migrants in small boats will be picked up and taken back to France.'

Not a lot of meat on the bone there is there? The Conservatives have been trying to do number 1 since Brexit & numbers are at the highest ever - I presume because there are still many sectors in the UK that need people to come from abroad, NHS, Social care etc.

Number 2 - how do think that will work in practice? Do you think the Royal Navy will do it or will they create a new agency of volunteers to round people up & take them back to France?

How do you think the (possibly new Right Wing anti immigration) Government in France will react to the Royal Navy dumping asylum seekers on their beaches?

It's all very well promising all this stuff but how will it work in real life?

I'm sure you would enjoy losing all the basic protections that gives you. Not just Johnny Foreigner. YOU.

It’s the UNHCR that our asylum laws are bound to, not the ECHR. Are you really suggesting we should leave the United Nations?

Does it not concern you that that's a move to the right? Where women's rights are often deprioritised, abortion is often frowned upon, welfare is underfunded not to mention their end of NHS. Also, it's not immigration but Tory policy that's created the mess.

As a PP has mentioned, it isn’t the ECHR which gives people the right to seek asylum.

But even if it were, you think the solution is to remove EVERYONE’s rights? Including yours? Are you aware that the ECHR is the most comprehensive way in which we, as individuals, are protected by the State? And that it imposes on States obligations which make our lives better? Just one example - the ECHR is the ONLY basis in law, that the police have a legal obligation to investigate rape. There was no right to a proper investigation under the common law. It exists in no other legislation. If you think rape investigations are bad now, imagine what it would be like if there wasn’t even an obligation on the police to investigate? And there was no way to hold them to account when they don’t even bother?

Yet you care more about the tiny number of of people who seek to enforce their ECHR rights with respect to the immigration system? Madness.

“The Establishment”, Farage was educated at Dulwich College, he is The Establishment!!

I don't think it's panic, I think it's dread and political fatigue.

After recent years, many just brace for the worst possible outcome of an election, with whatever their worst outcome is and many frame even their ideal group winning still ending in things still getting worse going forward. Even with the best of intent, many see the system incentivises much of the worst.

I live in an area that's been only Reform councillors since they were all UKIP, had a Reform mayor last year. I've had unfruitful conversations with a couple of them trying to explain how immigration laws have changed in the last 10-20 years with one convinced it was only recently through pressure from people like them that non-EU, non-Commonwealth migrants can't vote; we had an incident during one of the lockdowns where three of the councillors went into a hotel carpark to film into their premises on the local rumours around refugees and had to have it slowly explained to them that hotels are business, their grounds are private property, and them being councillors doesn't change that - they posted it online like they were proud of it. I haven't been able to get a clear definition of the 'foreign workers' they intend to tax more beyond non-British passport holders...which leaves some confusion for multinationals.

That said, they're still the most visible party in the area, even if it's just tactical showing up at veterans' events for the photo op or funding an additional rubbish and bulky pick up around the New Year. Where I am, the Reform and Independent candidates are actually acting as part of the community, whereas the only thing I've seen of Labour beyond 5 or so pamphlets is the candidate and a couple of others standing in a busy road like they've forgotten pavements exist and oblivious to issues with traffic they were causing. When I saw him at our local elections, he was kinda demeaning - he was asked to slow down as he was talking really fast and he just laughed and continued, largely acted like he was trying to speed through to get away from us plebs. The Tory candidate is mainly arguing with people online and not seen the Lib Dems or Greens at all. I get why people vote Reform when they're more engaged with the community than others - it's not even policies much of the time, it's preferring someone they know to someone who only shows up (or doesn't and is just a name) for elections.

I'm voting Independent. I had a laugh earlier with my husband about what would happen if everyone got so fed up with the party system that we all voted Independent and ended up with 650 Independent MPs. My husband is voting tactically though we're largely in a safe seat - we saw what happened to many safe seats last time - but I'm just a little tired of fighting tactics at this point.

Nobody is panicking about Reform, most of its votership can’t even work out how to tie their shoe laces in the morning, never mind find their way to the polling stations.

They’ll get about 3% of the national vote and that’s it.