Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

Unless the Welsh realise that it's a Labour Government in Wales and all the problems they have caused, NHS, 20mph rule for example then perhaps they won't but I very much doubt they will vote differently.

There is a misguided concept that Labour is "for the workers" and a whiff of stopping immigration will ensure votes, even though it will be very low down on their priorities if the get into power. Their manifesto is probably about the same things as the Conservatives when they took power from Labour in 2010. Has anything dramatically changed?

Blimey!

Most if them are here in good jobs .Some wanted jobs further afield. And they have them. They aren't angry over Brexit the way their parents are.

I'm talking about general anxiety over the state of things. Not the trend to talk about personal mental health more openly.
All the young people I know rich and poor think they will be able to find work. They all see opportunities. Housing is expensive but the younger ones are all house sharing.
Climate change and the environment are the 80's nuclear war, the AIDS epidemic, the 90's recession, the 2000's terrorism threat and latterly Covid .There's always something bigger to worry about.
But I don't see the younger generation being as pessimistic as we are.

I said a fair few not all

a fair few countries are seeing a shift to the right:

And I'm underlining that some countries are not. While people try and pretend that we are outliers by not following the trend right in Europe it's important to remember we are not alone.

Well they’re going to “rocket “ when the reds get in
vorderman and linaker will be absolutely livid 😂

But I don't see the younger generation being as pessimistic as we are.

The young people I know are far more pessimistic than me. It’s ridiculous to say they’re not aware of what’s been taken away from them. One I know wanted to do an MA in Amsterdam - EU fees €3k, rest of the world €16k. So that’s off the table. That’s just one example.

Are Labour going to bring in more 20mph zones in England as well? The statistics showing the road safety improvement in Wales since the change are impressive.
Excellent they have my vote.

Vorderman and Lineker both strike me as the kind of people who wouldn’t turn a hair at paying more tax. They probably wouldn’t even notice.

It’s not pretence, we are going against a more noticeable shift that many political commentators are discussing

Poland will have very low impact on us whereas France’s decision will have greater impact

Oh boy! Nevermind. You keep going. Enjoy Friday.

Well obviously they won’t be otherwise they wouldn’t be backing them so openly.

More likely they accept they are in a position of privilege and are happy to pay the cost that comes with that knowing it’s nothing to them.

Fine by me if you accept you’re ignoring commentary

It won’t change the impact

Going back to the link between education levels and political affiliation, the research in the Netherlands (where Geert Wilders won the biggest share of the vote), that link has been shown to be massively powerful.

I'll be very interested to see how things develop over there - a government has been formed and it includes Wilders, but in the process all his most extreme policies have had to be ditched. It remains to be seen how loyal his followers will be after he's had a few years in the establishment.

The parallels with the UK are also there - the VVD has had 13 years in government and in that time has presided over scandals and an increase in inequality. It also has to be said that the left wing PVDA/Green collaborative did well in the elections in November. The picture is more complex than just 'swing to the right', though that is clearly part of it.

France will have no more impact on this country than any of the other 26 in the EU. Or do you think they’re going to invade us? I hope not because we haven’t spent enough on defence recently to repel them.

And what impact is that?

Apparently not after all;

This article was amended on 16 January 2024. An earlier version stated incorrectly that Keir Starmer took the job of representing Hizb ut-Tahrir under “cab rank” rules.

Why would 'cab rank' rules in the UK apply to a German law and a foreign court anyway?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/15/islamist-group-hizb-ut-tahrir-to-be-banned-organising-uk

You are one of the seriously misinformed people on this thread.

Even if every Conservative and Reform voter voted for a combined party (which they wouldn't), that party would still trail Labour according to the latest poll of polls.

Are there more French people or Polish people in the UK?

A far right gov in France will have policy that impacts us as they get more hardline on immigration which will act as a push factor

Beyond sarcasm from the left I’m not seeing much to counter

I’m also not seeing anything from Labour on what they’d do about that so I guess we’ll see

Have a look at some actual representative surveys some time, instead of saying what you personally see. Presumably from a reasonably- very privileged bubble? The young people you know certainly aren't like my 23 year old DS or any of his friends.

These young people... do they own property out of interest? Don't know about you but I was on the property ladder at 25. In my second home at 32.

Nothing would make me happier than seeing the lib dems replace the Tories as the go-to party of the centre right. But alas, it's not going to happen. Even taking the worst predictions floating around for the Tories, none of the polls show the lib dems getting anywhere near them.

People need to understand the perversions of First Past The Post, the constituency system and the effects of geographical concentration or not of votes. It's far from a simple question of how many people like or hate each party.

Labour will win, the Tories will come second though we don't know by how much. The problem then will be that Labour have won led by a lying establishment stooge, with a timid manifesto failing to acknowledge any of the real change that needs to occur to improve peoples' lives, and with no intention of changin our corrupt undemocratic voting system. So the widespread resentment and disengagement that has gotten us to where we are will still be there in 2029.

The Tories, who have already been split down the middle into a traditional party of liberal-conservative values and a rabble of racist, authoritarian populist nutjobs, will then have to cement that split, one way or the other, by their choice of new leader. If it's one of the nutjobs, their obvious route back to power will then be merging with Reform.

And then the culture wars of Brexit will look like a teddy bears' picnic.

It only takes small percentages of the electorate to change their vote in key seats for a landslide. Which is why proportional representation is a fairer way of getting what people would actually like.

Don't believe everything you read. Do you live in Wales where main roads are 20mph? It's not just side streets or where there are schools. I've seen a 30mph sign at traffic lights and a 20mph sign across the road after the traffic lights. There is a 20mph sign outside a school, fine but a 30mph sign around the corner from the school going past a hospital. It's constantly changing and I very rarely use 3rd gear and definitely not 4th these days. Reducing pollution is just as important.

There was a great interview with Thanggam Debonnaire in the ST today which made me feel very optimistic for the future of culture and the Arts. Hopefully, she'll keep her seat.