Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

Some polls show them getting c.20% of the vote. Now that may not translate into seats, but one in 5 voters choosing Reform is significant, regardless of the seats they win.

Not all are by any means.

They haven’t experienced Brexit. Young, educated people here can see very clearly the opportunities the right has robbed them of and they’re angry about it.

I'm not sure why everyone assumes that Reform won't be mopping up potential Labour votes too, especially for those areas that were historically Labour but voted for Conservative in the last election and for Brexit too. I don't think Labour in England will be recapturing those seats. Scotland however may well contribute to an overall Labour majority.

@Bobbotgegrinch

Education or the lack of it is more of a dividing line nowadays than anything.

And it's pretty firmly left to right.

The poor souls on social media blindly repeating Nigel Farage's lie about the Channel 4 undercover clip being a set up with actors aren't the brightest buttons are they?

Either that or they lack morals and don't mind repeating lies.

Reform target areas with a grievance, that feel left behind or ignored. Areas that score high on the Deprivation Index as a rule. (The BNP do the same thing.)

Again a fair few countries are seeing a shift to the right:

I guess we’ll see what happens in France tomorrow

They can win and they will

20% across the board would be disquieting but I can’t imagine it.

@EasternStandard Maybe it's a purely British phenomenon. You'd have to check for international research.

Age is still a factor too.

I think it is a British phenomenon because of Brexit. The irony is striking. It’s like a cosmic joke if the right has destroyed its own future in the UK.

Child trust fund money? How much do you think that was per person? The cost of living payments from the Conservatives were more btw

We can but hope.

I don't see how the Tories can hold anyone to account when they have failed so spectacularly.

We knew what you meant

Same. (With a boundary change though.)

I can't imagine what we'll be looking at this time next week.

I know Labour needs a 12% swing to get a majority, but beyond that...

???????????????

Are they not?

Cos I have strong opinions about them but I haven't looked at their manifesto and I refuse to listen to anything they say.

I do worry about shy Tories.

I don't think people want to admit that they plan to vote for the guys who put up our mortgages, nearly collapsed our pensions, have all but destroyed our public services and lie to us constantly.

Corbyn was left and was rejected. Now you worry about Starmer not being left but you were worried about Corbyn? Not really sure what your concerns are from your comments or where you align

That would be be wildly at odds with the polls. Polls can be wrong of course, but all of them?

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

I think it being such a switch on those predicted electoral maps from blue to red, I don't trust it!

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

I find it a lot easier to understand how we might get more Green MPs than Reform ones.

Not long to go now… 🤞

Labour 380-400 seats. Reform will take votes from the tories but Labour & Lib Dem will win the seats.

Well there’s not so many of those these days.

Seats like Mansfield & Ashfield will go back to Labour, tactical voting in seats where the Tories only have a small majority are the ones where they have the best chance of losing them. Tactical voting will have a big effect on results.