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General election 2024

Labour can't win

904 replies

verdantverdure · 29/06/2024 18:46

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

OP posts:
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EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 14:58

Boomer55 · 04/07/2024 08:54

A lot of 18-24 year olds around here said, when interviewed, they liked Reform policies best. Who knows?

It’ll be interesting if this picks up as it has in other countries

I had a related thought that younger people access information in other ways. Less likely to be the BBC these days

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 15:01

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 14:55

This isn’t happening anymore.

The demographics have changed. The more educated you are the more left wing you tend to be. The population now is much better educated than the over 65’s.

The parties have swapped over. Labour was the party of the working class, and the Tories the party of the professional class.

Now the working class vote Tory or Reform and the educated professional class vote Labour.

This is becoming more and more evident. London and the big northern cities have more graduates and professionals. These vote Labour. Towns vote Conservative, they have fewer graduates.

The young vote Labour mainly or Reform. I think the Tories are just finished. Who do they appeal to now? An ageing population who are dying off.

Edited

Their voter base is diminishing rapidly. Only 40% of people over 65 intend voting for them today. Another ten years and they’ll have precious few supporters left.

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:01

Emmanuelll · 04/07/2024 14:54

I think that's too simplistic. Boomers are the current 'more conservative.

Gen Z are a very different generation.

Until they become the old people.

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:04

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:01

Until they become the old people.

It’s all conditional anyway. Look at France. Educated and similar ages etc

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 15:05

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:01

Until they become the old people.

Old people are changing their voting behaviour. Only 40% of over 65s vote Tory now.

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:07

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 14:58

It’ll be interesting if this picks up as it has in other countries

I had a related thought that younger people access information in other ways. Less likely to be the BBC these days

I do think there will be a tendency towards more right wing politics in the west as western culture and global dominance comes increasingly threatened. In times of threat people tend to lock down against “outsiders” and non-traditional views. The world is effectively at war or at least in advance preparations for one . We are on a war footing, this includes revering to strong tribalism .

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:08

BIossomtoes · 04/07/2024 15:05

Old people are changing their voting behaviour. Only 40% of over 65s vote Tory now.

How is that percentage calculated

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:11

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:07

I do think there will be a tendency towards more right wing politics in the west as western culture and global dominance comes increasingly threatened. In times of threat people tend to lock down against “outsiders” and non-traditional views. The world is effectively at war or at least in advance preparations for one . We are on a war footing, this includes revering to strong tribalism .

I think we’ll see it in fact we already are. Maybe due to this bit atm I’d say due to migration pressures which will increase due to climate

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:17

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:11

I think we’ll see it in fact we already are. Maybe due to this bit atm I’d say due to migration pressures which will increase due to climate

Yes I think there is going to be such a massive change to the way our world is, resource guarding and cultural protection are going to become so important. We need to take steps now to ease into this new epoch otherwise there are going to be even worse problems in the future.

verdantverdure · 04/07/2024 15:26

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 14:36

I do think the young people vote Labour, old people vote Tory, so just need to wait for the old people to die off is rather I’ll informed.

Those young people get old and often switch to be aligned more with conservative values. So the group voting Tory just gets replenished. Life experience often makes people more conservative both with a small and capital c.

The crossover from majority left leaning to majority right leaning used to happen about 40, but it doesn’t really happen anymore.

The current crossover point is 71.

Labour can't win
OP posts:
EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:29

What about in France and other EU countries shifting away from the left?

Larger vote share to the right, someone must be giving them top spot whatever age

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 15:35

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:29

What about in France and other EU countries shifting away from the left?

Larger vote share to the right, someone must be giving them top spot whatever age

I think it’s more of a shifting from the centre.

Some EU countries have very left wing governments.

IamaRevenant · 04/07/2024 15:36

verdantverdure · 02/07/2024 17:02

GrinGrinGrin

Oh god he's really going all in for the 'man of the people' image isn't he 😅

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:37

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 15:35

I think it’s more of a shifting from the centre.

Some EU countries have very left wing governments.

France may go far right though?

Or do you mean Le Pen is centre

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:38

So just under double the amount would vote Tory than Labour.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 15:38

EasternStandard · 04/07/2024 15:37

France may go far right though?

Or do you mean Le Pen is centre

Edited

Yeah, but they are are either right wing or left wing. Very much like the 30’s😟

Devonbabs · 04/07/2024 15:40

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 15:38

Yeah, but they are are either right wing or left wing. Very much like the 30’s😟

It’s a polarisation. Extreme politics is extreme politics whether right or left. Extreme left is no more friendly than extreme right

dropoutin · 04/07/2024 19:36

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/07/2024 15:35

I think it’s more of a shifting from the centre.

Some EU countries have very left wing governments.

Which EU countries have governments that are further left now than they have been on average historically?

verdantverdure · 04/07/2024 21:16

I ask my son about the young people far right thing and he said it's an Incel Thingie Tate thing, but also that there are bellends in all age groups. (He's had half a cider Grin)

OP posts:
Anniegetyourgun · 04/07/2024 21:42

@verdantverdure Your son is a perspicacious fellow.

verdantverdure · 04/07/2024 21:55

Anniegetyourgun · 04/07/2024 21:42

@verdantverdure Your son is a perspicacious fellow.

He's very well brought up you know Grin

OP posts:
SnowFrogJelly · 05/07/2024 01:10

Oh Yes They Can! 👏

CassieMaddox · 05/07/2024 01:25
Excited Season 7 GIF by The Office

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TeamPolin · 05/07/2024 02:45

Well this post is aging badly....