Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

The only polls in recent times that weren't right were 2015 (which predicted a hung parliament I think) and Brexit. In both those cases there was only 2% or 3% in it. Before that there was 1992, but again the polls were narrow.

But I know what you mean. It is a bit nerve wracking.

Yeah, it’s really unlikely the bookies will be far off the mark.

For Clav, to pin on your wall

Only if we vote to make it happen.

Survation has quite a range:

That is an excellent point, well made 👏
Had not realised that but it should reduce the amount of prisoners "transitioning" for perks

I’d like to see the Reform vote collapse even if that means a reduced Labour majority.

Agree with getting out to vote, but even if all the other parties achieved the high figures and Labour only achieved its low figure, still a massive majority!

Agreed. I’d prefer a few more Tory seats to Reform getting anywhere if I had to choose between them.

Agree.

The most interesting thing about those Survation figures is that it’s really too close to call who the opposition will be.

Me too.
I hope the scales have dropped from some eyes over some of the happenings in the last week though. The defectors are heartening that a lot of people hadn't realised what Reform truly stood for.
All my teenagers have seen the Channel 4 thing on their social media and have talked to me about it so I really think it cut through, and not in a helpful way for farage.

I am very excited about the prospect of a Lib Dem opposition holding Labour to account.

The Tories failure is so huge and do all-encompassing that they have no moral authority in any policy area.

Does anyone remember Robin Cook being magnanimous in victory in 1997 and acknowledging the huge part the Conservatives played in the Labour landslide? I hope someone can make the same point on Friday. He was just so dry.

According to what I've just read:

– All polls give Labour a big lead nationally, but they diverge wildly on how many seats that will translate to. Pollsters agree on who is set to win in just 317 of the 631 constituencies in the country.

– Margins are tight. More than 100 constituencies are predicted to be won on 35% of the vote or less. In 2019 that number was 3.

– There’s a time lag in the polls. Constituency level polling takes weeks – so shifts in voting intention that have taken place in the last few days won’t show up yet.

Disagree.

Every Tory seat that turns Reform increases the chance that the Tories come third and the lib dems take over as opposition. That would be worth suffering a few more fascists screaming bollocks about immigrants for the next five years.

I really don't agree.

Much as I would love the Lib Dems to be the opposition I would sacrifice that
to have zero Reform UK PLC seats. I don't want them to have the oxygen to air their racism, homophobia, transphobia and ableism. They would embolden others with the same views and many people would feel afraid.

It’s what happens after the next five years if Reform get a foothold in parliament and thus in the media in the next five years that I’m thinking about.

Yep. They already get more than enough airtime.

Yet you seem happy to give Labour and the Lib Dem’s room to air their misogyny

Not to mention promoting Andrew Tate and similar misogynist ideas.

Yes. I should have included that.

A lot of 18-24 year olds around here said, when interviewed, they liked Reform policies best. Who knows?

I do think the young people vote Labour, old people vote Tory, so just need to wait for the old people to die off is rather I’ll informed.

Those young people get old and often switch to be aligned more with conservative values. So the group voting Tory just gets replenished. Life experience often makes people more conservative both with a small and capital c.

I think that's too simplistic. Boomers are the current 'more conservative.

Gen Z are a very different generation.

This isn’t happening anymore.

The demographics have changed. The more educated you are the more left wing you tend to be. The population now is much better educated than the over 65’s.

The parties have swapped over. Labour was the party of the working class, and the Tories the party of the professional class.

Now the working class vote Tory or Reform and the educated professional class vote Labour.

This is becoming more and more evident. London and the big northern cities have more graduates and professionals. These vote Labour. Towns vote Conservative, they have fewer graduates.

The young vote Labour mainly or Reform. I think the Tories are just finished. Who do they appeal to now? An ageing population who are dying off.